scholarly journals A system of key indicators enabling the forecasting of changes in the capital costs of a construction project

Vestnik MGSU ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 220-241
Author(s):  
Dmitry A. Vlasov ◽  
Alexander O. Gabrielov

Introduction. Reduction of project cost overruns is a key objective of Russian production facilities against the background of tightening domestic and international market competition, a spike in the number of projects implemented within the framework of the investment programme, including large strategic investment projects, scarcity and high costs of sources of financing. The mission of this research is to offer an approach to the development of a system of key risk indicators of an construction project that will allow the management team to make decisions ahead of the occurrence of risk-bearing events to reduce cost overruns and to stay within the pre-set budget values in terms of capital costs of a project. Materials and methods. The co-authors have analyzed currently used approaches, instruments and methods, applicable to the development of the system of key project indicators, and classified project risks using the Ishikawa diagram. Their approach encompasses instruments and methods of the risk theory (identification and assessment of risks and key project indicators), as well as instruments of the regression correlation analysis. Results. The co-authors present an algorithm for the development of a system of key risk indicators and an approach to the listing of key project indicators broken down by project significance criteria. Conclusions. The application of the proposed approach to highly significant projects will ensure a detailed project-specific listing of key project indicators applicable to monitor the project implementation. A standard set of instruments and methods, requiring minimal human resources and time, can be applied to other projects. Besides the new approach, the co-authors offer a description of a list of potential key project indicators that enable to forecast changes in capital costs, broken down by risk factors.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6933
Author(s):  
Aziz Naghizadeh Vardin ◽  
Ramin Ansari ◽  
Mohammad Khalilzadeh ◽  
Jurgita Antucheviciene ◽  
Romualdas Bausys

Sustainable development of any country to some extent depends on successful accomplishment of construction projects, particularly infrastructures. Contractors have a key role in the success of these projects. Hence, the selection of a competent contractor as a complicated and hard decision process has a vital importance in the destiny of any construction project. Contractor selection is in essence a multicriteria decision-making that ought to encompass so many aspects of the project and the client’s requirements on one hand and the capabilities and past records of the contractors on the other hand. Failure in selecting a competent contractor may cause time and cost overruns; quality shortcomings; increasing in claims, disputes and change orders; and even failure of the project. In spite of deficiencies of selecting a contractor by the rule of “the lowest bid price”, it still prevails in many countries including Iran. In this paper, a new contractor selection model based on the best-worst method (BWM) and well-known Fuzzy-VIKOR techniques is proposed as a solution to overcome the deficiencies of the traditional “lowest bid price” rule. An illustrative example of a water channel construction project verified the applicability of the proposed model in practice.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-88
Author(s):  
Svetlana Mikhailovna SYCHEVA ◽  
◽  
Elena Yury’evna KUZMINA ◽  

The article discusses the features of the implementation of investment projects in the construction industry, the main trends in project management in this area. The importance of the construction industry for the country’s economy is substantiated, the key indicators of the construction sector and its contribution to GDP are highlighted. The analysis of the development of the construction industry for the period from 2009 to 2020 is carried out. The reasons for the decrease in investment in construction are identified, among them the most important ones are highlighted. In the article discusses the key characteristics of the construction industry in our country. The conclusion is made about the need for a systematic and integrated approach to the management of investment projects. The authors propose to use the tools of project management to improve the efficiency of the implementation of investment projects. The main tools of project management (tools for defragmentation of work, tools for managing the time in the project, tools for managing resources for project implementation, tools for managing project costs) are named and examples of their use are given. The concepts of «team», «project management team», «matrix of responsibility» are considered.


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 03031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Nezhnikova ◽  
Valentin Kashirin ◽  
Yana Davydova ◽  
Svetlana Kazakova

The article presents the analysis of the existing methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of high-rise construction. The authors determined and justified the primary choice of objects and territories that are the most attractive for the development of high-rise construction. A system of risk indicators has been developed that allow making a quantitative adjustment for a particular project in the evaluation of the efficiency of investment projects. The study is aimed at developing basic methodological concepts for a comparative evaluation of the prospects of construction of high-rise facilities that allow to take into consideration the features of investment in construction and to enable quantitative evaluation of the investment effectiveness in high-rise construction.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Saidu ◽  
W Shakantu ◽  
A Adamu ◽  
I Anugwo

The problems of material waste and cost overruns are common in the construction industry. These problems occur at different stages of a construction project, from planning, design to project completion. The argument on how to eliminate cost overrun has been on-going for the past 70 years as on-site wastage of materials leads to increase in the final project cost. This paper examines the relationship between the causes of material waste and those of cost overrun at the pre-contract and post-contract stages of a project. The desktop methodological approach was firstly adopted in comparing the causes of material waste and those of cost overruns from the literature, in order to determine the possible relationship. Subsequently, interviews were purposively conducted with construction professionals within Abuja, Nigeria, in order to verify the literature based information. The result reveals that all the causes of material waste also cause cost overrun at the pre-contract and the post-contract stages of a project. 96.88% and 81.81% of the causes of cost overrun also cause material waste at the pre-contract and post-contract stages respectively. Other causes which are not related are mostly, the micro-economic and macro-economic factors. These results are not different from those of the interviews conducted with professionals and summarised in the tick box. It was also found that to achieve Effective Construction Material Waste Management (ECMWM) for any construction project, material waste must be controlled at its sources and causes, and at different stages of a project. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that effective management of material waste would translate into a reduction in the level of project cost overrun. The study recommends that construction-project managers, as well as the construction practitioners should encourage the management of material-waste causes, as it has the potential to minimise cost overrun for projects. 


2019 ◽  
Vol 279 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
Martin Hotový

This paper presents the use of tools and approaches of system dynamics in the analysis of the efficiency of BIM tools implementation in relation to the management and planning of investments in the construction sector. The dynamic model based on the approach of system dynamics allows to simulate the impact rate (range) of BIM implementation in strategic investment decision-making in the construction sector. Based on the analysis, the key parameters critically affecting the large construction investment projects are determined. The proposed model is implemented as a submodel in the dynamic model designed for potential refinements in the strategic planning of the extent of investments into projects of civil infrastructure of the Czech Republic. The model allows to test different strategies in the virtual world before their implementation. The prediction of future developments based on the proposed model allows to streamline planning and decision-making processes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnė Pivorienė

Abstract In today’s uncertain and highly competitive business environment, the difficulty to make strategic investment decisions is growing. The dominant discounted cash flow analysis requires the assumption of perfect certainty of project cash flows. However, under uncertainty traditional DCF approach falls short of providing adequate strategic decision support, and this situation demands new methods for investment evaluation. Real options approach (ROA) has shown the potential for valuation of strategic corporate investment decisions and managerial flexibility in situations of high uncertainty. Under ROA, projects are viewed as real options that can be valued using financial option pricing techniques. This framework allows their owner to keep investment options open and to benefit from the upside potential of an opportunity while controlling the downside risk. The main aim of this research is to investigate the feasibility of real options approach and traditional DCF analysis for assessment of strategic investment projects under environmental uncertainty.


2014 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 456-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aminu Darda’u Rafindadi ◽  
Miljan Mikić ◽  
Iva Kovačić ◽  
Zoran Cekić

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Hafida Lmoussaoui ◽  
Hicham Jamouli

<p>Because of their specific and complex characteristics, construction projects are exposed to numerous risks of various natures, which make their management more difficult. In this setting, Project Risk Management is an indispensable activity for their successful delivery. It consists in the risk identification, assessment, prioritization, treatment, monitoring and control. This paper presents a novel approach for the identification of construction project risks and a network theory-based methodology for their modelling and analysis. These models serve as a powerful tools comparing to classical methods and provide a support for decision-making regarding Project Risk Management. A case study of a real construction project is used to illustrate these findings.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyan Jin ◽  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Fei Xu ◽  
Rongliang Ji ◽  
Zhilei Liu

 With the continuous growth of social economy and the continuous development of cities and industries, the construction industry is still on the rise. Today, various raw materials and resources are still lacking, and fierce market competition has led to the development of construction companies. With the improvement of the requirements, how to optimize the dynamic management and cost management of construction cost in the construction process of the construction company is the only way for the construction company to obtain the market trust and approval, and to obtain the maximum profit. On the basis of introducing the dynamic management and cost control optimization of construction project cost, this article has carried on the related research from the aspects of principles, obstacles and steps.


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