Application of Several Artificial Intelligence Models for Forecasting Meteorological Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index in the Saïss Plain (Northern Morocco)

Accurate monitoring and forecasting of drought are crucial. They play a vital role in the optimal functioning of irrigation systems, risk management, drought readiness, and alleviation. In this work, Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, comprising Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) and Co-Active Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (CANFIS), and regression, model including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), were investigated for multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) prediction in the Garhwal region of Uttarakhand State, India. The SPI was computed on six different scales, i.e., 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month, by deploying monthly rainfall information of available years. The significant lags as inputs for the MLPNN, CANFIS, and MLR models were obtained by utilizing Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) with a significant level equal to 5% for SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-9, SPI-12, and SPI-24. The predicted multi-scalar SPI values utilizing the MLPNN, CANFIS, and MLR models were compared with calculated SPI of multi-time scales through different performance evaluation indicators and visual interpretation. The appraisals of results indicated that CANFIS performance was more reliable for drought prediction at Dehradun (3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month scales), Chamoli and Tehri Garhwal (1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month scales), Haridwar and Pauri Garhwal (1-, 3-, 6-, and 9-month scales), Rudraprayag (1-, 3-, and 6-month scales), and Uttarkashi (3-month scale) stations. The MLPNN model was best at Dehradun (1- and 24- month scales), Tehri Garhwal and Chamoli (24-month scale), Haridwar (12- and 24-month scales), Pauri Garhwal (12-month scale), Rudraprayag (9-, 12-, and 24-month), and Uttarkashi (1- and 6-month scales) stations, while the MLR model was found to be optimal at Pauri Garhwal (24-month scale) and Uttarkashi (9-, 12-, and 24-month scales) stations. Furthermore, the modeling approach can foster a straightforward and trustworthy expert intelligent mechanism for projecting multi-scalar SPI and decision making for remedial arrangements to tackle meteorological drought at the stations under study.

Download Full-text

Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological drought in Romania using the standardized precipitation index (SPI)

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr01245 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 60 (3) ◽

pp. 235-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

S Cheval ◽

A Busuioc ◽

A Dumitrescu ◽

MV Birsan

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Spatiotemporal Variability ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index

Download Full-text

Análisis comparativo de índices de sequía en Andalucía para el periodo 1901-2012

Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica ◽

10.18172/cig.2946 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 42 (1) ◽

pp. 67 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

M. Peña-Gallardo ◽

S. R. Gámiz-Fortís ◽

Y. Castro-Diez ◽

M. J. Esteban-Parra

Keyword(s):

Time Windows ◽

Initial Period ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Global Evaluation ◽

Temporal Behaviour ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the detection and evolution of droughts occurred in Andalusia for the period 1901-2012, by applying three different drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Drought-Precipitation Index (IESP), computed for three time windows from the initial period 1901-2012. This analysis has been carried out after a preliminary study of precipitation trends with the intention of understanding the precipitation behaviour, because this climatic variable is one of the most important in the study of extreme events. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to investigate and characterize the meteorological drought events, mainly the most important episodes in Andalusia; (2) to provide a global evaluation of the capacities of the three different considered indices in order to characterize the drought in a heterogeneous climatically territory; and (3) to describe the temporal behaviour of precipitation and drought indices series in order to establish the general characteristics of their evolution in Andalusia. The results have shown that not all the indices respond similarly identifying the intensity and duration of dry periods in this kind of region where geographical and climatic variability is one of the main elements to be considered.

Download Full-text

Analysis of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Serbia

Facta universitatis - series Architecture and Civil Engineering ◽

10.2298/fuace1403253m ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 253-264 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mladen Milanovic ◽

Milan Gocic ◽

Slavisa Trajkovic

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Precipitation Extreme ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Intensity ◽

The North ◽

Rainfall Index ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Year 2000

Drought represents a combined heat-precipitation extreme and has become an increasingly frequent phenomenon in recent years. In order to access the entire analysis of drought, it is necessary to include the analysis of several types of drought. In this paper, impacts of meteorological and agricultural drought were analyzed across the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Agricultural Rainfall Index (ARI) on the territory of Serbia for the period from 1980 to 2010. For both types of drought, year 2000 is notable as the year when most of the observed stations had the highest drought intensity. It was found that meteorological drought for year 2000 has a higher intensity in the central and southeastern parts of the country, as well as in the north. Of all the stations, the highest intensity of meteorological drought was observed at Loznica station in 1989. Agricultural drought in 2000 had the lowest intensity in western Serbia.

Download Full-text

Meteorological Drought Index Mapping in Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index during 1981–2010

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2017/4642060 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2017 ◽

pp. 1-17 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Md. Anarul Haque Mondol ◽

Iffat Ara ◽

Subash Chandra Das

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Spatiotemporal Variations ◽

Distance Weighted ◽

Index Mapping ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Inverse Distance

Natural disasters are a major concern in Bangladesh, particularly drought which is one of the most common disaster in Bangladesh. Drought needs to be explained spatially to understand its spatiotemporal variations in different areas. In this paper, the meteorological drought has been shown by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method and illustrated through the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method across Bangladesh. We used rainfall data of 30 meteorological stations in Bangladesh during the study period of 1981–2010. The results indicate that drought has been fluctuating and it has become a recurrent phenomenon during the study period. The SPI depicted the drought conditions that plunged dramatically in 1981, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1996 and then gradually improved in 2004, 2006, and 2009 in the country. The present study demonstrated that drought occurred in Bangladesh on an average of 2.5 years. Drought was more prominent in the northern, south-western, and eastern regions in Bangladesh compared to the rest of the areas of the country. The outcomes of the present study will help in during disaster management strategies, particularly drought, by initiating effective plans and adaptation remedies in different areas of Bangladesh.

Download Full-text

COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL INDICES AND SATELLITE DATA FOR DROUGHT MONITORING IN TWO DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTS IN IRAN

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-4-w18-197-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽

pp. 197-200

Author(s):

M. Behifar ◽

A. A. Kakroodi ◽

M. Kiavarz ◽

F. Amiraslani

Keyword(s):

Satellite Data ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Spatial Characteristic ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Precipitation Data ◽

Spi Index ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. The main problem using meteorological drought indices include inappropriate distribution of meteorological stations. Satellite data have reliable spatial and temporal resolution and provide valuable information used in many different applications. The Standardized precipitation index has several advantages. The SPI is based on rainfall data alone and has a variable time scale and is thus conducive to describing drought conditions for different application.This study aims to calculate SPI using satellite precipitation data and compare the results with traditional methods. To do this, satellite-based precipitation data were assessed against station data and then the standardized precipitation index was calculated. The results have indicated that satellite-based SPI could illustrate drought spatial characteristic more accurate than station-based index. Also, the standardized property of the SPI index allows comparisons between different locations, which is one of the remote sensing drought indices limitations.

Download Full-text

Evaluation of meteorological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the High Ziz River basin, Morocco

Limnological Review ◽

10.2478/limre-2019-0011 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 125-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Khadija Diani ◽

Ilias Kacimi ◽

Mahmoud Zemzami ◽

Hassan Tabyaoui ◽

Ali Torabi Haghighi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Significant Trend ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Complex Nature ◽

Positive Trend ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract One of the adverse impacts of climate change is drought, and the complex nature of droughts makes them one of the most important climate hazards. Drought indices are generally used as a tool for monitoring changes in meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and economic conditions. In this study, we focused on meteorological drought events in the High Ziz river Basin, central High Atlas, Morocco. The application of drought index analysis is useful for drought assessment and to consider methods of adaptation and mitigation to deal with climate change. In order to analyze drought in the study area, we used two different approaches for addressing the change in climate and particularly in precipitation, i) to assess the climate variability and change over the year, and ii) to assess the change within the year timescale (monthly, seasonally and annually) from 1971 to 2017. In first approach, precipitation data were used in a long time scale e.g. annual and more than one-year period. For this purpose, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was considered to quantify the rainfall deficit for multiple timescales. For the second approach, trend analysis (using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test) was applied to precipitation in different time scales within the year. The results showed that the study area has no significant trend in annual rainfall, but in terms of seasonal rainfall, the magnitude of rainfall during summer revealed a positive significant trend in three stations. A significant negative and positive trend in monthly rainfall was observed only in April and August, respectively.

Download Full-text