scholarly journals Estimasi model neraca perdagangan Indonesia dalam periode 1998-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Liza Azizah ◽  
Syamsurijal Tan ◽  
Emilia Emilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Balance Dynamics ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims to analyze Indonesia's trade balance dynamics and the factors that influence fluctuations in Indonesia's trade balance in the period 1998-2017. The method used in this study is a quantitative descriptive method. The data used in this study is time-series data on Indonesia's trade balance, exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates from 1998-2017. The data is processed through multiple regression analysis and development model analysis. The results showed that the variables of the exchange rate, GDP, inflation, and interest rates simultaneously significantly affected Indonesia's trade balance. Partially, the exchange rate, GDP, and interest rates have a significant effect on Indonesia's trade balance. In contrast, inflation does not substantially impact Indonesia's trade balance during the study period. R-square is 0.6882 or 68.82%, which means that Indonesia's trade balance for 1998-2017 is influenced by exchange rates, GDP, inflation, and interest rates, while other factors outside the estimation model influence the remaining 31.18%. Keywords: Trade balance, Exchange rate, GDP, Inflation, Interest rates.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

scholarly journals EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyad Mustaqim ◽  
Saparuddin Mukhtar ◽  
Tuty Sariwulan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

Monetary Policy and Nigeria's Trade Balance, 1980-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-138
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Kanang Amos Akims
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

Several countries have integrated monetary easement into their foreign policy to faucet the gains from trade thereby, assuring that market forces determine monetary policy instruments such as interest rate and exchange rate. It is on this note and this paper empirically evaluate the effect of monetary policy on Nigeria's trade balance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model on the time series data spanning from 1980 to 2018. The findings reveal that monetary policy tools of real interest and effective exchange rate have a long-run co-integration relationship and significant adverse effects on Nigeria's trade balance both in the short-run and long-run. Thus, the paper concludes that monetary policy is a veritable tool through which Nigeria can maintain a favorable trade balance. Therefore, policymakers should step on measures that will maintain low-interest rates to sustain a flexible exchange rate and remove all rigidities associated with the international payment system.JEL Classification: C22, E52, F13How to Cite:Sakanko, M. A., & Akims, K. A. (2021). Monetary Policy and Nigeria’s Trade Balance, 1980-2018. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 129-138. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.18132.

scholarly journals Analysing the Exchange Rate Volatility Relative to Trade Balance: The Case of SACU Countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-74
Author(s):  
Christine M. Haansende ◽  
Jacob M. Nyambe
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The term exchange rate volatility is widely used in the financial market. The exchange rate is determined in the foreign exchange market, which is said to be the largest market in the world and it trades in financial assets. The main focus of this study is to analyse the nature of the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the selected member states of the SACU region in which the selected countries are Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland and South Africa. This study uses time series data from the period of 1986 to 2016. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, the impulse response functions and variance decompositions are used in the analysis. Results show that there is a short-run relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade balance. It was found that there is a positive and negative impact between these two variables, with high volatility. Furthermore, this study recommends all Central Banks in the SACU region to intervene in order to mitigate exchange rate volatility.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of The Rupiah Exchange Rate in 2017-2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arief Aldila Susanto ◽  
Rr. Retno Retno Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p align="justify">The exchange rate is one of the most important indicators in the economy. Moreover, with the increasing intensity of trade between countries, commonly referred to as international trade, this economic indicator becomes important for every country, including Indonesia. The change in the Indonesian exchange rate system to a free-floating system has made the exchange rate fluctuations more dynamic. The fluctuations are influenced by various factors, both internal and external. This study aims to determine the effect of the money supply (M<sub>2</sub>), foreign exchange reserves, SBI interest rates and world crude oil prices on the rupiah/dollar exchange rate in 2017-2020 both in the short run and in the long run. The data used is monthly time series data from 2017-2020. The analytical method used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results in this study indicate that in the short run and long run the money supply and foreign exchange reserves variables have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in 2017-2020.</p>

scholarly journals Penerapan Vector Error Correction Model pada Variabel Makro Ekonomi di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Moh. Faizin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

In this time, the countries can be said to be in a good condition of the national economy if there are some indicators in positive economic macro, it is including the decline of inflation, the amount of money circulating is also decline, and the exchange rate strengthening against foreign currencies and reduced interest rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality and cointegration relationships of economic macro variables, by using time series data for 2010-2019 and using the VECM model. The results of the study found that there is no causality relationship between inflation and the BI rate. Likewise, the variable money supply does not affect the BI rate. The exchange rate also does not affect each other on the BI rate variable. Causality test results also indicate that the money supply does not have a causality relationship to inflation, while the exchange rate variables influence each other on inflation. To exchange rates, it does not give affect in the variable amount of money in circulation each other. By explanation of the estimation results of the VECM model, it shows the long-term and short-term relationships of each variable generally.

scholarly journals Determinasi Tingkat Suku Bunga Perbankan di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Arief Hadi Putra ◽  
Siswoyo Hari Santosa ◽  
Regina Niken Wilantari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trigger Factor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The interest rate has an important role to regulate the exchange rate affecting an economy and banking transactions betweencountries.The interest rate as a trigger factor of development of a country has a very important role to cope with the level ofinflation and the exchange rate in the country. In this study, several factors are considered to influence the interest ratesinclude inflation, and exchange rates. The method used is multiple linear regression with time series data. The study wasconducted using monthly data from July 2005 until December 2012. The results of the regression carried out showed thatindlasi positive and significant impact on interest rates. While the exchange rate and no significant negative effect on interestrates.

scholarly journals The Asymmetric Impacts of Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, the Exchange Rate, Institutional Quality, and Trade Balance on Tourist Arrivals in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL Model Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 781-800
Author(s):  
Rehana Parvin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Bound Test

The nonlinear interaction of oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals in Bangladesh is scrutinized in this study. The technique utilized in this study, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), is a novel co-integrating strategy. The yearly time series data used in this study spanned 1995 to 2019. The NARDL bound test is performed to assess if variables like oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals are co-integrated. Oil prices and exchange rates, according to the findings, have a long-run negative and significant impact on tourism demand, whereas improvements in institutional quality are positively associated with tourist arrivals. Moreover, the study’s findings revealed a nonlinear kinship between the trade balance, inflation, and tourism demand across time. The asymmetric results obtained could enable Bangladeshi policymakers to make more precise decisions.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

Macroeconomic Variables and Sukuk Outstanding in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 561-570
Author(s):  
Nur Habibah Asri ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Descriptive Method

Sukuk or Sharia bonds are one of the investment instruments in Indonesia. Since the 19th century, Sukuk has become popular with investors. Several previous studies found contradictory results that macroeconomic variables have a relationship and influence on Sukuk by observing the year before the pandemic. This study uses a quantitative descriptive method with a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. Through the optimum lag value, namely, lag 3, statistically it was found that there was a significant relationship between the variables of GDP, interest rates, and the exchange rate on Sukuk. In addition, several analysis results found a causal relationship between these variables.

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