scholarly journals An analysis of the statistical relationship between precious metals prices and other monetary policy variables and inflation in South Africa

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-437
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Statistical Relationships

This study looked at the statistical relationship between precious metals prices, oil prices, money supply, interest rates and exchange ratesandinflation. It particularly looked at how inflation was influenced by these variables over time. The findings in this study were consistent with the hypothesis that the values of these variables influence inflation in the short-term and long-term. One of the findingsthat could be of interest especially for South Africa indicates that precious metalsprice changes, especially gold,could act as signals of pending changes to inflation and are also statistically related to interest rate movements. However, it was also found that the relationship between exchange rates movements during the financial crisis era between 2008 and 2010 did affect the other variables like prime, precious metals prices and oil prices which led to significant spikes in inflation. It should be emphasized that these finding of a statistical relationship is only consistent with observed data pertaining to South Africa and not proof of such behaviour prevailing in other markets. Even then, such a conclusion would require the isolation of a number of country specific behaviours and factors that may be correlated with precious metals prices, oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates and that may simultaneously affect inflation, which this study did not factor in. However, knowledge of statistical relationships can help in informing monetary policy responses and designing appropriate portfolio strategies although these findings do not provide unambiguous proof of any underlying behavioural hypothesis.

scholarly journals Impact of Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Against Indonesia's Economic Growth

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faridsky Faridsky ◽  
Syarwani Canon ◽  
Boby Rantow Payu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indicator Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of monetary policy and FDI on economic growth and discuss it. The monetary indicator variables used are inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. The data used in this study are secondary data in 1990-2019 sourced from data from the Central Bureau of National Statistics and the World Bank. The analysis model in this study uses Multiple Linear Regression with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis model. The results of the analysis show that in the long term monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) have a significant effect on economic growth. And in the short term FDI has a significant effect on economic growth. It is concluded that monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) are the main variables that affect economic growth in the long and short term.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy And Long-Term Interest Rates In South Africa

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregressive Model

This paper examines how short-term and long-term interest rates react to supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in South Africa. Use is made of the impulse response functions obtained from the structural vector autoregressive model with long-term restrictions. We find a positive correlation between the two interest rates after a monetary and demand shock and a negative correlation after a supply shock. The finding of this paper is that the operation of the monetary transmission mechanism should be effective in South Africa. Furthermore, this paper provides an approach to identify supply shocks in the South African business cycle.

scholarly journals Loose Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment of Manufacturing Firms in the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-385
Author(s):  
Veronika Kajurová ◽  
Dagmar Linnertová
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of loose monetary policy on corporate investment of manufacturing firms in the Czech Republic during the period between 2006 and 2015. The main focus of the paper is on the effect of low interest rates on investment activity of Czech firms; additionally, the effects of interactions between interest rate and other firm-specific variables are investigated. The results indicate that corporate investment is positively associated with firm size, investment opportunities, and long term debt. Also, a negative effect of the cash position is found. Further, the findings show that monetary policy is a significant determinant of firm investment activity: when the monetary policy is loose, investment is positively affected. Furthermore, differences in the determinants of investment between highly and low leveraged firms were revealed.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, US Dollar Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and World Oil Prices on Gold Price Fluctuations in Indonesia 2014 – 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-171
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Us Dollar

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, US dollar exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia in 2014 - 2019. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. The multiple linear regression model is used as an analysis technique in this study. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously (F test) inflation, USD exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices have a significant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Partially (t-test) shows that the USD exchange rate has a significant positive effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Inflation and interest rates have a negative and insignificant effect on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and insignificant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The Unpleasant Arithmetic of the Taylor Rule

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. p89
Author(s):  
Alejandro Rodriguez-Arana
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Independent Component ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

This paper analyzes the effect of a monetary policy that raises the reference interest rate in order to reduce inflation in a situation where the fiscal policy parameters remain constant. In an overlapping generation’s model and in the presence of an accelerationist Phillips curve and a Taylor rule of interest rates, it is observed that increasing the independent component of said rule leads to a solution that at least in a large number of cases is unstable. In the case where the elasticity of substitution is greater than one, inflation falls temporarily, but then it can increase in an unstable manner. One way to achieve stability is to establish an interest rate rule where Taylor’s principle is not met. However, in this case many times the increase in the independent component of this rule will generate greater long-term inflation.

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