scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, US Dollar Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and World Oil Prices on Gold Price Fluctuations in Indonesia 2014 – 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-171
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Us Dollar

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, US dollar exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia in 2014 - 2019. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. The multiple linear regression model is used as an analysis technique in this study. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously (F test) inflation, USD exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices have a significant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Partially (t-test) shows that the USD exchange rate has a significant positive effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Inflation and interest rates have a negative and insignificant effect on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and insignificant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and World Oil Prices on Gold Prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an Intermediary Variable

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Path Coefficient ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Demand for Real Money Balances in Africa: Panel Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-376
Author(s):  
Chigozie Nelson Nkalu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Preference Theory

Abstract This study investigates demand for real money balances in Africa using panel time-series data from Nigeria and Ghana between 1970 and 2014. The study employs Levin, Lin, Chu common unit root process and Pedroni Residual Cointegration Test which the results reveal that all the variables in the model are stationary and cointegrated respectively. Data sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) were analyzed using Panel Two-Stage Estimated Generalized Least Squares (cross-section Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SURE)) with Instrumental Variables (IV). The results conform to the liquidity preference theory, with all the variables – inflation, real interest rates, and official exchange rates are statistically significant except real income. It is recommended that the monetary authorities in Africa especially the economies of Nigeria and Ghana should adopt appropriate monetary policies by placing interest rates, inflation and official exchange rates at acceptable levels to boost income through private sector investments.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyad Mustaqim ◽  
Saparuddin Mukhtar ◽  
Tuty Sariwulan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

A Comparative Study on the Behavior of Islamic and Conventional Stocks in the Presence of Oil Price, Gold Price, and Financial Risk Factors: Evidence from Dow Jones Indices

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-128
Author(s):  
Danish Iqbal Godil ◽  
Salman Sarwat ◽  
Muhammad Umer Quddoos ◽  
Muhammad Hanif Akhtar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
West Texas

The research aims to analyze the influence of the gold price, oil price and financial risk on Islamic and conventional securities on comparative as well as on individual bases. Monthly prices of oil and gold are extracted from the websites of West Texas Intermediate and World Gold Council, whereas time series data for financial risk is derived from the Volatility Index of S&P 500.  All these variables are found to be cointegrated at the first difference with both the Dow Jones indices, which means that gold, oil and financial risk have long term association with Islamic and conventional stocks. In order to find the direction and magnitude, this study applied the Newey-West HAC test, which also handles autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity issues in the time series data. The findings of the study suggest that gold prices are positively associated whereas oil prices and financial risk are negatively associated with both types of securities. Though the direction of the nexus is similar for Islamic and conventional stocks, but the magnitude differs especially in case of oil and financial risk. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that there is no diversification prospect between conventional and Islamic stocks under the influence of oil prices, financial risk, and gold prices.

scholarly journals Analisis Tingkat Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Nur Lailatul Fatmawati ◽  
Abdul Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking

The ability of banks to generate profitability greatly impacts the growth and development of sharia banking. In maintaining and enhancing the growth of sharia banking, several components, both internal and external, are needed. The low profitability of banks indicates that banks are not good in their performance. Profitability is still something that is always wanted to be improved by Islamic banking because it sees the movement of Islamic banking growth that is still lagging far behind that of conventional banking. will be able to increase profitability. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of FDR, BOPO, and exchange rates on the level of profitability (ROA). To determine the effect of NPF and interest rates on the level of profitability (ROA). To find out the influence of Mudharabah Financing, musyarakah financing and murabahah financing on profitability (ROA). This research uses a quantitative approach. The type of data used in this study is secondary data in the form of time series data. This study shows that FDR, BOPO, and exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on the level of profitability (ROA). NPF and interest rates have a negative and not significant effect on the level of profitability (ROA). Mudharabah financing, musyarakah financing and murabahah financing have a positive and not significant effect on profitability (ROA).

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Chairannisa Arjunita
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Series Data

This study aims to  analyze the effect of interest rate, money supply,exchange rate and inflation targeting framework policy on inflation in Indonesia.The type of this research are descriptive and associative using time series data fromthe first quarter of 1997 until the fourth quarter of 2015 with documentation datacollected technique. Data were analyzed with multiple linear regression model, theprerequisite test (multicolinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity), t test, andF test. The result shows that (1) Interest Rates has positive and significant effect oninflation in Indonesia. (2) Money Supply has positive and not significant effect oninflation in Indonesia. (3) Exchange rate has negative and not significant effect oninflation in Indonesia.  (4) Inflation Targeting Framewrok Policy has positive andsignificant effect on inflation in Indonesia.

scholarly journals PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 1987-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ina Yanti ◽  
Ratna Ratna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the effect of world oil prices and interest rates on the economic growth of Indonesia. The data used in this study is time-series data during1987-2017 obtained from Indonesia. (Energy Information Administration), Bank Indonesia, and the Central Bureau of Statistics. Data analysis methods use multiple linear regression and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. The results of the study show that partially the world oil prices and interest rates have a significant and negative effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. Simultaneously, world oil prices and interest rates have a significant and positive effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. Furthermore, the results of testing the VAR analysis model indicate that world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia, and interest rates have a positive and insignificant effect on the economic growth of Indonesia. It recommends that the government and all stakeholders must collaborate to reduce or eliminate the influence of shocks to global oil prices domestically and a concrete step that needs to be sought is to normalize the habits that used to be wasteful of fuel to save fuel.

ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA HARGA MINYAK, PASAR SAHAM, DAN NILAI TUKAR DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Kurnianti ◽  
Idris Idris
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship of causality between oil prices, stocks market, and exchange rates in Indonesia using VAR model. The data used in this study is time series data from January 2014 until December 2018 that was obtained from the relevant institutions. The variables use are oil prices (X1), stocks market (X2), and exchange rates (X3). The method used in this study is Vector Auto Reggression (VAR). The finding has shown that there are no causality relationship between the oil prices, stock markets, and exchanger rates. The finding also shown that there is only directional relationship between exchange rates with stocks market.

scholarly journals Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor CPO provinsi Jambi ke Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-154
Author(s):  
Usman Hardianto ◽  
Siti Hodijah ◽  
Rahma Nurjanah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Average Development

The purpose of the study was to determine and analyze the development of production, exchange rates, CPO prices, Malaysian GDP, and Jambi Province CPO exports to Malaysia and the effect of production, exchange rates, CPO prices, Malaysian GDP on Jambi Province CPO exports to Malaysia. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of time series data for 2000-2017. The results show that the average development of Jambi Province CPO exports to Malaysia is 4.10% per year, Jambi Province CPO production is on average 4, 10% per year, the average exchange rate is 2.64% per year, the average CPO price is 8.63% per year, and Malaysia's GDP is 4.89% per year on average. Based on the results of multiple linear analyses, it can be concluded that CPO production, CPO prices, exchange rates, and Malaysian GDP together affect the volume of Jambi Province's CPO exports to Malaysia. While partially production and GDP have a negative and insignificant effect on Jambi Province's CPO exports to Malaysia, the exchange rate and CPO prices positively and significantly impact Jambi Province's CPO exports to Malaysia. Keywords: Production, Price, Exchange rates, Gross Domestic Product

scholarly journals REAKSI HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN AGRIBISNIS INDEKS LQ-45 TERHADAP PERUBAHAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-140
Author(s):  
Alghif Aruni Nur Rukman ◽  
Harianto Harianto ◽  
Suprehatin Suprehatin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Stock Price Reaction

This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation on stock prices of agribusiness companies on the LQ-45 index. This study used monthly time series data from 2008-2018 and analyzed by the VECM method. The results showed that the stock price reaction of eight agribusiness companies in the LQ-45 index varies with changes in macroeconomic variables both in the short and long term. In the short term, changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on one company stock prices, while changes in inflation and interest rates had a negative and significant effect on four companies and one company respectively. In the long term, the results showed that changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on two companies’ stock prices, while it had a negative and significant effect on five companies. The result also showed that changes in inflation had a positive and negative effect on one company and six companies respectively in the long term. Also besides changes in interest rates had a positive and negative effect on two companies’ stock prices respectively.

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