scholarly journals Wagner’s law versus Keynesian hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoniou Antonis ◽  
Katrakilidis Constantinos ◽  
Tsaliki Persefoni
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

With data of over a century, 1833-1938, this paper attempts, for the first time, to analyze the causal relationship between income and government spending in the Greek economy for such a long period; that is, to gain some insight into Wagner and Keynesian Hypotheses. The time period of the analysis represents a period of growth, industrialization and modernization of the economy, conditions which are conducive to Wagner?s Law but also to the Keynesian Hypothesis. The empirical analysis resorts to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration method and tests for the presence of possible structural breaks. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant long run causal effect running from economic performance towards the public size giving support to Wagner?s Law in Greece, whereas for the Keynesian hypothesis some doubts arise for specific time sub-periods.

scholarly journals DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REMITTANCES ON EXTERNAL RESERVES IN NIGERIA: THE ROLE OF INFLATION AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-141
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
A. RAHEEM ◽  
A. A. ADEMOKOYA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run

This study provides additional information about the drivers of external reserves in Nigeria.  The result using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation approach for the period 1980-2015 shows that remittances, among other macroeconomic variables, increased external reserves in the short run but weakens it in the long run. Remittances depletes external reserves through its effect on inflation rate and the nonsterilized intervention of the Central Bank.  Furthermore, regime shift to relatively floating exchange rate causes remittances to increase reserves.  From the foregoing, it is important for the authorities to continue operating relatively flexible exchange rate, and curtail excessive spending of remittances.   Keywords: , , , , . JEL Classification: F31, F24, C22, F31  

scholarly journals Determinants of Export Performance in ASEAN Region: Panel Data Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Thida Oo ◽  
Jerome Kueh ◽  
Daw Tin Hla
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Study Panel

International trade is one of the major aspects that grow tremendously in Southeast Asia and export is regarded as main accelerators of growth in either developed or developing countries. The objective of this study is to determine the determinants of export performance for ASEAN countries. In this study, panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is adopted for time period between 2000 to 2015. Empirical findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between determinants of export such as interest rate, economic growth and foreign direct investment with export performance of ASEAN countries. Therefore, policy makers need to strategize their policies to move towards closer cooperation among the ASEAN countries, especially promoting sustainable exportation in the region.

scholarly journals Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Isaiah O. Ajibola ◽  
Sylvanus U. Udoette ◽  
Rabia A. Muhammad ◽  
John O. Anigwe
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Currency Substitution ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This study investigates the relationship between exchange rate volatility and currency substitution in Nigeria, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. After accounting for the presence of structural breaks, evidence from the findings shows that domestic interest rate and expected changes in exchange rate are important determinants of currency substitution. In addition, there is empirical support for a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and currency substitution both in the short- and long-run. This implies that higher real exchange rate volatility is associated with an increased level of currency substitution. In view of these findings, the paper calls for sustained efforts by the monetary authority in containing exchange rate volatility and inflation as a way of curbing the spate of currency substitution in the country.

scholarly journals Event Tourism Demand and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: An Econometrics View of the Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Sally Ann Yu-Ing Yap ◽  
Norazirah Ayob ◽  
Chin-Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Increase ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Event Tourism ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Assessing the substantial economic benefits of event tourism will provide insight into the effectiveness of tourism event in Malaysia.The significance of the tourism event sector has the potential to boost Malaysia’s economic growth, increase the arrivalof international tourists, increase tourist expenditure and further job creations.This study empirically investigates determinantsof event tourism demand in Malaysia during the period of 1991Q1to 2016Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniqueis used to find the long-run cointegration relationshipsof the model. The model is further tested by employing diagnostic tests(Normality test, Serial Autocorrelation, Heteroscedasticity and Ramsey’s RESET test) and stability tests(CUSUM and CUSUMSQ). The empirical analysis of the boundstest indicatesthat there is a long-run cointegration among the variables under study. Besides that, the ARDL model produces reliable results,as all of the computed coefficientsof the independent variables are statistically significant with the expected signs. The findings are consistent witheconomic theory and the model passed all of the diagnostic tests.The findings of this study imply that event demand can be improved significantly when government spending,theexchange rate and tourist receipts increaseand the crude oil price decreases. Hence, government authorities and the private sector should createan integrated plan to enhancethe profit gained through the Malaysian economyfrom event tourism.

scholarly journals The Effect of Renewable Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-126
Author(s):  
Sonia Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Renewable Energy Investment ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Abstract This paper investigates the effect of renewable energy on economic growth in Croatia for the period 1996-2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique is used to find the long run relationships between renewable energy, energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical analysis indicates that renewable energy has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the short and long run. These findings indicate that the Croatian government can continue to boost renewable energy investment without impeding economic growth.

scholarly journals Macro-Financial Parameters Influencing Bitcoin Prices: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric ARDL Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Srinivasan Palamalai ◽  
Bipasha Maity ◽  
Krishna Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Bitcoins are evolving as a modern class of investment assets and it is crucial for investors to manage their investment risk. This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic-financial indicators on Bitcoin price using symmetric and asymmetric version of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models with structural breaks. The asymmetric long-run association ascertained between Bitcoin prices and the macroeconomic-financial indicators is evident. Our empirical results indicate that the Bitcoin cannot be used to hedge against the inflation, Federal funds rate, stock markets and commodity markets. We further find that Bitcoin can be regarded as a hedging device for the oil prices. Our findings have significant implications for market participants who consider including alternate investment assets in their portfolios.

The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Tourism Receipts for Selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Countries: Do Structural Breaks Matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Khalid M. Kisswani ◽  
Amjad M. Kisswani ◽  
Arezou Harraf
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bounds Test

One of the short comings in the tourism literature is that research on the oil price–tourism receipts nexus is limited. However, the available studies, to the best of our knowledge, provide limited evidence on the negative effect of oil prices on tourism receipts. Nevertheless, the related literature did not consider the structural breaks in the analysis, which has proven to be important in the empirical work. As such, in this article we study the oil price–tourism receipts nexus for selected MENA countries in the presence of structural breaks. This is done by adopting the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and incorporating the structural breaks. The findings show that the bounds test provides evidence of a long-run relationship between tourism receipts and oil prices after integrating structural breaks into the ARDL model for most countries.

scholarly journals Income Inequality and Public Debt: What Can Be Learned from the Lebanese Indebtedness?

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Adham Sayed
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of domestic public debt on income inequality in Lebanon. The analysis is carried out using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model (ECM). The data used covers the period between 1990 and 2015. By applying the bounds test, we indicate that there is the existence of a long-run relationship between our variables. Therefore, in both the short and long run, our results show that the domestic share of public debt has a positive and significant effect on income inequality. Hence, a bigger share of domestic public debt leads to wider income inequality. We also suggest steps that may halt the negative impact of public debt on equality in Lebanon, such as reforming the tax system, restructuring the public debt, and searching for sources other than borrowing to cover the budget deficit.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

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