Do Trade and Poverty Cause Each Other? Evidence from BRICS

Any two variables that are observable have one or the other form of relationship. This is particularly a statistical relationship. But for a statistical relationship to be cause and effect, a theoretical relationship is important. The theoretical relationship can be quantified to search for the evidence of causality. The possible outcomes can be no causality, unidirectional causality, or bidirectional causality. The present study aims at searching for evidence from BRICS countries regarding trade causing poverty or vice versa. Applied econometrics approach is used in the study. Panel econometric techniques have been employed to identify presence/absence of causality between the variables. Apart from this, the study also uses equality of means to identify whether trade and poverty proxies are symmetrical or asymmetrical. The study finds no causal relationship between trade and poverty for BRICS countries except that poverty headcount at $3.2 per day causes trade balance. With respect to the impact on the GINI index, lowest 10 percent income share and poverty headcount ratios are integral to reduce the inequality in the BRICS countries.

Global growth trend in fisheries and current situation in Turkey

In recent years the most salient change in the global food sector has been witnessed in the range of fisheries. Due to the gravity of fishery, particularly in meeting the needs of an adequate and balanced diet, its total share in production, consumption and trading has been on the rise on a global scale. The aim of this study is to detect the factors impinging upon growth trend and foreign trade of global fishery sector. To that end, data from 1990-2017 period of 10 countries meeting 72% of global fisheries and data from Turkey have been employed. In this study panel data analysis method has been applied by using 11 cross-section data and 28-time series. Importation and exportation models have thus been set. An increase by 100% in production of fisheries climbs exportation share by 15% and degrades importation share by 1%. 1-unit increase in income heightens importation by 8 units. Slowness in the growth rate of production of fisheries can be associated with supplying the vast majority of total production by only a few select countries thus threatening global exportation of fisheries. Turkey and relevant countries could gain exportation advantage by conducting a better analysis of their existing potential.

Testing Negative: The Non-Consequences of COVID-19 on Mass Ideology

Responding to COVID-19, governments implemented large-scale economic and social policies of unprecedented scale. This highlighted the state's capacity to guarantee economic and health security, and affected demographic groups that are less commonly beneficiaries of state support. We hypothesise that exposure to the pandemic and these policy responses caused change in attitudes to the role of government in the economy and redistribution. We test this expectation using data from the (2014–present) British Election Study panel, together with a unique panel survey fielded to existing BES respondents in April and September, 2020. We find virtually no evidence of any effect on ideological beliefs. Moreover, using a survey experiment, we find exposure to cues linking the pandemic to greater roles for government has no impact on ideological beliefs. We conclude that such elite rhetoric, even if it had been present in the field, would not have yielded ideological change.

The Use of Panel Theatre in Developing Communication Skills for Children with Special Needs: A Case Study of a Child with Developmental Disorders

Panel Theatre created from Japan is a method of expression in which pictures or letters made by paper attached or detached on a cloth board to develop drama, stories combined with games, singing and movement. Panel theatre has many advantages to develop communication for children with disabilities. In this study, panel theatre was used in intervention to develop communication skills for 1 child with developmental disorders through exposing him to materials, performing motor activities in combination with listening to stories and letting him participate in the drama activities which were adapted to his communication abilities. The results show that the child has improved attention, imitation, alternation, language understanding and using skills. These results show that it is possible to use panel theatre in intervention for children with developmental disorders and further studies should be considered in the future.

Past and Present Subjective Wellbeing: The Role of Contrast and Memory

This study is an attempt to analyse the interrelationships between current, past and expected future subjective wellbeing (SWB) through the intermediating role of memory using the National Income Dynamics Study panel dataset for South Africa. The contribution of this study is in exploring the role of contrast (inter-temporal and social) in determining; a) the current levels of SWB and, b) the drivers of recall bias; within a causal framework in the context of a country with low average SWB and high SWB inequality. The results indicate significant presence of hedonic adaptation and reveals past and future contrast as important correlates of current subjective wellbeing. In addition, a perceived improvement in current happiness from the past, is associated with higher levels of current SWB, highlighting the intermediating role of memory. Memory, however, is observed to be biased with only 42% accuracy. Higher levels of current subjective wellbeing are found to enhance the probability of correct recall of past. An overall improvement bias is evident among those in the lower segment of the SWB distribution. The results reinforce the hypothesized simultaneous relationships between current SWB, inter-temporal contrast, and recall behaviour. Further the differences in our findings from European studies emphasise the relevance of context in driving these relationships.

Effect of Tax Avoidance and Company Complexity on Firm Value: The Role of Transparency as a Moderating Variable

This study aims to analyze the effect of tax avoidance and company complexity on firm value with information transparency as a moderating variable so that internal and external parties can evaluate management performance to increase firm value positively. In this study, panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analyst (MRA) were carried out on 78 public manufacturing companies on the IDX during the 2017-2019 period. Tax avoidance is measured by the BTD proxy, the level of complexity is measured by the number of business segments, firm value is measured by Tobin's q proxy, and information transparency is measured by the transparency index released by BAPEPAM. The results show that tax avoidance has a significant negative effect on firm value and firm complexity does not have a significant effect on firm value, while information transparency moderates the relationship between tax avoidance and firm value but is unable to moderate the effect of firm complexity on firm value.

Bank Distress Prediction Model for Botswana

"Financial distress" has many dierent meanings but generally it is said to be a state of unhealthy condition. Botswana's banking system comprises of commercial, development and savings banks. None of these types of banks has actually failed but rather some of them have experienced some form of distress. The Bank of Botswana uses the CAMELS ratings to measure distress. The CAMELS ratings is based on a score between 1 and 5, with 1 being the best score and indicates strong performance, while 5 is the poorest rating and it indicates a high probability of bank failure and the need for immediate action to rectify the situation. For this study, we consider 1-3 to be good scores (non-distressed) and a bank to be distressed if it has a score of 4-5. Utilising secondary data sources for the period 2015 to 2019, inclusive, the study evaluated the drivers of bank distress in Botswana. The data was sourced from the audited nancial statements and annual reports of the 11 banks involved in the study. Panel data logistic regression was used for analysis. The results of the study showed that Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE) were the best predictors of bank distress.

Insight into population structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in the multiethnic province of Alborz, Iran

Background and Objectives: Genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from tuberculosis patients in the multiethnic province of Alborz, Iran was assessed. Materials and Methods: A total of 17 isolates in the period of 2012-2013 were collected and subjected to a Multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis (MLVA) consisted of 6 variable numbers of tandem repeats (VNTRs) including ETR-A, ETR-B, ETR-C, ElTR-D, ETR-E, ETR-F, 5 Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units including MIRU10, MIRU16, MIRU26, MIRU39, MIRU40, and 1 Queen University of Belfast locus, QUB11. Results: This classified all isolates into 17 distinct MIRU-VNTR types, a reflection of a highly heterogenic population. Within the 12 used VNTR loci, ten proved highly or moderately discriminant according to the calculated HGDI scores. No cluster of isolates was identified in the study panel, giving a clustering rate of 0%, several events of SVL (N=5) and DVL (N=4) and TVL (N=3) were detected. Conclusion: The greater heterogeneity observed here by MLVA-VNTR analysis is most likely due to limited background data in the study region rather than a genuine more heterogeneous population compared to other provinces of the country.

Involving research participants in a pan-European research initiative: the EPAD participant panel experience

Background Including participants in patient and public involvement activities is increasingly acknowledged as a key pillar of successful research activity. Such activities can influence recruitment and retention, as well as researcher experience and contribute to decision making in research studies. However, there are few established methodologies of how to set up and manage participant involvement activities. Further, there is little discussion of how to do so when dealing with collaborative projects that run across countries and operate in multiple linguistic and regulatory contexts. Methods In this paper we describe the set-up, running and experiences of the EPAD participant panel. The EPAD study was a pan-European cohort study with the aim to understand risks for developing Alzheimer’s disease and build a readiness cohort for Phase 2 clinical trials. Due to the longitudinal nature of this study, combined with the enrolment of healthy volunteers and those with mild cognitive impairments, the EPAD team highlighted participant involvement as crucial to the success of this project. The EPAD project employed a nested model, with local panels meeting in England, France, Scotland, Spain and The Netherlands, and feeding into a central study panel. The local panels were governed by terms of reference which were adaptable to local needs. Results The impact of the panels has been widespread, and varies from feedback on documentation, to supporting with design of media materials and representation of the project at national and international meetings. Conclusions The EPAD panels have contributed to the success of the project and the model established is easily transferable to other disease areas investigating healthy or at-risk populations.