scholarly journals Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng-Jenq Lin
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Telecommunication Industry ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Analogy Method ◽  
Service Demand ◽  
Forecast Field

In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

scholarly journals Optimal Pricing in Recycling and Remanufacturing in Uncertain Environments

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3199
Author(s):  
Guangzhou Yan ◽  
Yaodong Ni ◽  
Xiangfeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Optimal Pricing ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Uncertain Environments ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Equivalent Models ◽  
Fashion Products ◽  
Proposed Model

With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, firms pay much more attention to the recycling and remanufacturing of used products. This paper addresses the problem of the optimal pricing in recycling and remanufacturing in uncertain environments. We consider two strategies of remanufacturing products, by which a recycled product can be repaired and sold as a second-hand product or dissembled into materials for production of new products according to its quality. As the market demand for products and the quantities of recycled products, such as fashion products and mobile phones, usually lack historical data, this paper adopts uncertainty theory to depict uncertainty in establishing the pricing model. An uncertain programming model and a series of crisp equivalent models are proposed under the assumptions of particular uncertainty distribution. Finally, numerical experiments are performed to show how various parameters influence the results of the proposed model.

New tourism experiences and mature destinations: the role of participatory planning in repositioning a southern Italy destination.

2021 ◽  
pp. 62-81
Author(s):  
Francesco Calza ◽  
Michele Simoni ◽  
Annarita Sorrentino ◽  
Mariapina Trunfio
Keyword(s):  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Participatory Planning ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Mass Market ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Local Stakeholders

Abstract This chapter is the work of Francesco Calza, Michele Simoni, Annarita Sorrentino and Mariapina Trunfio, who study the role of participatory planning in repositioning a southern Italy destination, Centola-Palinuro in the Campania region. This contribution deals with a demand-driven destination that suffers from several challenges such as seaside seasonality, mass-market demand and low spending. The case argues that a participatory planning process that involves local stakeholders can have a significant impact in the repositioning of the destination by reshaping the tourism offering in the area through stakeholder engagement.

scholarly journals Statistical improvements to the Advanced Planner & Optimizer Module of a Food Production Company

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
daniel sarcos
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Demand Planning ◽  
Historical Data Analysis ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Production Company

Objectives: An analysis of the SAP-APO demand forecasting system of a food company is carried out, describing how the demand-planning process is carried out from start to finish, with emphasis on the Demand Planning (DP) tool, Found in the system, which is responsible for generating demand proposals for future months.Methods/Statistical analysis: It was divided into definition of the information system, collection of historical data, analysis of demand forecasting, adjustment of model parameters and implementation of improvements.Findings: Redefining the parameters of the statistical models of the SAP-APO demand moduleApplication/Improvements: The percentage of products to be manually adjusted decreased.

scholarly journals Regulations In Planning Understanding The Relationship Of The Growth Plan For The Greater Golden Horseshoe And Housing Affordability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Pister
Keyword(s):  
Planning Process ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Housing Type ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Relationship Of

This research paper explores what impacts regional regulation, and the resulting planning process, has on ground-related housing. The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) is a significant regulation requiring evaluation. It has been suggested that density targets mandated by the Growth Plan have continuously decreased the supply of ground-related housing in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). The combination of regional regulations and the time of processing development applications play an important role in understanding changes in housing supply. A case study of York Region displayed this concept, such that the requirements of the Province, and the resulting changes to the planning system for the Region, has contributed to decreases in supply of ground-related housing. Prices continue to rise due to increasing demand for the housing type. This research suggests four recommendations for the Proposed Growth Plan to increase the inventory of ground-related housing: 1) reducing density targets, 2) realigning the planning process to reduce time lag, 3) observing market demand, and 4) removing a one-size-fits-all policy which currently exists within the Growth Plan.

scholarly journals Management of investment activities and the growth of shipbuilding companies in the field of small shipbuilding

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Т.Г. Айгумов ◽  
В.Б. Мелехин
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effective ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Efficient Production ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Investment Funds ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Small Vessels ◽  
Economic Production ◽  
To Receive

Решаются проблемы связанные с организацией оптимальной инвестиционной деятельности и развитием кораблестроительных компаний за счет производства хозяйственным способом маломерной кораблестроительной продукции. Рассмотрена методика расчета необходимых инвестиционных средств для экстенсивного развития потенциальных возможностей компании, позволяющих обеспечить рост объемов производства различного вида маломерных судов с учетом неудовлетворенного на них рыночного спроса. Предложена методика оценки объемов производства различного вида маломерных судов, позволяющих кораблестроительной компании получать максимально возможную прибыль. Определено условие, выполнение которого позволяет кораблестроительной компании установить такие объемы производства различных видов маломерной кораблестроительной продукции, которые обеспечивают ей рентабельную производственную деятельность. Разработаны инструментальные средства, открывающие перед кораблестроительной компанией возможности определять оптимальные объемы производства различных видов продукции и проводить гибкую ценовую политику в условиях дефицита инвестиционных средств и на этой основе обеспечить эффективную производственную деятельность. The problems associated with the organization of optimal investment activity and the development of shipbuilding companies through the economic production of small shipbuilding products are being resolved. The paper discusses the methodology for calculating the necessary investment funds for the extensive development of the companys potential capabilities, allowing to ensure the growth of production volumes of various types of small vessels taking into account unsatisfied market demand for them. A technique is proposed for estimating the production volumes of various types of small vessels, allowing the shipbuilding company to receive the maximum possible profit. A condition has been determined whose fulfillment allows the shipbuilding company to establish such volumes of production of various types of small-sized shipbuilding products that provide it with cost-effective production activities. Tools have been developed that open up opportunities for the shipbuilding company to determine the optimal production volumes of various types of products and pursue a flexible pricing policy in the conditions of a shortage of investment funds and, on this basis, ensure efficient production activities.

scholarly journals Perencanaan Produksi dan Pengendalian Persediaan pada Perusahaan Manufaktur

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (01) ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Myra Beatrice Soeltanong ◽  
Catur Sasongko
Keyword(s):  
Inventory Control ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Production Schedule ◽  
Safety Stock ◽  
Resource Requirements ◽  
Demand Patterns

ABSTRACT This research was conducted with the aim of observing the production planning process applied by PT X then designing a comprehensive production planning and inventory control so that it can overcome the occurrence of shortages and excess of inventory in the company. The research was conducted by observing a springbed manufacturing company PT X in Makassar. The data used are primary and secondary data, using instruments such as interviews, conducted on staffs and management of PT X, site visits, as well as company historical data. The results of the research were in the form of production planning, through demand forecasting, master production schedule, and planning for resource requirements. In addition, the researcher also established an inventory control system that could support the company's production process using the EOQ method, safety stock, and reorder points.  The results of the research are not necessarily applicable to other companies with different demand patterns or to companies with different industries. In addition, the methods used in production planning and inventory control are limited in this study. ABSTRAK Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk mengamati proses perencanaan produksi yang diterapkan perusahaan manufaktur PT X, merancang perencanaan produksi dan pengendalian persediaan yang komprehensif sehingga dapat mengatasi terjadinya kekurangan maupun kelebihan persediaan pada perusahaan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan melakukan observasi pada perusahaan manufaktur PT X, perusahaan manufaktur yang memproduksi kasur per di kota Makassar. Data yang digunakan merupakan data primer dan sekunder, berupa wawancara yang dilakukan pada jajaran staf dan manajemen PT X, serta data historis perusahaan. Hasil penelitian berupa perencanaan produksi yang melewati tahap peramalan permintaan, pembentukan jadwal induk produksi, serta perencanaan kebutuhan sumber daya. Selain itu, peneliti juga membentuk sistem pengendalian persediaan yang dapat mendukung kelancaran proses produksi perusahaan dengan metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ), persediaan pengaman, dan titik pemesanan kembali. Hasil penelitian belum tentu dapat diterapkan pada perusahaan lain dengan pola permintaan maupun pada perusahaan dengan industri yang berbeda. Selain itu, metode yang digunakan dalam pembentukan perencanaan produksi dan pengendalian persediaan pun menjadi keterbatasan dalam penelitian ini.

Cybersecurity economics – balancing operational security spending

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1318-1342
Author(s):  
Stale Ekelund ◽  
Zilia Iskoujina
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Security Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Normal Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Cost

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to find the optimal investment level in protecting an organisation’s assets. Design/methodology/approach This study integrates a case study of an international financial organisation with various methods and theories in security economics and mathematics, such as value-at-risk (VaR), Monte Carlo simulation, exponential and Poisson probability distributions. Thereby it combines theory and empirical findings to establish a new approach to determining optimal security investment levels. Findings The results indicate that optimal security investment levels can be found through computer simulation with historical incident data to find VaR. By combining various scenarios, the convex graph of the risk cost function has been plotted, where the minimum of the graph represents the optimal invest level for an asset. Research limitations/implications The limitations of the research include a modest number of loss observations from one case study, and the use of normal probability distribution. The approach has limitations where there are no historical data available or the data has zero losses. These areas should undergo further research including larger data set of losses and exploring other probability distributions. Practical implications The results can be used by leading business practitioners to assist them with decision making on investment to the increased protection of an asset. Originality/value The originality of this research is in its new way of combining theories with historical data to create methods to measure theoretical and empirical strength of a control (or set of controls) and translating it to loss probabilities and loss sizes.

Mathematical Models for Manufacturing Systems Capacity Planning and Expansion – An Overview

2015 ◽  
Vol 791 ◽  
pp. 125-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arkadiusz Gola ◽  
Marcin Relich ◽  
Grzegorz Kłosowski ◽  
Antoni Świć
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
System Design ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Manufacturing Systems ◽  
Manufacturing System ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Manufacturing System Design ◽  
Major Decision

When planning a new manufacturing system, the optimal investment in the system capacity is a major decision to make. The problem of capacity planning is not an easy because of the unpredictable character of the market demand and multi-criteria optimization character of the task. Therefore there is still no one complex methodology of the capacity planning and management. In this paper some mathematical models for capacity planning which can be used at the stage of manufacturing system design or expansion are presented.

Hierarchical forest management with anticipation: an application to tactical–operational planning integration

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 2198-2211 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Beaudoin ◽  
J.-M. Frayret ◽  
L. LeBel
Keyword(s):  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Specific Problem ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Tactical Planning ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Operational Level ◽  
Annual Capacity ◽  
Operational Impact

This paper examines the problem of harvest capacity planning at a tactical level. Annual capacity planning allows planners to determine the number of contractors to hire per period throughout the year and to define the duration of their contracts. In practice, this process usually involves the analysis of historical data regarding the operational use of capacity and aggregated demand forecast, the output of which then serves to plan harvest operations. Although this form of hierarchical planning reduces the complexity of the task, the decomposition into subproblems that must be successively resolved can lead to infeasibility or poor use of harvesting capacity. The specific problem addressed here resides in how one can consider the operational impact of harvesting decisions taken at the tactical level to ensure a plan’s feasibility at the operational level. We present a tactical planning process based on Schneeweiss’ generic hierarchical modeling approach. A computational experiment demonstrates how a tactical planning process is influenced by the input of the operational level anticipation model. The anticipation approach we propose appears to be a valid method to better integrate key operational-level decisions into tactical plans.

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