Developing a Hazard Profile of The Kashmir Valley Through Historical Data Analysis For The Period 1900-2020

Disasters not only cause high mortality and suffering, but thwart developmental activities and damage local economies in process of formation. A part of the NW Himalayas, the Kashmir Valley is very distinct with respect to its location, topography, climate, socioeconomic structure, and strategic geopolitical nature owing to which it has witnessed a multitude of disasters ranging from local incidents of rockfalls to catastrophic earthquakes, and has often paid heavily in terms of loss of life and property. However, the information on most of the events is either partially reported or exaggerated or sometimes not recorded at all and largely scattered. Availability of organized and reliable record of past hazards and disasters is essential for tackling the risks and mitigating the future disasters. In this context, the present study attempts to address the lack of data availability by focusing on developing a dependable hazard and disaster catalogue of the Kashmir Valley by investigating into the existing literature and the available secondary data sources. A record of natural hazards and disasters most prevalent in the valley viz., earthquakes, floods, landslides and snow avalanches, has been compiled for the time period 1900 to 2020 by making use of various secondary sources, comprising of 1854 events with a range of triggers and impacts reported in the valley, which provide an insight into the spatial and temporal (frequency and distribution) trends of different hazard types for the selected time-period. Developing a catalogue of events reported in the Kashmir Valley can help in building a hazard and disaster scenario which serves as a reliable information source and is of great value from the perspective of regional design, planning and policy responses to promote disaster risk reduction.

Peta Perkembangan Wacana Intelektual Islam Nusantara Abad VII-XXI: Sebuah Analisis Historis

Basically, the development of Islamic intellectual discourse in the archipelago is can’t be separated from the gradual wave of Islamization by preachers from the outside, either from their status as traders, immigrants, or others. At the beginning of the arrival of Islam in the 7th century, intellectual traditions still seemed to be blurred and reaped the point of progress from around the 13th to the 21st. This article uses the historical method of thought Kuntowijoyo in an effort to explore in-depth studies regarding the dynamics of the flow of Islamic intellectual discourse in the archipelago. From the historical data analysis process, the result shows that the map of the development of the Islamic intellectual discourse in the archipelago can be classified typologically based on the period and the background of the area covering it, including: 1) early Islamic intellectual discourse in the archipelago (Mystic Islam 7th – 17th century ), 2) Islamic intellectual discourse during colonialism (traditional Islam versus modern Islam in the 16th - 19th century), 3) Islamic intellectual discourse in the period of independence (political Islam to cultural Islam in the 19th - 20th century), and 4) discourse Islamic intellectuals in the reform era (Right Islam and Left Islam 20th – 21st centuries).

IMPLEMENTASI METODE BAYES PADA PENGHITUNGAN PREMI ASURANSI KENDARAAN BERMOTOR

One type of general insurance is motor vehicle insurance. Premium pricing of general insurance can be calculated by some methods. In this study, Bayes method will be used. The distribution of claim frequency is Poisson distribution and the distribution of claim severity is Exponential distribution. The premium is calculated by multiplying the expectation of claim frequency and the expectation of claim severity. Based on the historical data analysis using the Bayes method, the highest pure premium of motor vehicle insurance in Indonesia is Hino brand and the lowest pure premium is Honda brand. The result of this premium pricing can be used as a reference for the insurance companies to manage their motor vehicle insurance reserves.

Machine learning applied in the stock market through the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator

The implementation of tools such as Genetic Algorithms has not been exploited for asset price prediction despite their power, robustness, and potential application in the stock market. This paper aims to fill the gap existing in the literature on the use of Genetic Algorithms for predicting asset pricing of investment strategies into stock markets and investigate its advantages over its peers Buy & Hold and traditional technical analysis. The Genetic Algorithms strategy applied to the MACD was carried out in two different validation periods and sought to optimize the parameters that generate the buy-sell signals. The performance between the machine learning-based approach, technical analysis with the MACD and B&H was compared. The results suggest that it is possible to find optimal values of the technical indicator parameters that result in a higher return on investment through Genetic Algorithms, beating the traditional technical analysis and B&H by around 4%. This study offers a new insight for practitioners, traders, and finance researchers to take advantage of Genetic Algorithms for trading rules application in forecasting financial asset returns under a more efficient and robust methodology based on historical data analysis.

Foraging in Boreal Forest: Wild Food Plants of the Republic of Karelia, NW Russia

While the current consumption of wild food plants in the taiga of the American continent is a relatively well-researched phenomenon, the European taiga area is heavily underrepresented in the scientific literature. The region is important due to its distinctive ecological conditions with restricted seasonal availability of wild plants. During an ethnobotanical field study conducted in 2018–2019, 73 people from ten settlements in the Republic of Karelia were interviewed. In addition, we conducted historical data analysis and ethnographical source analysis. The most widely consumed wild food plants are forest berries (three Vaccinium species, and Rubus chamaemorus), sap-yielding Betula and acidic Rumex. While throughout the lifetime of the interviewees the list of used plants did not change considerably, the ways in which they are processed and stored underwent several stages in function of centrally available goods, people’s welfare, technical progress, and ideas about the harm and benefit of various products and technological processes. Differences in the food use of wild plants among different ethnic groups living in the region were on the individual level, while all groups exhibited high variability in the methods of preparation of most used berries. The sustainability of berry use over time has both ecological and economical factors.