Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Moriarty ◽  
Arthur J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Efficiency ◽  
Forecasting Models

Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency

1984 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Moriarty ◽  
Arthur J. Adams
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Composite Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Conditional Efficiency ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Sales Forecasts ◽  
Different Sources

In an empirical study of sales forecasts, management judgment forecasts are compared with systematic forecasts (based on the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method). A composite sales forecasting model is developed which incorporates information from these different sources. In most cases forecast improvement apparently can be realized by combining multiple forecast inputs into a composite model. The concept of conditional efficiency then is introduced to evaluate the strength of an individual forecast input to the composite forecast. Upon finding the management judgment forecasts to be conditionally efficient on the basis of the composite model standard, the authors examine the management judgment forecasting task and environment in terms of the conditions which facilitate accurate management judgment predictions.

A rough set theory application in forecasting models

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haresh Sharma ◽  
◽  
Kriti Kumari ◽  
Samarjit Kar ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Set Theory ◽  
Rough Set ◽  
Rough Set Theory ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Theory Application

Anticipating Welfare Impacts via Travel Demand Forecasting Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 2133 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason D. Lemp ◽  
Kara M. Kockelman
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Travel Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models

A Study on the Profitability of Airlines by Using Demand Forecasting Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-97
Author(s):  
Hwi-Young Lee ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models

ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING MODELS OF BANKRUPTCY OF RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 44-47
Author(s):  
I. S. ZUBAREV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Definition Of

In the article the author examines the problems of wide application of the bankruptcy formula. For this, many terms have been considered, in particular the definition of financial insolvency, which characterizes the weaknesses of enterprises, namely, those associated with loss of liquidity and operating losses. The results show that Altman's bankruptcy formula is easily applicable in the economic conditions of the Russian Federation and is useful for predicting financial difficulties given the established definition of financial insolvency. Due to the fact that this term combines the factors of liquidity, stability, an important component of the Altman Z-model is the factor of independence, which is aimed at solving the problems that organizations face.

Apport des campagnes de mesures pour la compréhension des interactions sol-végétation-atmosphère

2020 ◽  
pp. 046
Author(s):  
Thierry Bergot ◽  
Pierre Bessemoulin ◽  
Claire Sarrat
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Surface Processes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Modélisation Numérique ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Bilan Hydrique

La synergie entre campagnes de mesures et modélisation numérique a permis de faire fortement progresser notre compréhension des interactions sol-végétation-atmosphère. Ces progrès ont conduit à l'élaboration du modèle de surface Isba développé par Joël Noilhan et utilisé aujourd'hui encore dans les modèles de prévision opérationnelle de Météo-France. Cet article vise à illustrer l'apport des campagnes de mesures dans l'amélioration de nos connaissances des processus en surface à travers trois exemples, Hapex-Mobilhy pour l'étude du bilan hydrique, Carbo-Europe pour l'étude du bilan en carbone et l'étude du brouillard sur l'aéroport Paris-CdG pour l'influence des conditions de surface sur les nuages bas. The synergy between field experiments and numerical modeling has allowed to significantly advance our understanding of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. This progress led to the ISBA surface model developed by Joël Noilhan and used today in Météo-France's operational forecasting models. This article aims to illustrate the contribution of field experiments in improving our knowledge of surface processes through three examples: Hapex-Mobilhy, Carbo-Europe, and the study of fog at Paris-CdG airport.

Temporal dependence in multi-step density forecasting models

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22
Author(s):  
Kevin Dowd
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Density Forecasting ◽  
Step Density

Improving Disease Outbreak Forecasting Models for Efficient Targeting of Public Health Resources

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lasantha Fernando ◽  
Sriganesh Lokanathan ◽  
Amal Shehan Perera ◽  
Azhar Ghouse ◽  
Hasitha Tissera
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Forecasting Models
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