Global Conclusion

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Key Parameter

This concluding chapter summarizes the principles set forth in this volume. It argues that the discount rate is a key parameter in economics because it determines how our societies value their future. The chapter aims to use the discount rate in the net present value (NPV) decision rule: to find the discount rate which gives a positive NPV only for those projects that raise the sum of present and future generations’ felicity. In that light, this chapter briefly touches upon the basic principles of discounting, the discounting of safe real cash flows, the term structure of real discount rates, the evaluation of uncertain projects, and the adaptability of projects.

A New Approach to Capital Budgeting in Closely-Held Firms and Small Firms

1981 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas H. McInish ◽  
Ronald J. Kudla
Keyword(s):  
Small Firms ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Separation Principle ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Investor Returns

The traditional application of the net present value method in capital budgeting involves the use of market derived discount rates such as the cost of capital. Justification of these discount rates stems from the separation principle that states that investment decisions can be made independent of shareholders' tastes and preferences. The purpose of this paper is to show that the separation principle does not hold for closely-held firms and small firms, and, accordingly, market-derived discount rates are inappropriate. Two capital budgeting techniques which are appropriate for these firms are presented. Accept/reject decisions for capital budgeting projects are often made using a technique known as “net present value” (NPV).1 Using the NPV method, acceptable projects are those for which the project's cost is less than the present value of the project's cash flows discounted at the firm's cost of capital; in other words, acceptable projects have a positive NPV. The firm's cost of capital is usually taken to be the weighted average of the firm's cost of equity and debt as measured by investor returns in the capital markets. Justification for use of a discount rate, determined by reference to market-wide investor returns, is based on “the separation principle” which asserts that corporations can make capital budgeting decisions independently of their shareholders' views.2 But because a critical assumption of the separation principle is that shares are readily marketable, it is likely that the separation principle and, hence, market-determined discount rates are inappropriate for closely-held firms and small firms.3 In this paper, we discuss two capital budgeting approaches which are applicable to firms whose shares are not readily marketable. This paper is divided into five sections. First, we discuss the traditional net present value approach to capital budgeting and, then, we indicate in detail, why it may not be suitable for use by closely-held firms and small firms. In the third and fourth sections, we explain two capital budgeting techniques which may be appropriate for use by these firms. Finally, we summarize our conclusions.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Evaluation of Forestry Investments: A Note

1988 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 256-258
Author(s):  
F. Christian Zinkhan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The forestry literature generally assumes that the appropriate discount rate to be used in the estimation of a given investment's net present value is the same over its lifetime. However, the values of many alternative investments such as stocks and bonds often reflect term structures that are not flat. That is, the relationship between the number of years to maturity of an investment and that investment's required rate of return is often a significant consideration. This note suggests a procedure for incorporating a consideration of the term structure of interest rates into the determination of a discount rate specific to each annual net cash flow associated with a given long-term forestry investment. Using an actual 10-year case analysis, it was found that the valuation of a timberland tract varied by approximately 11%, depending upon whether or not the term structure of interest rates was recognized. South. J. Appl. For. 12(4):256-258.

scholarly journals Reinvestment Bias When Analyzing Mutually Exclusive Assets

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sweeney
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
Current Period ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Flows Over Time

Capital budgeting decisions generally involve the commitment of resources in the current period to secure positive cash flows over time that generate a rate of return in excess of the cost of the funds invested. The most common techniques used to perform this analysis are the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).Conceptually, these two techniques are substitutable; i.e. the resulting decision from a NPV analysis is identical to the decision from an IRR analysis. In practice, however, the NPV and the IRR can, on occasion, produce conflicting decisions. Specifically, when analyzing mutually exclusive assets the Net Present Value can support one asset while the Internal Rate of Return supports the other. The purpose of this paper is twofold; first, to highlight structural deficiencies in the conventional application of the NPV and the IRR, and second, to demonstrate a procedure to correct for these structural errors.

High Discounts and High Unemployment

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Discount Rates ◽  
Present Value ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Business Income ◽  
New Hire

Unemployment is high when financial discounts are high. In recessions, the stock market falls and all types of investment fall, including employers' investment in job creation. The discount rate implicit in the stock market rises, and discounts for other claims on business income also rise. A higher discount implies a lower present value of the benefit of a new hire to an employer. According to the leading view of unemployment—the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model—when the incentive for job creation falls, the labor market slackens and unemployment rises. Thus high discount rates imply high unemployment. (JEL E24, E32, E44, J23, J31, J63)

The Weitzman Argument

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Net Benefits

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Value of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Services under Different Scenarios in the Central China (the Qinling-Daba Mountain Area)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuyang Yu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Zixiang Zhou ◽  
Li Zeng ◽  
Cheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Mountain Area

The Qinling-Daba Mountain area is a transitional zone between north and south China and not much is known about its carbon storage, particularly its pool of soil organic carbon (SOC). Given this shortcoming, more reliable information regarding its SOC is needed. In light of this, we quantified above and below-ground carbon sinks using both the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using the NPV model. Our results indicated that the net primary productivity (NPP) was lower in places with low density forests that were situated at high elevation. The spatial distribution of carbon storage depended on NPP production and litter decompositon, which reflected specific vegetation as well as temperature and moisture gradients. The lowest amounts of carbon storage were in the center of the Qinling Mountains and also partly in the Daba area, which is a location associated with sparse grassland. Contrastingly, the broad-leaved forested area showed the highest amount of carbon storage. NPV was positively correlated with discount rate and carbon prices, thus resulting in the highest values in the forests and grassland. The net present value of total soil carbon sequestration in the six scenarios in 2015 was 3.555 b yuan, 3.621 b yuan, 5.421 b yuan, 5.579 b yuan, 7.530 b yuan, 7.929 b yuan; The net present value of total soil carbon sequestration in 6 scenarios in 2017 is 2.816 b yuan, 2.845 b yuan, 4.361 b yuan, 4.468 b yuan, 6.144 b yuan, 6.338 b yuan (billion = 109; b; RMB is the legal currency of the China, and its unit is yuan, 1 euro = 7.7949 yuan, and 1 pound = 9.2590 yuan). Levying a carbon tax would be a notable option for decision makers as they develop carbon emission reduction policies. Given this, incorporating discount rates and carbon pricing would allow for more realistic value estimations of soil organic carbon. This approach would also provide a theoretical basis and underscore the practical significance for the government to set a reasonable carbon price.

Value-Creating Investment Strategies to Manage Risk From Structural Market Uncertainties: Switching and Compound Options in (V)HTR Technologies

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike La¨uferts ◽  
Charlotte Halbe ◽  
Aliki van Heek
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Technology Investment ◽  
Compound Options ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Strategic Value

To measure the value of a technology investment under uncertainty with standard techniques like net present value (NPV) or return on investment (ROI) will often uncover the difficulty to present convincing business case. Projected cash flows are inefficient or the discount rate chosen to compensate for the risk is so high, that it is disagreeable to the investor’s requirements. Decision making and feasibility studies have to look beyond traditional analysis to reveal the strategic value of a technology investment. Here, a Real Option Analysis (ROA) offers a powerful alternative to standard discounted cash-flow (DCF) methodology by risk-adjusting the cash flow along the decision path rather than risk adjusting the discount rate. Within the GEN IV initiative attention is brought not only towards better sustainability, but also to broader industrial application and improved financing. Especially the HTR design is full of strategic optionalities: The high temperature output facilitates penetration into other non-electricity energy markets like industrial process heat applications and the hydrogen market. The flexibility to switch output in markets with multi-source uncertainties reduces downside risk and creates an additional value of over 50% with regard to the Net Present Value without flexibility. The supplement value of deploying a modular (V)HTR design adds over 100% to the project value using real option evaluation tools. Focus of this paper was to quantify the strategic value that comes along a) with the modular design; a design that offers managerial flexibility adapting a step-by-step investment strategy to the actual market demand and b) with the option to switch between two modes of operation, namely electricity and hydrogen production. We will demonstrate that the effect of uncertain electricity prices can be dampened down with a modular HTR design. By using a real option approach, we view the project as a series of compound options — each option depending on the exercise of those that preceded it. At each end of the design phase, the viability will be reviewed conditional on the operating spread at each time step. We quantify the value of being able to wait with the investment into a next block until market conditions are favourable and to be able to abandon one block if market conditions are disapproving. To derive the intrinsic value of this multi block HTR design, it will be compared with a reference investment of a full commitment light water reactor without any managerial flexibility. In another case, we raise the question to what extent product output diversification is a suitable strategy to cope with long term market uncertainty in electricity price. What is the value of a multi-potent technology that is able to produce output for energy markets others than the electricity market? To investigate this, we concentrate on The Netherlands, a country with an intense industrial demand in electricity and hydrogen.

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