scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Omani Narrow Money Supply (M1) - (1980-2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Khlaf Al Omari ◽  
Mr. Abubakar El-Sidig Ali Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

The Omani economy frequently moves in unison with changing oil prices because it is highly dependent on this commodity. Given this relationship, it is reasonable to theorize that the Omani narrow money supply (M1) is also sensitive to oil price fluctuations. This study examines the linkages between oil price changes and the M1 money supply in Oman for the period 1980 to 2016 and analyzes the nature of discovered relationships. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used to test the relationship between Omani oil price fluctuations and the money supply over time from 37 annual observations. This study finds that changes in oil prices and the M1 money supply are strongly correlated in the long run, which has implications for policymakers looking to diversify the Omani economy.

Does Oil Price Asymmetrically Impact Remittance Outflows? The Case of Oman

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Selçuk Akçay
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Abstract The mechanism by which oil price affects remittance outflows is not well understood and investigated. Using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (Shin, Yu, and. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2014. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, vol. 44, edited by R. C. Sickles, and W. C. Horrace, 281–314. New York: Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9), this study mainly seeks to investigate the asymmetric impact of oil prices on remittance outflows over the period from 1975 to 2015, for an oil-based economy, Oman. The results of the study reveal that changes in oil price are asymmetrically associated with remittance outflows in both short and long run. Furthermore, the response of remittance outflows to developments in oil prices is different in a way that positive shocks in oil prices promote remittance outflows, while negative shocks have no significant impact.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINANT PROFITABILITAS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2011-2018 PENDEKATAN AUTO REGRESIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102
Author(s):  
Gita Martha Permatasari ◽  
Dian Filianti
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lag Model

This study aims to determine the influence of the Macro Economy, namely GDP and Inflation and Bank Characteristics, namely CAR, FDR, NPF, BOPO and Size on the Profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry in Indonesia in the 2011 - 2018 Period. The data used are secondary data, namely quarterly data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id), Badan Pusat Statistik (www.bps.go.id), and Statistik Perbankan Syariah reports published by OJK (www.ojk.go.id). The sampling method used was purposive sampling method. The analysis technique uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model with statistical tools EViews 9. The results of the study show that in the short term of the GDP, Inflation, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the CAR, FDR, NPF variables have no significant effect on profitability of Islamic Banking Industry. Meanwhile in the long run of the GDP, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the Inflation, CAR, FDR, NPF variable does not significantly influence the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry.Keywords: Profitability, Sharia Bank, ARDL

scholarly journals Oil Price, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emissions in Turkey. New Evidence from a Bootstrap ARDL Test

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 5588
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abumunshar ◽  
Mehmet Aga ◽  
Ahmed Samour
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Imported Oil

The main objective of this research was to test the effect of oil prices, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on Turkey’s carbon emissions by using three co-integration tests, namely, the newly-developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing technique as proposed by (McNown et al., 2018); the new approach involving the Bayer–Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test; and the H-J (2008) co-integration technique, which induces two dates of structural breaks. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) approaches were utilized to test the long-run interaction between the examined variables. The Granger causality (GC) analysis was utilized to investigate the direction of causality among the variables. The long-run coefficients of ARDL, DOLS, CCR, and FMOLS showed that the oil prices had a negative influence on CO2 emissions in Turkey in the long run. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that non-renewable energy, which includes oil, natural gas, and coal, increased CO2 emissions. In contrast, renewable energy can decrease the environmental pollution. These empirical findings can be attributed to the fact that Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil; more than 50% of the energy requirement has been supplied by imports. Hence, oil price fluctuations have severe effects on the economic performance in Turkey, which in turn affects energy consumption and the level of carbon emissions. The study suggests that the rate of imported oil in Turkey must be decreased by finding more renewable energy sources for the energy supply formula to avoid any undesirable effects of oil price fluctuations on the CO2 emissions, and also to achieve sustainable development.

DO OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AFFECT THE INFLATION RATE IN INDONESIA ASYMMETRICALLY?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
LIM THYE GOH ◽  
SIONG HOOK LAW ◽  
IRWAN TRINUGROHO
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Price Reduction ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

Changes in the oil price directly affect production costs, and subsequently, the general price level of products. With Indonesia observing an inflation targeting policy, this study applies the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations in Indonesia. The relationship is important for the central bank to gauge the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy in immunizing the country from oil price fluctuations. Our findings have revealed that there was an asymmetric behavior between oil price and the inflation rate (producer price index), thus questioning the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy. More specifically, in the long run, an increase in the oil price will tend to lead to an increase in the rate of inflation with a greater deviation, while an oil price reduction will lead to a decrease in the inflation rate with a lower deviation. This suggests that the benefits of an oil price reduction are not passed down to the consumer.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

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