ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will increase the enterprises productivity.

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THE TESTING OF MONEY NEUTRALITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA

Management and Economics Journal (MEC-J) ◽

10.18860/mec-j.v1i1.4575 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 12

Author(s):

Muammil Sun’an ◽

Amran Husen

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Output Growth ◽

Broad Sense ◽

Series Data ◽

Analysis Tool ◽

Real Sector ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model

This study aim is to test the money neutrality in a narrow sense (M1) and a broad sense (M2) to the growth of output (GDP) in Indonesia, both in short term and long term. This research uses quarterly time series data at 2010 - 2016 periods. The analysis tool used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that short-term money supply (M1 and M2) affect on output growth. However, in the long term, only money circulation in a broad sense (M2) affects on output growth, which also means that money is not neutral because it affects the real sector (GDP). Keywords: M1, M2, Population, Capital, and Economic Growth.

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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GLOBALISASI EKONOMI DAN PENGANGGURAN: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA

Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan ◽

10.26418/jebik.v10i3.49278 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 263

Author(s):

Ari Setyawan ◽

I Wayan Suparta ◽

Neli Aida

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Economic Globalization ◽

Series Data ◽

Real Wages ◽

Short Term ◽

The Government

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the effect of economic globalization on the unemployment rate in Indonesia and the relationship of other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate, and real wage with unemployment. The data used is in the form of annual time series data from 1986 to 2018, whose research results are analyzed using the ARDL method. This study concludes that economic globalization can reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia in the short term, although in the long term, it increases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation in the short and long term have not been able to reduce the current unemployment rate, while the increase in real wages has reduced the unemployment rate in the short term, although not in the long term. By looking at these results, we need to be wary of economic globalization because economic globalization has a destructive impact in the long term. So that concrete and consistent efforts are needed from the government, the private sector, and other stakeholders so that Indonesia gets the maximum benefit from economic globalization, especially in job creation and reducing unemployment.JEL : B22, E22.Keywords : unemployment, economic globalization, economic growth, inflation, real wages. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan melihat pengaruh tingkat globalisasi ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia serta hubungan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat upah riil dengan tingkat pengangguran. Data yang dipergunakan berupa data time series tahunan dari periode 1986 hingga 2018 yang hasil penelitiannya dianalisis menggunakan metode ARDL. Kesimpulan penelitian ini yaitu globalisasi ekonomi mampu mengurangi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek meskipun dalam jangka panjang malah meningkatkan tingkat pengangguran. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjangnya belum mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran yang ada sedangkan naiknya upah riil mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran dalam jangka pendek meskipun tidak dalam jangka panjang. Dengan melihat hasil ini, kita perlu waspada terhadap globalisasi ekonomi karena globalisasi ekonomi ini memiliki dampak buruk dalam jangka panjang sehingga dibutuhkan upaya kongkrit dan konsisten baik dari pemerintah, swasta maupun para stakeholder lain agar Indonesia memperoleh manfaat yang sebesar-besarnya dari globalisasi ekonomi khusunya dalam upaya penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengurangi pengangguran.

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Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah dalam Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Tahun 2010-2018

Journal of Islamic Economics (JoIE) ◽

10.21154/joie.v1i1.3081 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nur Afriyanti ◽

Luhur Prasetiyo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Perubahan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang Dollar Amerika Serikat dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor. Di antara faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar adalah kenaikan harga umum (inflasi) dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data Error Correction Model (ECM) dan teknik pemilihan sampel menggunakan sampel jenuh dari populasi yang berjumlah 36. Sampel dalam penelitian ini yaitu data time series/triwulan inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan nilai tukar dengan periode pengamatan selama 9 tahun yaitu tahun 2010-2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar tidak dipengaruhi oleh variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Secara bersama-sama variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar.The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of inflation dan economic growth on Rupiah exchange rate, both long-term and short-term. The movement of Rupiah exchange rate to US Dollar is influenced by many factors. Among the factors affecting the exchange rate are general price increases (inflation) and economic growth. This research uses Error Correction Model (ECM) for data analysis. The population in this study amounted to 36. The sample selection technique is saturated sample. The sample in this research is time series data on quarterly inflation, economic growth and the exchange rate in the period of 9 years, namely 2010-2018. The results show that in the long-term the exchange rate is influenced by inflation and economic growth. Whereas in the short-term the exchange rate is not influenced by inflation and economic growth variables. Furthermore, inflation and economic growth variables have a significant effect on the exchange rate variable.

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Analisis ekspor kopi Indonesia

Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika ◽

10.22437/paradigma.v12i1.3929 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Rexsi Nopriyandi ◽

Haryadi Haryadi

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Government Agencies ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Coffee Price

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesian coffee exports. The data in this study is time series data, which were obtained from various government agencies. The Error Correction Model (ECM) method is used to analyze the effect of coffee prices, GDP and the exchange rate on the volume of Indonesian coffee exports. The estimation results find that coffee prices, Indonesian GDP and exchange rates have a short-term relationship and a long-term balance of the volume of coffee exports. Based on the long-term estimation of the coffee price variable, GDP and exchange rates do not significantly affect the volume of coffee exports, while in the short term these three variables influence the volume of coffee exports

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Analisis cadangan devisa Indonesia dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya

Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika ◽

10.22437/paradigma.v12i1.3931 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 25-30

Author(s):

Pundy Sayoga ◽

Syamsurijal Tan

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Exchange Rates ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Government Agencies ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Coffee Price

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Analisis Peningkatan Upah Minimum Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jawa Tengah

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.23960/jep.v10i3.291 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 134-143

Author(s):

Annisa Yulianti ◽

Hadi Sasana

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Minimum Wage ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Central Java ◽

Meaningful Relationship ◽

Short Time ◽

Relationship Of

This study aims to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship of increasing the minimum wage in Central Java on employment. The research method used is ECM. The variables of this study include labor, minimum wages, PMDN, and economic growth. The data used are time-series data from 1990-2020. The results show that the minimum wage has a positive and significant relationship to the employment in the long term but not significantly in the short time. PMDN has a negative but significant correlation in the short and long term. At the same time, the variable economic growth has a positive but not meaningful relationship to employment absorption in the long and short term.

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Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2012/387857 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Jia Chaolong ◽

Xu Weixiang ◽

Wang Futian ◽

Wang Hanning

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Measuring Point ◽

Trend Forecasting ◽

Changing Trend ◽

Track Irregularity ◽

Linear Differential

The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM(1,1)is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

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Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Network for Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Modelling

International Journal of Engineering & Technology ◽

10.14419/ijet.v7i4.15.21365 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (4.15) ◽

pp. 25 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽

Hitham Alhussian ◽

Muhammad Nazmi ◽

Asim A Elsheikh

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Time Series ◽

Recurrent Neural Network ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Long Short Term Memory

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.

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Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Jumlah Penghimpunan Zakat di Indonesia

Jurnal Ekonomi ◽

10.24912/je.v25i2.652 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 199

Author(s):

Sheema Haseena Armina

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Dollar Exchange Rate ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Analysis Technique

Purpose this study analyzes the effect of the industrial production index, the dollar exchange rate, inflation and the BI 7DRR on the amount of zakat collection from January 2015 to December 2018to identify the potential of zakat to support alleviation in Indonesia. Methodology/Approach: this study uses a quantitative approach with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) data analysis technique with time series data from Januari 2015 t0 December 2018. Findings: The results show that in short term causality, there is an effect between long-term and short-term between zakat as the dependent variable with inflation and the dollar exchange rate. However, there is no short-term causality effect between BI 7-DRR and IPI to the amount of zakat while the long-term causality effect, all independent variables have a significant effect to the dependent variable namely zakat. Implications: The integration of Islamic philanthropic institutions has the potential to channel aid and support to alleviate poverty. This study adds the IPI variable to interpret the GDP variable in analyzing its effect on zakat.

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