scholarly journals The Role of El Nino Variability and Peatland in Burnt Area and Emitted Carbon in Forest Fire Modeling

2022 ◽  
pp. 84-103
Author(s):  
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Peat Fire ◽  
Ground Fire ◽  
Limited Input Data

This study was conducted to model fire occurrence within El Nino variability and peatland distribution. These climate and geographical factors have a significant impact on forest fires in tropical areas such as Indonesia. The re-analysis dataset from ECMWF was observed with respect to climate characteristics in Indonesian El Nino events. The INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) was utilized to simulate fires over Borneo Island due to its capability to simulate large-scale fires with simplified parameters. There were some adjustments in this INFERNO model, especially for peat fire as peatland has a significant impact on fires. The first was the contribution of climate to the peat fire which is represented by long-term precipitation. The second was the combustion completeness of peat fire occurrence that is mainly affected by human-induced peat drainage. The result of the model shows that El Nino variability mainly affected peat fires but was unable to well simulate the above-ground fire. It increased the burnt area during strong El Nino but overestimated the fires during low/no El Nino season due to lack of peat fire ignition in the calculation. Moreover, as the model did not provide peat drainage simulation, it underestimated the carbon emission. This model has shown promising results by addressing key features in limited input data, but improving some simulations is necessary for regulating weak/no El Nino conditions and carbon combustion of peat fire.

scholarly journals Effects of the 2006 El Niño on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide: implications for dynamics and biomass burning

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 4239-4249 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Chandra ◽  
J. R. Ziemke ◽  
B. N. Duncan ◽  
T. L. Diehl ◽  
N. J. Livesey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
The North ◽  
Tropospheric O3

Abstract. We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Niño on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Niño-induced drought caused forest fires (largely set to clear land) to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of CO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative importance of biomass burning and large scale transport in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO. The model results show that during October and November biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4–6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense. The dynamical component was 4–8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass burning was reduced to zero and the observed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2–3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burden of CO increased by 8–12%.

scholarly journals Effects of the 2006 El Niño on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide: implications for dynamics and biomass burning

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2735-2761
Author(s):  
S. Chandra ◽  
J. R. Ziemke ◽  
B. N. Duncan ◽  
T. L. Diehl ◽  
N. J. Livesey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
The North ◽  
Tropospheric O3

Abstract. We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Niño on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Niño-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of CO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative importance of biomass burning and large scale transport in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO. The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4–6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense. The dynamical component was 4–8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass burning was reduced to zero and the observed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2–3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burden of CO increased by 8–12%.

scholarly journals INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the Met Office's Unified Model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephane Mangeon ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis ◽  
Richard Gilham ◽  
Anna Harper ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Fuel Density ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Key Species

Abstract. Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in a large-scale Earth System Model (ESM). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal to centennial scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity, fuel density as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the JULES land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics which we document and compare with our fire scheme. Two meteorology datasets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain.

scholarly journals INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2685-2700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane Mangeon ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis ◽  
Richard Gilham ◽  
Anna Harper ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Key Species ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in large-scale Earth system models (ESMs). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal- to centennial-scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity (RH) and fuel load as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, the burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics, which we document and compare with our fire scheme. We found INFERNO captured global burnt area variability better than individual indices, and these performed best for their native regions. Two meteorology data sets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain.

scholarly journals Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1003-1011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Martin Fearnside
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Temperature Oscillations

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

scholarly journals Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burnt area

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1449-1459 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. N. Fletcher ◽  
L. E. O. C. Aragão ◽  
A. Lima ◽  
Y. Shimabukuro ◽  
P. Friedlingstein
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fractal Properties ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. Current methods for modelling burnt area in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation, but undeniably useful for modelling specific, small-scale burns. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia in 2005, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. This model is intended for predicting large-scale burnt area rather than looking at individual fire events. A simple parameterization of a tapered fractal distribution is calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burnt area map. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the total area burnt (16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using the MODIS MCD14ML active fire product, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but the magnitude of the differences between these estimates and the GFED3.1 burnt area products varies per continent.

Using Satellite Altimeter and SST Observations of the 1997-1998 El Nino to Check the Key Ocean Processes Involved in a Strong El Nino.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Webb ◽  
Andrew Coward ◽  
Helen Snaith
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Satellite Altimeter ◽  
The North ◽  
Satellite Sst ◽  
Model Study ◽  
North Equatorial Counter Current ◽  
Equatorial Current

<p>A recent high-resolution ocean model study of the strong El Ninos of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 highlighted a previously neglected ocean mechanism which was active during their growth.   The mechanism involved a weakening of both the Equatorial Current and the tropical instability eddies in mid-ocean.  It also involved an increase in the strength of the North Equatorial Counter Current due to the passage of the annual Rossby wave.</p><p>      This presentation reports how satellite altimeter and satellite SST data was used to validate the model results the key areas, confirming the changes in the current and eddy fields and the resulting eastward extension of the region of highest SST values.  The SST changes were sufficient to trigger new regions deep-atmospheric convection and so had the potential to have a significant impact on the development of the El Nino and the resulting changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation.</p>

scholarly journals Contrasting the suitability of shade coffee agriculture and native forest as overwinter habitat for Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) in the Colombian Andes

The Condor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana M González ◽  
Scott Wilson ◽  
Nicholas J Bayly ◽  
Keith A Hobson
Keyword(s):  
Body Condition ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Winter Habitat ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Shade Coffee ◽  
Annual Survival

Abstract In the Neotropics, coffee production occurs on a large scale in some of the planet’s most biodiverse regions: tropical mountains. Coffee production systems involving shade trees are considered to have a lower impact on biodiversity than alternative sun coffee. To date, the majority of evidence for the value of shade coffee plantations has not taken into account the relative quality of this habitat compared to the native forests they replaced. We determined the suitability of shade coffee and forest as winter habitat for Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) by comparing variation in the likelihood of capturing individuals, seasonal changes in body condition, and estimates of annual survival between the 2 habitats. We also determined the effect of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event on survival. Males were relatively more likely to be captured in forest than females and this likelihood increased during drier years. Body condition change over the winter and apparent annual survival were similar for individuals that used forest and coffee. However, condition and survival decreased in both habitats during the El Niño year. Apparent survival was also lower for individuals carrying a radiotag or geolocator. Our findings suggest that shade coffee with high canopy cover and height offers similar benefits to forest in terms of body condition and survival. Landscape conservation approaches, promoting diverse matrices of structurally complex shade coffee and forest might best ensure long-term survival in Neotropical migrants like Canada Warbler.

scholarly journals Observation of ENSO linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
High Cloud ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Linear Decrease

Abstract. 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data is analyzed to identify possible changes of the cloud vertical distribution over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO). For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. Within the investigated period, no significant trend in the domain-averaged cloud vertical distribution was found. In terms of linear changes, two major phases (before and after November 2011) in the time-series of the TAO domain-average Cloud Top Height (CTH) and High Cloud Fraction (HCF) can be distinguished. While phase 1 is dominated by a significant linear increase, phase 2 is characterized by a strong, significant linear decrease. The observed trends were mainly caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The increase in CTH and HCF in phase 1, was attributed to the transition from El Niño (2002) to La Niña (2011) conditions. The strong decrease in phase 2, was caused by the opposite transition from a La Niña (2011) to a major El Niño event (2016). A comparison with the large scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa obtained from ERA-Interim ECMWF Re-Analyses and the Nino3.4-Index indicates that the changes in HCF are induced by ENSO linked changes in the large scale vertical upward movements over regions with strong large scale ascent. A first comparison with the DARDAR data set, which combines CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar measurements, shows qualitatively good agreements for the interannual variability of the high cloud amount and its linear decrease in phase 2.

scholarly journals Analysis and quantification of ENSO-linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 13535-13546
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
High Cloud

Abstract. A total of 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data are used to quantify possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution over the tropical Atlantic. For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. For the investigated time period significant linear changes were found in the domain-averaged cloud-top height (CTH) (−178 m per decade), the high-cloud fraction (HCF) (−0.0006 per decade), and the low-cloud amount (0.001 per decade). The interannual variability of the time series (especially CTH and HCF) is highly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Separating the time series into two phases, we quantified the linear change associated with the transition from more La Niña-like conditions to a phase with El Niño conditions (Phase 2) and vice versa (Phase 1). The transition from negative to positive ENSO conditions was related to a decrease in total cloud fraction (TCF) (−0.018 per decade; not significant) due to a reduction in the high-cloud amount (−0.024 per decade; significant). Observed anomalies in the mean CTH were found to be mainly caused by changes in HCF rather than by anomalies in the height of cloud tops themselves. Using the large-scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa (from ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis data), the observed anomalies were linked to ENSO-induced changes in the atmospheric large-scale dynamics. The most significant and largest changes were found in regions with strong large-scale upward movements near the Equator. Despite the fact that with passive imagers such as MODIS it is not possible to vertically resolve clouds, this study shows the great potential for large-scale analysis of possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution due to the changing climate by using vertically resolved cloud cover and linking those changes to large-scale dynamics using other observations or model data.

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