scholarly journals Estimated Policy Effects on Vietnam’s Exports to Its Major APEC Trade Partners: A Gravity Model Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. 02-14
Author(s):  
IM ERIC IKSOON ◽  
Vu Tam Bang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Model Approach

This paper carries out an empirical assessment of the effects of a set of policy determinants of Vietnam?s exports to its five major Asia Pacific trade partners (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and US) over 23 years from 1989 to 2011. In doing so, a gravity model is employed, which includes two sets of variables: one for gravity variables, and the other for policy-related variables. The latter includes four policy variables: real exchange rate, trade liberalization, anti-corruption activity, and WTO membership status. The effects of real exchange rate and anti-corruption activity are each specified as a linear function of the degree of trade liberalization to capture the indirect effects of trade liberalization on Vietnam?s exports over time. The effect of trade liberalization on Vietnam?s exports is specified as linear dependent on its WTO membership status to capture its direct effect and the additional effect attributable to Vietnam?s accession to WTO on its exports. We find that Vietnam?s trade liberalization has direct and indirect positive impacts on its trades, and its accession to WTO has a positive effect as well, contrary to some criticism otherwise.

scholarly journals Productivity Demand Shocks And Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ordean Olson
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Relative Productivity

The evidence for a productivity-based explanation for real exchange rate behavior of East Asian currencies is examined using sectoral output and employment data, relative prices and relative productivities for China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Time series regressions of the real exchange rate on relative productivity ratios indicate significant relationships for the Philippines, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. Only when augmenting the regressions with real oil prices are significant relationships obtained for Indonesia and Japan. Panel regression results are less supportive of a relative productivity view of real exchange rates except for Hong Kong, China and Thailand. Surprisingly, government spending does not appear to be a determinant of real exchange rates except for the countries of Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand.

scholarly journals The effect of ASEAN-korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesia trade: a gravity model approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Arjun Saka Agung ◽  
Zulkarnain Ishak ◽  
Imam Asngari ◽  
Abdul Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Model Approach

The aim of this research is to analyze the effect of ASEAN Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesia Trade with gravity model approach using panel data. This research is using Hausman and Chow test to choose the best between the Fixed Effect model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM). The test result shows that REM is the best model choosen to analyze the effect from GDP per capita, Exchange rate, distance and AKFTA Policy to the import from 14 AKFTA country economies to Indonesia. The result from R2 shows that the variation of independent variables (GDP per capita, Exchange rate, distance and AKFTA Policies) affected the variation of dependent variable (Import) as 54 percent. Meanwhile, from the gravity theory, the trade among AKFTA economies to Indonesia has bring positive impact as the distance has positive sign and lead to form trade creation. The variable of dummy policy has negative and significantly affected the import.

scholarly journals Analysis of Current Account and Real Exchange Rate: Lower Middle Income Countries in Association of Southeast Asian Nations

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5C) ◽  
pp. 662-668
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The study investigates the simultaneous equation model of the current account and real exchange rates in group of lower middle income in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study uses time series from 2000-2017 (18 years) and cross section 6 countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Lao, Myanmar, and Cambodia). There are three important findings in this study; first, for the current account is financial development has positive effect while government spending and foreign direct investment have negative effect; second, for the real exchange rate is economic openness, money supply, and interest rate have positive effect while foreign direct investment and current account have negative effect; third, only current account affects real exchange rates. Therefore, it is highly recommended for group of lower middle income in ASEAN to intervene in monetary policy variables so that uncontrolled deficits and fluctuations can achieve equilibrium in group of lower middle income in ASEAN.

scholarly journals The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm Entry and Exit in Punjab, Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-89
Author(s):  
Marjan Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Firm Entry ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Firm Entry And Exit ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This study focuses on the impact of trade liberalization on firm entry and exit in Punjab’s export manufacturing sector over the decade 2001–10. As far as the province’s export industries are concerned, real exchange rate depreciation attracts new firms but also leads weaker firms to exit. A reduction in local or international tariffs, however, has no significant impact on firm entry or exit.

scholarly journals Long term dynamic of real exchange rate, trade liberalization and financial integration: The case of south-east Mediterranean countries

2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-93
Author(s):  
Hadj Amor ◽  
Araj El
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
East Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
International Financial Integration ◽  
Trade Opening

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of the trade liberalization and of the international financial integration on the long-term behavior of Real Exchange Rate (RER) for the South East Mediterranean countries. So the following question: how does the new trade and financial context affect the Equilibrium RER? We refer to the econometric technique of time series analysis, (the unit root tests of Dickey-Fuller (1979) and we apply the cointegration test of Engle and Granger (1987) of single equation for six South East Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey) over the period of 1979-2004. Our estimates suggest that, for the six countries, long-term RER behavior depends essentially on economic specificity of each country and in particular on their degree of financial integration and trade opening. Our results also show that the evolution of the RER misalignment during our sample period, seem to be for some countries persistant and recurrent, but with decrease.

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