Economic and Environmental Impacts of the Bio-ethanol Introduction Policy in Vietnam: Evidence from a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoji KUNIMITSU
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

scholarly journals Economic Impacts of Thailand’s Biofuel Subsidy Reallocation Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2272
Author(s):  
Korrakot Phomsoda ◽  
Nattapong Puttanapong ◽  
Mongkut Piantanakulchai
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Energy Crop ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Price Subsidy ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

For two decades, the Thai government has been promoting ethanol and biodiesel consumption through tax measures and price subsidies. Although this policy has substantially increased the consumption and production of biofuels, there is concern regarding its future fiscal burden. Due to fiscal constraints, the Thai government has planned to completely terminate the biofuel subsidy by 2022. This study aims at examining the economy-wide impacts of removing the biofuel subsidy and also conducting simulations of alternative scenarios, i.e., improving the yield of energy crops and reallocating the burden to expand capital investment in energy crop plantations. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used as the main quantitative method to conduct four simulation scenarios. This model was validated by comparing the simulation results with the actual 2015–2019 data and showed low values of root mean square error (RMSE). The simulation results indicate that solely terminating the price subsidy would lead to economy-wide contraction. Meanwhile, eliminating the price subsidy along with influencing crop yield improvement and expanding capital investment in energy crop plantations would lead to the lowest negative impacts. Therefore, the termination of the price subsidy should be simultaneously implemented with supply-side expansions.

scholarly journals Contribution of VAT to economic growth: A dynamic CGE analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 26-55
Author(s):  
Jean Luc Erero ◽  
◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South African ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Dynamic Cge ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

Aim/purpose–This study sought to assess the impact of an increased historical fixed VAT rate of 14% to the current rate of 15% on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach–The method applied in this study was based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of both the VAT rate of 14% and a new rate of 15% on the South African economy. The CGE model has been proven over the years to be a suitable model when evaluating the impact assessment of any shock within an economy. Enhancements were made by the researcher to the direct and indirect tax section of the model, i.e., the direct tax section was disaggregated, such that for both firm and household revenues, a dividend income stream is separated from other income streams. The main reason is to facilitate a detailed analysis of Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT), as well as the latest implemented Dividend Tax (DT).Findings–When VAT was increased from 14% to 15%, the immediate reaction of the shock from the Dynamic CGE model indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.0002% in 2018, but increased by 0.0028% in the following year (2019). The trend continued until 2021, hence the 1% increase in the VAT tax rate will increase the expected forecast of VAT collection by approximately R3.2 billion on average. Research implications/limitations–The findings of this study will be implemented by the South African government, which will use a dynamic CGE model to assess South Africa’s VAT contribution to the economy. The database of the CGE model was limited to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2015. Originality/value/contribution–The study recommends the use of this method for assessing the impact of tax policy changes to the South African economy. The CGE model seems to be the best model as far as the impact assessment of a shock in the econ-omy is concerned. This will assist the South African authorities with their decision mak-ing regarding future VAT revenue. Keywords: South African Revenue Service (SARS), Value Added tax (VAT), Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.JEL Classification:H21, C68, E62.

scholarly journals The Issue of Macroeconomic Closure Revisited and Extended

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Ernő Zalai ◽  
Tamás Révész
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Competitive Equilibrium ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
Cge Models ◽  
Policy Simulations

Léon Walras (1874) had already realised that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investments. In the early 1960s, Amartya Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, and thus one should loosen some neo-classical conditions of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well-determined in the case of fixed investment. His list was later extended by others and it was shown that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. It was also illustrated through several numerical models that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investments into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses are done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multi-sectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and — to a somewhat lesser extent — of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables using the same closure option, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

scholarly journals Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-214
Author(s):  
Ranjith Ihalanayake
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Short Run

In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KERJA SAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EAEU) TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Deky Paryadi ◽  
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Vegetable Foodstuffs ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eurasian Region ◽  
Elimination Scheme

 Abstrak Kawasan Eurasia merupakan wilayah yang penting secara geopolitik dan geostrategi bagi perdagangan Indonesia. Melihat potensi yang dimiliki oleh negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Indonesia diharapkan dapat memanfaatkan peluang yang terbuka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi daya saing komoditas serta dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) dan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data dasar GTAP versi 9 menggunakan enam simulasi. Berdasarkan analisis TCI, tingkat kesesuaian ekspor EAEU terhadap struktur impor Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspor Indonesia terhadap struktur impor EAEU. Dengan melihat dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU terhadap makroekonomi Indonesia, penurunan tarif bea masuk sebesar 50% untuk seluruh produk Indonesia dan EAEU merupakan alternatif kebijakan terbaik. Indonesia perlu menjajaki kemungkinan kerja sama dengan EAEU dengan pendekatan berupa eliminasi 50% pada seluruh pos tarif secara bertahap. Selain itu, disarankan Indonesia fokus pada komoditas yang memiliki daya saing di pasar EAEU yaitu sektor animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/ rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; dan transportation.AbstractThe Eurasian region is an important area for Indonesia in term of geopolitic and geostrategy. Due to the economic potential of EAEU countries, Indonesia must take advantage of it. This study aims to determine the potential competitiveness of commodities and the impact of trade cooperation between Indonesia-EAEU. Methods used in this study were Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model utilizing basic data of GTAP version 9 of six simulations. By using TCI method it was found that the comformity level of EAEU's export to Indonesia's import structure is higher than Indonesia's exports to the EAEU import structure. Looking at the impact of Indonesia-EAEU trade cooperation on Indonesia’s economy, tariff reduction of 50% for all Indonesian products and EAEU is the best policy alternative for Indonesia. Therefore, It is a must to Indonesia to explore the possibility of cooperation with EAEU with a 50% elimination scheme gradually to all tariff lines. Indonesia should also focus on commodities which have competitiveness in EAEU market i.e. animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; and transportation.

scholarly journals General Equilibrium Effects of Lower Labor Tax Burden in Croatia

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (s1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozana Nadoveza ◽  
Tomislav Sekur ◽  
Marija Beg
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Labor Tax ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Cge Modeling

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of lower labor tax burden in Croatia by using Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is a 5-sector (households, firms, government, investors and foreigners) model and economy is disaggregated on three highly aggregated sectors. One of the major advantages of CGE modeling is the evaluation of the overall effects of policy changes, shocks and reforms in the economy. We do this by lowering taxes on labor and simulating changes of all endogenous variables in the model simultaneously. Lastly, we provide sensitivity analysis results. Our results suggest that it is possible to encourage domestic production by reducing taxes on labor, but the potential effects on unemployment should be revised as to get more accurate estimates.

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