scholarly journals G Cubed Model Analysis: The Impact of Loss of Confidence In Emerging Countries on The World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ardi Sugiyarto
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Financial Flow ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equilibrium Economic ◽  
The Impact

<p>Financial liberalization has significant role in fostering economic growth in the developing countries. However, it also cause a risk for the emerging countries when the advanced countries make an interest rate adjustment. This paper try to examine the economic adjustment both on emerging countries and advanced countries in response to the shift of risk perception in emerging countries. This study will simulate the shock of risk perception in emerging countries by using intertemporal general equilibrium economic model that are called G-Cubed Model. The simulation result from the model indicates that international financial flow has a significant role in explaining the spill over effect of the lost confidence in emerging countries. In the short run, there is a significant drop in consumption and private investment in emerging countries. In the long run output of the emerging countries is expected steady below the baseline. On the other hand, in advanced countries, there is a significant increase in private consumption and investment in the short run. Moreover, it is expected that lower interest rate stimulates the investment in the future in advanced countries.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: G-Cubed, emerging, simulation, risk, financial flow</p><p><em>Liberalisasi keuangan memiliki peran penting dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara berkembang. Namun, liberalisasi keuangan juga akan menimbulkan risiko bagi negara-negara berkembang ketika negara-negara maju melakukan penyesuaian suku bunga.</em><em> </em><em>Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis dampak dari pergeseran persepsi risiko baik bagi negara-negara berkembang maupun negara-negara maju. Studi ini akan mensimulasikan pergeseran persepsi risiko di negara-negara berkembang dengan menggunakan model ekonomi keseimbangan umum antarwaktu yang disebut Model G-Cubed. Hasil simulasi dari model menunjukkan bahwa aliran keuangan internasional memiliki peran yang signifikan dalam menjelaskan efek tumpahan dari hilangnya kepercayaan di negara-negara berkembang. Dalam jangka pendek, ada penurunan konsumsi dan investasi swasta yang signifikan di negara-negara berkembang. Dalam jangka panjang, output dari negara-negara berkembang diperkirakan stabil di bawah baseline. Di sisi lain, di negara maju, ada peningkatan konsumsi dan investasi swasta yang signifikan dalam jangka pendek. Selain itu, diharapkan suku bunga yang lebih rendah merangsang investasi di masa depan di negara-negara maju.</em></p><p><strong><em>Kata Kunci</em></strong><em>: G-Cubed, negara emerging, simulasi, risiko, arus keuangan</em></p>

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Daniel Sakyi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana for the period 1980-2013. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach to cointegration and the error correction model were used for the estimation. Findings The results indicate that exchange rate volatility, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and public sector borrowing from commercial banks, increase interest rate spreads in Ghana in both the long and short run. Institutional quality reduces interest rate spreads in the long run while lending interest rate volatility and monetary policy rate reduce interest rate spreads in the short run. Research limitations/implications The depreciation of the Ghana cedi must be controlled since its volatility increases spreads. There is a need for fiscal discipline since fiscal deficits increase interest rate spreads. Government must reduce its domestic borrowing because the associated crowding-out effect increases interest rate spreads. The central bank must improve its monitoring and regulation of the financial sector in order to reduce spreads. Originality/value The main novelty of the paper (compared to other studies on Ghana) lies on the one hand; analysing macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads and, on the other hand, controlling for the impact of institutional quality on interest rate spreads in Ghana.

scholarly journals Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽  
Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Fahad Ali Khan ◽  
Muhammad Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on US Islamic and Conventional Equity

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-58
Author(s):  
Mazhar Hallak Kantakji Mazhar Hallak Kantakji
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the influence of economic fundamentals on both Islamic and conventional equity in the US stock market by applying various methods of time series techniques focusing on the period from January 1996 to September 2013. The empirical results show that the exogenous variables are industrial production (IP), interest rate (T3), and consumer production index (CPI); whereas Islamic stock index (IS), conventional stock index (CS), and money supply (M2) are endogenous variables. When IP, T3, or CPI receives a shock, it will deviate from the equilibrium and will transmit the shock to other variables whereas if IS, CS, or M2 undergoes a shock, the long-run combination will correct it through the short-run adjustment to the equilibrium. The empirical findings also reveal a higher impact of industrial production and lower impact of interest rate on Islamic equity, as compared to conventional equity. Our results are consistent with the theory that Islamic finance, due to its effective Sharīʿah screening process, is more prevalent in the real economic sector and less associated with interest-based activities.

DOES FISCAL DEFICIT CROWD OUT PRIVATE CORPORATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN INDIA?

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (05) ◽  
pp. 1201-1224 ◽  
Author(s):  
RANJAN KUMAR MOHANTY
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Corporate Sector ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Financing Pattern ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of fiscal deficit and its financing pattern on private corporate sector investment in India, for the period from 1970–1971 to 2012–2013. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, the study finds that fiscal deficit crowds out private investment both in the long run and in the short run. The results also show that internal (domestic) financing of fiscal deficit has significant negative impact on private investment but external (foreign) financing of fiscal deficit has insignificant effect. In the short run, availability of bank credit plays a more important role in investment decision making than the rate of interest in India. The study suggests that government should maintain the fiscal deficit within a sustainable level by reducing its unnecessary non-developmental expenditure, subsidies etc. The government should restructure its financing pattern of fiscal deficit since internal financing has a significant negative impact on private investment.

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Investment on Private Investment: Evidence from India

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 288-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradyumna Dash
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Base Line ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Executive Summary ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Executive Summary This paper estimates the impact of public investment on private investment in India during 1970-2013 using ARDL procedure developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) by incorporating endogenously determined structural break in the model. The base line result implies that a 1 per cent increase in public investment as a ratio to GDP leads to 0.81 per cent and 0.53 per cent decrease in private investment as a ratio to GDP in the long run (about 4 to 5 years) and short run (about 2 to 3 years), respectively, after controlling for economic conditions. To address the concern that the results may be driven by government consumption expenditure, fiscal deficit, or inadequate infrastructure, the analysis was repeated by estimating the investment function after including these variables and similar results were obtained. The investment regression was also estimated for a shorter sample period (1978–2013) to get the same result. It is observed that the crowding out effect of public investment on private investment has dampened during the post-liberalization period. The results also reveal that a “market friendly” incumbent and an increase in foreign direct investment dampen the magnitude of the crowding out effect of public investment. Formal tests were conducted to examine whether the crowding out effect was driven by political uncertainty and political business cycle channels but no evidence for the same is found. The results also reveal that public infrastructure (represented by kms of roads per capita) has a positive effect on private investment in the short run. This is similar to the findings by Blejer and Khan (1984) that while public infrastructure investment is complementary to private investment, other kinds of public investment lead to crowding out of private investment. This suggests that public investment should be more focused on goods and services which are enjoyed or consumed by many consumers simultaneously and non-excludable in nature with significant positive externalities. In this model, a single endogenously determined structural break was included and the possibility of multiple breaks was excluded. There is a scope to increase multiple structural breaks and re-investigate the impact of public investment on private investment in India in future studies.

Foreign Direct Investment and Investor Sentiment: A Causal Relationship

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-719
Author(s):  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Mamunur Rashid ◽  
Esther Castro
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Past studies investigated a number of fundamental variables influencing FDI in various countries. This study offers extensive evidence on the impact of investor sentiment on net FDI flows in Malaysia. Using a vector error correction framework, this study analyzed the net FDI flows in Malaysia for 56 quarterly observations between 1998 and 2011, and reported a strong positive connection between investor sentiment index and FDI flows in the presence of other macroeconomic variables in the long- and short-run. Other important factors deciding FDI in Malaysia are real GDP, interest rate and currency value. FDI exhibited a bi-directional Granger causality with investor sentiment and gross domestic product. FDI is also Granger caused by interest rate. Decomposing the sentiment index to two sub-indexes, we find that the attitude dimension of the index hold greater influence on FDI than the market trading dimensions although both are significant. The study concludes that expectation around financial market, expected economic condition of the country and the region (i. e. ASEAN), and interest rates are important determinants of FDI in Malaysia. It is one of the findings of this study that FDI cannot be attracted simply based on economic stability of the country; rather a conducive regional atmosphere is indeed necessary. Consequently, our findings suggest that rather than implementing policies to improve macroeconomic conditions, governments should attempt to improve the perception and outlook of Malaysia to foreign investors in order to increase FDI flows into the country. Investing in bilateral (and/or multilateral) relationships can be one of the steps to create a positive impression for the region to attract more foreign companies.

scholarly journals Democracy, Globalization and Private Investment in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Linda Akoto ◽  
Felicia Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
National Income ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run

The article examines the effects of democracy and globalization on private investment in Ghana for the period 1980–2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration and the error correction model (ECM). Two models are used. In Model 1, democracy is proxy by an index for institutional quality (Polity 2), while Model 2 uses an index for civil liberties as proxy for democracy. The results for Model 1 show globalization and public investment increase private investment, while exchange rate volatility and trade openness decrease private investment in both the long and short run. In addition, national income and interest rate reduce private investment in the short run. In the case of Model 2, credit to the private sector and public investment increase private investment, while exchange rate volatility and trade openness decrease private investment in both the long and short run. Finally, national income and interest rate reduce private investment in the short run. The findings and policy recommendations of the article provide vital information for policy implementation in Ghana.

HAS MONETARY POLICY CAUSED HOUSING PRICES TO RISE OR FALL IN CHINA?

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
XIAO-CUI YIN ◽  
CHI-WEI SU ◽  
RAN TAO
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines whether broader money supply (M2) and interest rate as two monetary policy tools may have differently affected housing prices in China. Empirical results show that there is a co-movement between housing prices and M2 in the short run and it becomes more pronounced after 2006 in the medium run. In addition, generally M2 positively affects housing prices. This supports the asset price channel which indicates that an easing monetary policy offers ample liquidity and results in raising the housing prices. The excess liquidity after 2008 spread to housing market, resulting in too much money chasing relatively few assets and triggering a surge in housing prices. On the other hand, we observe that co-movement between housing prices and interest rate is not very evident in most time. Moreover, we find that interest rate has a positive effect on housing prices which is not consistent with the user cost approach and indicates that a contracting monetary policy is not effective in curbing housing market. Not completely liberalized interest rate system and the high return on housing investments reduce the impact of interest rate on housing prices. These findings indicate that money supply is more effective than interest rate as channel to control the housing prices in China. The results are helpful for the scientific formulation of monetary policy for reasonable regulation of the market.

scholarly journals The Impact of key Macroeconomic factors on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: a VAR Co-integration Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 667-673
Author(s):  
Md. Arphan Ali ◽  
Md. Khaled Saifullah ◽  
Fatimah Binti Kari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of key macroeconomic factors on economic growth of Bangladesh from the period of 1988 to 2012.The key macroeconomic factors studied are market capitalization, foreign direct investment and real interest rate. This study also examines the long run and short run relationship between the economic growth and capital market, foreign direct investment, and real interest rate by using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR results suggest that the market capitalization, foreign direct investment and real interest rate have impact on economic growth in the long run, but in short run it does not have any predictable behavior. The variance decomposition results also conclude the same result as VAR model. All variables have the long run effects on economic growth but it does not have in short run, and the effects increases with time. Based on the finding, this study suggests that the government should come out with the appropriate macroeconomic plan and policy to draw more inward foreign direct investment, increase market capitalization and stabilize real interest rate in order to faster the economic growth in future. As finding of this study shows that these factors do not have significant impact on economic growth in Bangladesh in the short run

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