scholarly journals THE EFFECTS OF RUPIAH CURRENCY, WORLD OIL PRICES, AND WORLD GOLD PRICE ON COMPOSITED STOCK PRICE INDEX (IHSG) IN 2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-151
Author(s):  
Bima Prawirosaputro ◽  
Yudith Dyah Hapsari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
Auto Regressive

This study aims to determine and analyze the effects ofIndonesian Rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, and world gold priceson IDX Composite in 2016. This research utilizedGeneralized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method on 234 daily observations throughout the whole year. This study results demonstrated that the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate has a significant and negative impact, while the world gold and oil prices have a significant and positive impact on the IDX Composite in 2016. In addition to these results, the discovery and usage of GARCH method as the optimum econometric model found the variance of residuals of IDX Composite in 2016, which is also affected by the previous day residuals, but it is not affected by the variance of previous days residuals.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting the Composite Stock Price Index during Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis

JEJAK ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-344
Author(s):  
Ariodillah Hidayat ◽  
Liliana Liliana ◽  
Sri Andaiyani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Stock Price Index

This paper aims to analyze factors affecting the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (IDX) during the Pademi Corona Crisis. This study uses the multiple linear regression analysis technique where the variable number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the world, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Indonesia, the Rupiah exchange rate per 1 US dollar,  and the world crude oil price are used as independent variables (X) and the IHSG as the dependent variable (Y), the data used in this study are weekly time series data from the period December 2019 to September 2020. Based on the results of variable regression between the IHSG, Exchange Rates, Oil Prices, cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia and COVID-19 World, It is concluded that collectively the independent variables have a significant effect on the IHSG. Partially, Oil Prices, COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and COVID-19 cases in the world have a significant effect on the IHSG. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has no significant effect on the IHSG.

scholarly journals Pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah per dollar Amerika, harga minyak mentah dunia dan indeks harga saham gabungan terhadap harga emas di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Fadhel Kesarditama ◽  
Haryadi Haryadi ◽  
Yohanes Vyn Amzar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to analyze the trend of macroeconomic variables and gold prices in Indonesia and to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on gold prices in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach. The data used is secondary data from January 2014-December 2019. The analytical tools and techniques used are trend analysis with a linear trend approach and multiple linear regression models using the Ordinary Least Square method. The five research variables that were processed showed that there were differences in the direction of the data trend. Where the variables of Gold Price, Exchange Rate, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive trend, while the variables of Inflation and World Crude Oil Prices show a negative trend. Furthermore, the variables of Exchange Rate, world Crude Oil Price, and Composite Stock Price Index show a positive and significant influence on the Gold Price in Indonesia. While the inflation variable shows a negative and significant effect on the Gold Price in Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, foreign exchange,crude oil prices, idx composite and gold prices

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siska Wahyuni Sukamto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Stock Price Index

This studi was conducted to determine the effect macro economic variable of inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate againts the stock price indeks on indonesia stock exchange, and look for variables that effect most dominant among the three variables in the stock price index. Type of research is quantitative research, using multiple regression analysis, F test, t test and standardized coefficient as a tool of analysis in this study. Results of the study found that the variables inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate either simultaneously is significant effect on stock price index. Either partially the inflation variable has a significant effect on stock price index, while the variable interest rate have a significant negative effect on the stock price index, and the exchange rate has a significant effect on the stock price index, inflation variable are the most dominany effect on stock price index on Indonesia Stock Exchange

scholarly journals Application of ARIMA-GARCH Model for Prediction of Indonesian Crude Oil Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
Sukono Sukono ◽  
Emah Suryamah ◽  
Fujika Novinta S
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecast ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Auto Regressive

Crude oil is one of the most important energy commodities for various sectors. Changes in crude oil prices will have an impact on oil-related sectors, and even on the stock price index. Therefore, the prediction of crude oil prices needs to be done to avoid the future prices of these non-renewable natural resources to increase dramatically. In this paper, the prediction of crude oil prices is carried out using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The data used for forecasting are Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) crude oil data for the period January 2005 to November 2012. The results show that the data analyzed follows the ARIMA(1,2,1)-GARCH(0,3) model, and the crude oil price forecast for December 2012 is 105.5528 USD per barrel. The prediction results of crude oil prices are expected to be important information for all sectors related to crude oil.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK HARGA EMAS DUNIA, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA, KURS, INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN (IHK), DAN BI RATE TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (02) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umar Azyka Alfuadi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Principle ◽  
Islamic Economic

The paper attempts to analyze the impacts of gold price, oil price, exchange rate, consumer price index, and BI rate to Jakarta Islamic Index using VAR- VECM analysis. The result shows that in long term all variables have a significant impact to JII. Gold price has negative impact to JII 4,1% and stable after 12 months, oil price has positive impact 1% and stable after 21 months, exchange rate has positive impact 3,8% and stable after 17 months, consumer price index has positive impact 0,5% and stable after 21 months, and BI rate has negative impact 6,2% and stable after 15 months. BI rate also gives the biggest impact‟s contribution into JII. This result is very contradictory with Islamic economic principle “No-Riba Oriented”.

scholarly journals Impact of Infaltion, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate on the Private Sector Credit of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1133-1138
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umair Ali ◽  
Saliha Gul Abbasi ◽  
Mazhar Abbas ◽  
Ghulam Dastgeer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

The paper analyzed the long-term and short-term impact of interest rate, exchange rate and inflation on the private sector credit of Pakistan during the period from 1975 to 2018. To test the stationarity of data Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) Test was applied. While the main model to explore the long-term and short-term dependence was based on Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) Model. The results suggested no effect of exchange rate on private sector credit, while inflation has significant as well as positive impact on Private Sector Credit (PSC) in long as well as short run. Lastly, the most important dependence i.e. interest effect on PSC; depicted negative impact in both short and long term.

Pengaruh Covid-19 terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-323
Author(s):  
Nisa Alfira ◽  
Muhammad Iqbal Fasa ◽  
Suharto Suharto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
The World ◽  
Islamic Financial Institutions ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) and the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is descriptive qualitative by describing the existing phenomena. The results show that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic does not only affect public health, but also affects the Indonesian economy, especially in Islamic financial institutions in the Islamic capital market, namely the Composite Stock Price Index and the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate. The pandemic has also been proven to have put pressure on the world economy, including Indonesia.

scholarly journals Study of Effects of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk in the Capital Market of Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-28
Author(s):  
Hadi Panahi ◽  
Solmaz Daryani ◽  
Shahin Amiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Consumer Services ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Capital Market

Cash-flow risk is one of the main factors influencing in the capital market of Iran. In this regard, the study has examined the effect of Iran's asymmetric liquidity risk in the capital market. This study is based on econometric model of EGARCH from the family of heterogeneity of variance model after extracting the positive and negative shocks analyzes that leverage effect has different effects for a unit of positive shock and a single unit of negative shock, goods price index and consumer services, exchange rate and liquidity risk on dividends. As well as significant negative impact of liquidity risk, significant positive impact of exchange rate, consumer services and goods price index can be seen on the index of dividends.

scholarly journals EXPLORING IMPACT OF MACRO ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON GDP OF PAKISTAN

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidrat Jilani ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The Impact

Purpose-This research work explores the impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation, real exchange rate and interest rate on GDP of Pakistan in the light of 32 years data, for the period of 1980 to2013. Methodology/sample-Research was secondary data based, and multivariate regression analysis was used to analyze the data. Econometric model used for analysis consisted of GDP as dependent variable while the independent variables were interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. Data was taken for these variables from the website of State Bank of Pakistan and World Bank. Individual significance of the variables, overall significance and goodness of fit of the econometric model was analysed. Findings-The study found that there is significant impact of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate on GDP. As far as the signs of co-efficient are concerned, inflation and interest rate had negative relation with GDP while interest rate possessed positive relation with GDP. Practical implications-Based on results and its analysis it is recommended that Government adopted tight monetary policy to reduce inflation as the results indicate that inflation has significant but negative impact on GDP. In case of developing counties like Pakistan high value of real exchange rate should be maintained because results show that there is significant and positive impact of exchange rate with GDP. Ceiling of interest rate should be removed in order to boost the economy.

Structural shocks in monetary policy, exchange rates, and stock prices using SVAR in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Salehi ◽  
Mehdi Behname ◽  
Mohammad Sadegh Adibian
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real

Purpose This paper aims to examine the interrelationships of monetary policy's structural shocks, the real exchange rate and stock prices. Design/methodology/approach According to quarterly data, variables such as gross domestic product, consumer price index, the real exchange rate, stock price and monetary policy indices in the structural vector autoregressions model are estimated. These variables' volatility is attributed to other variables’ structural shocks separately, and analysis of variance tables for all variables is presented. Findings The results show that structural shock on the exchange rate does not affect the stock price, but the monetary policy's structural shock positively impacts the real exchange rate. Moreover, the real exchange rate and monetary policy's structural shocks have a negative impact on the stock price index. However, no significant effect is found pertain to the real exchange rate structural shock, statistically. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study model is relatively novel in developing countries, and the study sought strength to develop knowledge on the subject of the study.

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