scholarly journals Modeling the Number of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in Puerto Rico: One-year Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suarez EL ◽  
◽  
Reyes JC ◽  
Perez CM ◽  
Mattei H ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Short Term ◽  
R Software ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
One Year ◽  
Age And Sex

Aims: To describe and project the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths reported in Puerto Rico, according to age and sex. Methods: We used surveillance data from March 8, 2020 to March 13, 2021 to describe and predict, by age and sex, the number of cases and deaths in Puerto Rico using Generalized Additive Models. The statistical modeling was performed in R software using the mgcv package. Results: The analytic sample consisted of 95,208 confirmed cases and 2,080 deaths reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health until the second week of March 2021. The risk of COVID-19 infection was highest among adults aged 20-59 years, as compared with those younger than 20 years (RR20-39 vs. <20: 2.35 [95% CI: 1.80-3.06] and (RR20-59 vs. <20: 2.30 [95% CI: 1.76-3.00]). However, the pattern in the risk of death showed an inverse relationship: the highest risk of death occurred in adults 60 years and over as compared with those younger than 60 years (RR≥80 vs. <60: 22.4 [95% CI: 18.9-26.5] and (RR60-79 vs. <60: 6.7 [95% CI: 5.6-7.9]). Although there were no significant differences in the risk of infection (p>0.1) by sex, males had a 70% (95% CI: 50-100%) greater risk of death than their female counterparts. The projected weekly number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 showed a downward trend; we expected approximately 510 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the week ending March 27, 2021. Similarly, the projected weekly number of COVID-19 deaths showed a downward trend. Conclusion: Future studies are needed to understand age and sex differences in COVID-19 infections and deaths. Increments in the number of COVID-19 cases in the short term are of great concern to justify more substantial preventive restrictions.

3325Incidence, outcomes and microbiology in patients with infective endocarditis

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Shah ◽  
D McAllister ◽  
F Astengo ◽  
J Perez ◽  
K K Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Linkage Study ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Using Data ◽  
One Year ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Introduction Despite recent improvements in management, infective endocarditis remains associated with high morbidity and mortality. Over the last few decades, several factors have impacted on both the incidence and outcomes following infective endocarditis. Purpose Using a national linkage approach, we describe the changing age- and sex-stratified incidence and outcomes of infective endocarditis in Scotland over the last 25 years. Methods We conducted a consecutive retrospective individual patient linkage study across multiple national databases. Using data extracted from the Scottish hospital discharge dataset held by the Information Services Division of NHS National Services Scotland, we extracted episodes for all patients aged 20 years or older who were admitted with infective endocarditis between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2014 in Scotland, UK. Patient episodes with infective endocarditis were linked to national prescribing and microbiology databases. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality following the index presentation. Generalised additive models were constructed to estimate the crude and age- and sex-stratified incidence rates (using a poison distribution) as well as trends in mortality (using a binomial distribution) adjusted for age, sex and comorbidity. Results Across 12,446 individual patients, there were a total of 12,667 hospitalisations (mean age 68±17 years, 55% females) with infective endocarditis using a 5-year look back period. The estimated crude rate of hospitalisation increased from 7.38 per 100,000 (95% CI 6.58 to 8.28) in 1990 to 15.09 per 100,000 (95% CI 13.90 to 16.39) in 2014 (p<0.001). Over the period of the study, 31% (3,877/12,667) of people admitted to hospital with infective endocarditis died within one year of admission. Case fatality fell markedly in both men and women from 1990 to 2014 (Figure). Microbiology was status was available for 34% of all hospitalisations with staphylococcus cultures associated with worse outcomes. Conclusions Despite the crude incidence of infective endocarditis doubling over the last 25 years and case fatality remaining high, the risk of death has markedly fallen over the last two decades. Staphylococcus cultures remain an independent marker of poor prognosis in this cohort. Acknowledgement/Funding British Heart Foundation

scholarly journals Growth overshoot and seasonal size changes in the skulls of two weasel species

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 160947 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott LaPoint ◽  
Lara Keicher ◽  
Martin Wikelski ◽  
Karol Zub ◽  
Dina K. N. Dechmann
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Energy Requirements ◽  
Ontogenetic Changes ◽  
Skull Length ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Absolute Growth ◽  
Age And Sex ◽  
Dehnel’S Phenomenon

Ontogenetic changes in mammalian skulls are complex. For a very few species (i.e. some Sorex shrews), these also include seasonally driven, bidirectional size changes within individuals, presumably to reduce energy requirements during low resource availabilities. These patterns are poorly understood, but are likely most pronounced in high-metabolic species with limited means for energy conservation. We used generalized additive models to quantify the effect of location, Julian day, age and sex on the length and depth of 512 and 847 skulls of stoat ( Mustela erminea ) and weasel ( M. nivalis ) specimens collected throughout the northern hemisphere. Skull length of both species varies between sexes and geographically, with stoat skull length positively correlated with latitude. Both species demonstrate seasonal and ontogenetic patterns, including a rare, absolute growth overshoot in juvenile braincase depth. Standardized braincase depths of both species peak in their first summer, then decrease in their first winter, followed by a remarkable regrowth that peaks again during their second summer. This seasonal pattern varies in magnitude and timing between geographical regions and the sexes, matching predictions of Dehnel's phenomenon. This suggests implications for the evolution of over-wintering strategies in mammals, justifying further research on their mechanisms and value, with implications for applied osteology research.

scholarly journals Which symptoms pose the highest risk in patients calling for an ambulance? A population-based cohort study from Denmark

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stine Ibsen ◽  
Tim Alex Lindskou ◽  
Christian H. Nickel ◽  
Torben Kløjgård ◽  
Erika Frischknecht Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Emergency Medical Service ◽  
Medical Service ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Mechanism Of Injury ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Emergency medical service patients are a vulnerable population and the risk of mortality is considerable. In Denmark, healthcare professionals receive 112-emergency calls and assess the main reason for calling. The main aim was to investigate which of these reasons, i.e. which symptoms or mechanism of injury, contributed to short-term risk of death. Secondary aim was to study 1–30 day-mortality for each symptom/ injury. Methods Historic population-based cohort study of emergency medical service patients calling 112 in the North Denmark Region between 01.01.2016–31.12.2018. We defined 1-day mortality as death on the same or the following day. The frequency of each symptom and cumulative number of deaths on day 1 and 30 together with 1- and 30-day mortality for each symptom/mechanism of injury is presented in proportions. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate incident rates (IR) of mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CI), crude and age and sex adjusted, mortality rates on day 1 per 100,000 person-year in the population. Results The five most frequent reasons for calling 112 were “chest pain” (15.9%), “unclear problem” (11.9%), “accidents” (11.2%), “possible stroke” (10.9%), and “breathing difficulties” (8.3%). Four of these contributed to the highest numbers of deaths: “breathing difficulties” (17.2%), “unclear problem” (13.2%), “possible stroke” (8.7%), and “chest pain” (4.7%), all exceeded by “unconscious adult – possible cardiac arrest” (25.3%). Age and sex adjusted IR of mortality per 100,000 person-year was 3.65 (CI 3.01–4.44) for “unconscious adult – possible cardiac arrest” followed by “breathing difficulties” (0.45, CI 0.37–0.54), “unclear problem”(0.30, CI 0.11–0.17), “possible stroke”(0.13, CI 0.11–0.17) and “chest pain”(0.07, CI 0.05–0.09). Conclusion In terms of risk of death on the same day and the day after the 112-call, “unconscious adult/possible cardiac arrest” was the most deadly symptom, about eight times more deadly than “breathing difficulties”, 12 times more deadly than “unclear problem”, 28 times more deadly than “possible stroke”, and 52 times more deadly than “chest pain”. “Breathing difficulties” and “unclear problem” as presented when calling 112 are among the top three contributing to short term deaths when calling 112, exceeding both stroke symptoms and chest pain.

Generalized additive models: An efficient method for short-term energy prediction in office buildings

Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 118834
Author(s):  
Thulasi Ram Khamma ◽  
Yuming Zhang ◽  
Stéphane Guerrier ◽  
Mohamed Boubekri
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Method ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Office Buildings ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Energy Prediction ◽  
Term Energy

scholarly journals Sepsis-related hospital admissions and ambient air pollution: a time series analysis in 6 Chinese cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Lian Yang ◽  
Jiushun Zhou ◽  
Jia Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Hospital Stays ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Background Some prevalent but rarely studied causes of hospital admissions, such as sepsis is still unknown whether affected by air pollution. Methods We used time-series regression within generalized additive models to estimate the effect of air pollutant level on the sepsis-related hospital admissions, for the years 2017–18, using data from six cities in Sichuan, China. Potential effect modifications by age and sex were also explored. The effects of air pollutant on hospital stays for sepsis were also quantified. Results Positive associations between short-term exposure to NO2 and O3 and risk of sepsis-related hospital admissions and stays were found. Each 10 μg/m3 increase in short-term NO2 at lag 03 and O3 at lag 4 was associated with an increase of 2.76% (95% CI: 0.67, 4.84%) and 0.64% (95% CI: 0.14, 1.14%) hospital admissions, respectively. An increase of 0.72% (95% CI: 0.05, 1.40%) hospital stay was associated with 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 concentration at lag 4. Besides, the adverse effect of exposure to NO2 was more significant in males and population aged less than 14 years; while more significant in females and population aged 14 ~ 65 and over 65 years for exposure to O3. These associations remained stable after the adjustment of other air pollutants.8. Conclusion Exposure to ambient NO2 and O3 may cause substantial sepsis hospitalizations, and hospital stays in Sichuan, China. These associations were different in subgroup by age and sex.

Longitudinal Course of Short-Term Variation and Doppler Parameters in Early Onset Growth Restricted Fetuses

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (06) ◽  
pp. e23-e32
Author(s):  
Friederike Baier ◽  
Leonie Weinhold ◽  
Florian M. Stumpfe ◽  
Sven Kehl ◽  
Jutta Pretscher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Fetal Heart Rate ◽  
Fetal Heart ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
Doppler Indices

Abstract Purpose To evaluate the longitudinal pattern of fetal heart rate short term variation (STV) and Doppler indices and their correlation to each other in severe growth restricted (IUGR) fetuses. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, pregnancies with a birth weight below the 10th percentile, born between 24 and 34 gestational weeks with serial Doppler measurements in combination with a computerized CTG (cCTG) with calculated STV were included. Longitudinal changes of both Doppler indices and STV values were evaluated with generalized additive models, adjusted for gestational age and the individual. For all measurements the frequency of abnormal values with regard to the time interval before delivery and Pearson correlations between Doppler indices and STV values were calculated. Results 41 fetuses with a total of 1413 observations were included. Over the course of the whole study period, regression analyses showed no significant change of STV values (p = 0.38). Only on the day of delivery, a prominent decrease was observed (mean STV d28-22: 7.97 vs. mean STV on day 0: 6.8). Doppler indices of UA and MCA showed a continuous, significant deterioration starting about three weeks prior to delivery (p = 0.007; UA and p < 0.001, MCA). Correlation between any Doppler index and STV values was poor. Conclusion Fetal heart rate STV does not deteriorate continuously. Therefore, cCTG monitoring should be performed at least daily in these high-risk fetuses. Doppler indices of umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery (MCA), however, showed continuous deterioration starting about 3 weeks prior to delivery.

scholarly journals Short-term Effects of Multiple Ozone Metrics on Outpatient Visits For Urticaria in Lanzhou

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Yuan He ◽  
chunrui Shi
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ambient Ozone ◽  
Outpatient Visits ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Short Term Effects

Abstract Background Although mounting evidence suggests that short-term exposure to ozone increases the risk of respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and mortality, there are few studies comparing the effects of ozone in relation to urticaria in China.Objective To evaluate the risks for urticaria exacerbations related to ambient ozone measured as 1-h maximum (O3-1 h max), maximum 8-h (O3-8 h max) and 24-h average (O3-24 h avg) concentrations. Methods We calculated three metrics of ozone, 1-h maximum, maximum 8-h and 24-h average based on the hourly data. Generalized additive models with poisson regression incorporating natural spline functions were used to investigate short-term effects on urticaria associated with ambient ozone pollution in Lanzhou, China, using 5 years of daily data (2013-2017). We also examined the association by sex, age and season.Results In all-year analyses, a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average, O3-1 h max, O3-8 h max and O3-24 h avg at lag2 corresponded to an increase of 0.58%(95%CI：0.26%~0.90%), 0.82% (95%CI：0.47%~1.16%) and 2.17% (95%CI：1.17%~2.79%), respectively. The elderly populations and females were susceptible to O3, and the associations between ozone and urticaria appeared to be more evident during warm season than in the cold season.Conclusion In conclusion, these results indicated that ozone, as a widespread pollutant, affects outpatient visits for urticaria in Lanzhou.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document