scholarly journals The Climate Conflict Trap: Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Garfinkel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Security ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

As recently as 2019, international security officials reported that international state sponsors of terrorism, such as ISIL, were moving into Sub-Saharan Africa. The causal links between climate change and conflict, especially in an understudied and misunderstood region such as Sub-Saharan Africa, are often complicated and ill-defined. In reality, climate change does not unilaterally or unconditionally strengthen terrorist organizations and, by extension, civil conflict. The circumstances of climate change impact the trajectory of violent non-state armed groups in Sub-Saharan Africa through three primary mechanisms that intersect and interact with one another: natural resource instability, colonialism, and the intensity of intra-state tensions throughout a particular region. Through these three primary lenses, it is evident that, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the effects of climate change exacerbate conditions that, in turn, provide a unique, fertile environment for violent non-state armed groups to develop and thrive.

Subnational violent conflict forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa, 2015–65, using climate-sensitive models

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank DW Witmer ◽  
Andrew M Linke ◽  
John O’Loughlin ◽  
Andrew Gettelman ◽  
Arlene Laing
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Sub Saharan

How will local violent conflict patterns in sub-Saharan Africa evolve until the middle of the 21st century? Africa is recognized as a particularly vulnerable continent to environmental and climate change since a large portion of its population is poor and reliant on rain-fed agriculture. We use a climate-sensitive approach to model sub-Saharan African violence in the past (geolocated to the nearest settlements) and then forecast future violence using sociopolitical factors such as population size and political rights (governance), coupled with temperature anomalies. Our baseline model is calibrated using 1° gridded monthly data from 1980 to 2012 at a finer spatio-temporal resolution than existing conflict forecasts. We present multiple forecasts of violence under alternative climate change scenarios (optimistic and current global trajectories), of political rights scenarios (improvement and decline), and population projections (low and high fertility). We evaluate alternate shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) by plotting violence forecasts over time and by detailed mapping of recent and future levels of violence by decade. The forecasts indicate that a growing population and rising temperatures will lead to higher levels of violence in sub-Saharan Africa if political rights do not improve. If political rights continue to improve at the same rate as observed over the last three decades, there is reason for optimism that overall levels of violence will hold steady or even decline in Africa, in spite of projected population increases and rising temperatures.

Trends and triggers: Climate, climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

2007 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 695-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cullen S. Hendrix ◽  
Sarah M. Glaser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

Climate change and human heat stress exposure in sub-Saharan Africa.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (049) ◽  
Author(s):  
Desalegn Yayeh Ayal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Agricultural Food

Abstract The sub-Saharan Africa region has been affected by multifaceted interrelated challenges including climate change risks, environmental degradation, political crises, demographic, and food security. The region is geographically exposed to and heavily depends on heat stress-sensitive livelihood and economy. Unlike drought, flood, and erratic rainfall, the situation and impact of heat stress are not well documented. This paper summarized the impact of heat stress on various sectors of the Sahel region. The result revealed that exposure to heat stress contributed to water, agricultural, food security, health, and economic adverse impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. The study also shows in sub- Saharan Africa especially in semiarid and arid areas the future impact of heat stress in various sectors is expected to be more severe. The changes and impacts of heat stress are not uniform across the region. For instance, East Africa is at higher risk of acquiring concurrent health impacts. West Africa is projected to experience severe impacts on food production. South Africa observes the strongest decrease in precipitation with concurrent risks of drought. Thus, understanding the effect of heat stress on humans and various heat-sensitive sectors should be the focus of researchers. However, given the degree of uncertainty of the models' results and effect of heat stress in the region, it is important to develop adaptive capacities at different ecological settings that enable the region population to adapt to risk factors related to climate change and heat stress.

AFRICAP - The impact of climate change on agriculture in Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Chapman ◽  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Edward Pope ◽  
Susannah Sallu ◽  
Catherine Bradshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Comprehensive Treatment ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitability Analysis ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most food insecure regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to climate change. We use a comprehensive set of bias-corrected global (CMIP5) and regional (CORDEX-Africa) models and a new convection-permitting pan-Africa simulation (and its parameterized counterpart) to examine changes in rainfall and temperature and the impact on agricultural suitability of maize, cassava and soy in sub-Saharan Africa by 2100 (RCP8.5). This is the first time a convection-permitting projection has been used to examine agricultural suitability in Africa. Increasing temperatures and declining rainfall led to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa becoming unsuitable for multiple staple crops, which may necessitate a transition to more heat and drought resistant crops to ensure food and nutrition security. Soy was resilient to temperature increases, however maize and cassava were not, leading to declines in crop suitability. Inclusion of sensitivity to extreme temperatures led to larger declines in maize suitability than when this was excluded. The variation in rainfall projections within the multi-model ensemble was examined in detail for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and South Africa. In each country the range of projections included wetting and drying, but the majority of models projected rainfall declines, except in Tanzania, leading to declines in crop suitability. Overall, the CORDEX and CMIP5 models gave similar results for agricultural suitability. Explicit-convection led to more temperature extremes, but had little systematic impact on temperature and rainfall, and the resulting suitability analysis. Global model uncertainty, rather than convection parameterizations, still makes up the largest part of the uncertainty in future climate. Explicit-convection may have more impact if suitability included a more comprehensive treatment of extremes. This work highlights the key uncertainty from global climate projections for crop suitability projections, and the need for improved information on sensitivities of African crops to extremes, in order to give better predictions and make better use of the new generation of explicit-convection models.</p>

Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kindie Tesfaye ◽  
Sika Gbegbelegbe ◽  
Jill E Cairns ◽  
Bekele Shiferaw ◽  
Boddupalli M Prasanna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Maize Varieties ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Bioeconomic Models

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach – Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings – Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value – The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.

scholarly journals Climate Change and the Future Heat Stress Challenges among Smallholder Farmers in East Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 753
Author(s):  
Genesis Tambang Yengoh ◽  
Jonas Ardö
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa remains dependent on high inputs of human labor, a situation associated with direct exposure to daylight heat during critical periods of the agricultural calendar. We ask the question: how is the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) going to be distributed in the future, and how will this affect the ability of smallholder farmers to perform agricultural activities? Data from general circulation models are used to estimate the distribution of WBGT in 2000, 2050 and 2100, and for high activity periods in the agricultural calendar. The distribution of WBGT is divided into recommended maximum WBGT exposure levels (°C) at different work intensities, and rest/work ratios for an average acclimatized worker wearing light clothing (ISO, 18). High WBGTs are observed during the two periods of the East African. In February to March, eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania witness high WBGT values—some necessitating up to 75% rest/hour work intensities in 2050 and 2100. In August to September, eastern and northern Kenya and north and central Uganda are vulnerable to high WBGT values. Designing policies to address this key challenge is a critical element in adaptation methods to address the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (Prunus africana) under Climate Change in Tanzania

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 988
Author(s):  
Richard A. Giliba ◽  
Genesis Tambang Yengoh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Habitat Distribution ◽  
Prunus Africana ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Prunus africana is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Predicting suitable habitats for P. africana under changing climate is essential for conservation monitoring and planning. This study intends to predict the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats for the vulnerable P. africana in Tanzania. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict future habitat distribution based on the representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century 2050 and late-century 2070. Species occurrence records and environmental variables were used as a dependent variable and predictor variables respectively. The model performance was excellent with the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of 0.96 and 0.85 respectively. The mean annual temperature (51.7%) and terrain ruggedness. index (31.6%) are the most important variables in predicting the current and future habitat distribution for P. africana. Our results show a decrease in suitable habitats for P. africana under all future representative concentration pathways scenario when compared with current distributions. These results have policy implications for over 22 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are facing problems associated with the sustainability of this species. Institutional, policy, and conservation management approaches are proposed to support sustainable practices in favor of P. africana.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of funding modalities: a mixed methods systematic review protocol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biljana Macura ◽  
◽  
Nella Canales ◽  
Inès Bakhtaoui ◽  
Richard Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

International climate finance plays a key role in enabling the implementation of adaptation measures. However, while there is a common metric for gauging the effectiveness of finance for mitigation – greenhouse gas emission reduction per unit of funding – no corresponding metric exists for adaptation. Instead, assessments of what works best in adaptation finance focus either on procedural aspects of funding modalities, such as equity in the allocation of funding, or on the extent to which specific adaptation activities produce the desired results. This mixed methods systematic review aims to assess the effectiveness of adaptation finance and bridge the gap between those two approaches. It involves a transparent and comprehensive synthesis of the academic and grey literature on how different characteristics of adaptation projects in sub-Saharan Africa – and finance for those projects – affect adaptation outcomes, particularly in terms of risk and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Finalised adaptation projects funded by a set of the multilateral climate funds and two bilateral donors (United Kingdom and Sweden) are the focus of this review. The findings can help inform the future design and implementation of adaptation activities as well as funding decisions.

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