AFRICAP - The impact of climate change on agriculture in Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Chapman ◽  
Cathryn Birch ◽  
Edward Pope ◽  
Susannah Sallu ◽  
Catherine Bradshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Comprehensive Treatment ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitability Analysis ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

<p>Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most food insecure regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to climate change. We use a comprehensive set of bias-corrected global (CMIP5) and regional (CORDEX-Africa) models and a new convection-permitting pan-Africa simulation (and its parameterized counterpart) to examine changes in rainfall and temperature and the impact on agricultural suitability of maize, cassava and soy in sub-Saharan Africa by 2100 (RCP8.5). This is the first time a convection-permitting projection has been used to examine agricultural suitability in Africa. Increasing temperatures and declining rainfall led to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa becoming unsuitable for multiple staple crops, which may necessitate a transition to more heat and drought resistant crops to ensure food and nutrition security. Soy was resilient to temperature increases, however maize and cassava were not, leading to declines in crop suitability. Inclusion of sensitivity to extreme temperatures led to larger declines in maize suitability than when this was excluded. The variation in rainfall projections within the multi-model ensemble was examined in detail for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and South Africa. In each country the range of projections included wetting and drying, but the majority of models projected rainfall declines, except in Tanzania, leading to declines in crop suitability. Overall, the CORDEX and CMIP5 models gave similar results for agricultural suitability. Explicit-convection led to more temperature extremes, but had little systematic impact on temperature and rainfall, and the resulting suitability analysis. Global model uncertainty, rather than convection parameterizations, still makes up the largest part of the uncertainty in future climate. Explicit-convection may have more impact if suitability included a more comprehensive treatment of extremes. This work highlights the key uncertainty from global climate projections for crop suitability projections, and the need for improved information on sensitivities of African crops to extremes, in order to give better predictions and make better use of the new generation of explicit-convection models.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on crop suitability in sub-Saharan Africa in parameterized and convection-permitting regional climate models

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 094086
Author(s):  
Sarah Chapman ◽  
Cathryn E Birch ◽  
Edward Pope ◽  
Susannah Sallu ◽  
Catherine Bradshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Sub Saharan

scholarly journals Helminths in South Africa: management of cestode and trematode infections in humans

2020 ◽  
pp. 33-38
Author(s):  
RL van Zyl
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Signs And Symptoms ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
The South ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Sub-Saharan Africa has to contend with many challenges, including inadequate healthcare systems, lack of optimal sanitation, and clean water and food. All of these contribute to malnutrition and an increased risk of infections, including parasitism by cestodes and trematodes. Schistosomiasis is a category-2 notifiable trematode (fluke) infection, whereas cestode (tapeworm) infections need not be reported to the South African Department of Health. Epidemiological data for helminthiasis in South Africa is scant, with a paucity of publications on the South African scenario. As such, a complete picture of the impact of helminth infections on all age groups in South Africa does not exist. These parasitic diseases not only have an impact on socio economic development of a country, community and families, but also contribute to the chronic and detrimental effects on the health and nutritional status of the host, including the impaired development of children. In order to break the cycle of poverty and disease, a strong education drive is required in schools and communities to provide effective strategies and guidelines on preventative measures that result in avoidance of exposure to infective stages of Schistosoma and Taenia tapeworms. Also, it is imperative that healthcare professionals are able to recognise the signs and symptoms, so that interventions can be promptly initiated. The current anthelmintic treatments available in South Africa are effective against cestodes and trematodes, with no drug resistance having being reported. The need for compliancy when taking anthelmintic drugs must be emphasised.

scholarly journals Climate change and agriculture in Burkina Faso

2021 ◽  
pp. 22-47
Author(s):  
Hamid El Bilali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Conservation Agriculture ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
And Migration

The impacts of climate change (CC) are expected to be higher in developing countries (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa). However, these impacts will depend on agriculture development and resilience. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted relationships between CC and agriculture in Burkina Faso (BF). A search performed in March 2020 on the Web of Science yielded 1,820 documents and 217 of them were included in the systematic review. The paper provides an overview on both bibliometrics (e.g. journals, authors, institutions) and topics addressed in the literature viz. agriculture subsectors, climate trends in BF, agriculture and CC mitigation (e.g. agriculture-related emissions, soil carbon sequestration), impacts of CC on agriculture (e.g. natural resources, crop suitability, yields, food security) as well as adaptation strategies. BF is experiencing CC as evidenced by warming and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The literature focuses on crops, while animal husbandry and, especially, fisheries are often overlooked. Moreover, most of the documents deal with CC adaptation by the Burkinabe farmers, pastoralists and rural populations. Analysed adaptation options include conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, crop diversification, intensification, livelihoods diversification and migration. However, the focus is mainly on agricultural and individual responses, while livelihoods strategies such as diversification and migration are less frequently addressed. Further research is needed on the dual relation between agriculture and CC to contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Research results are crucial to inform policies aimed at CC mitigation and/or adaptation in rural BF.

scholarly journals The Climate Conflict Trap: Examining the Impact of Climate Change on Violent Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Garfinkel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Security ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

As recently as 2019, international security officials reported that international state sponsors of terrorism, such as ISIL, were moving into Sub-Saharan Africa. The causal links between climate change and conflict, especially in an understudied and misunderstood region such as Sub-Saharan Africa, are often complicated and ill-defined. In reality, climate change does not unilaterally or unconditionally strengthen terrorist organizations and, by extension, civil conflict. The circumstances of climate change impact the trajectory of violent non-state armed groups in Sub-Saharan Africa through three primary mechanisms that intersect and interact with one another: natural resource instability, colonialism, and the intensity of intra-state tensions throughout a particular region. Through these three primary lenses, it is evident that, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the effects of climate change exacerbate conditions that, in turn, provide a unique, fertile environment for violent non-state armed groups to develop and thrive.

Climate change and human heat stress exposure in sub-Saharan Africa.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (049) ◽  
Author(s):  
Desalegn Yayeh Ayal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Agricultural Food

Abstract The sub-Saharan Africa region has been affected by multifaceted interrelated challenges including climate change risks, environmental degradation, political crises, demographic, and food security. The region is geographically exposed to and heavily depends on heat stress-sensitive livelihood and economy. Unlike drought, flood, and erratic rainfall, the situation and impact of heat stress are not well documented. This paper summarized the impact of heat stress on various sectors of the Sahel region. The result revealed that exposure to heat stress contributed to water, agricultural, food security, health, and economic adverse impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. The study also shows in sub- Saharan Africa especially in semiarid and arid areas the future impact of heat stress in various sectors is expected to be more severe. The changes and impacts of heat stress are not uniform across the region. For instance, East Africa is at higher risk of acquiring concurrent health impacts. West Africa is projected to experience severe impacts on food production. South Africa observes the strongest decrease in precipitation with concurrent risks of drought. Thus, understanding the effect of heat stress on humans and various heat-sensitive sectors should be the focus of researchers. However, given the degree of uncertainty of the models' results and effect of heat stress in the region, it is important to develop adaptive capacities at different ecological settings that enable the region population to adapt to risk factors related to climate change and heat stress.

IMPACT OF ORGANISATIONAL CULTURE ON INTERNAL KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY OF THE AFRICA INSTITUTE OF SOUTH AFRICA

Mousaion ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Shingi Muzondo ◽  
Ezra Ondari-Ekemwa
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Knowledge Production ◽  
Organisational Culture ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Think Tank ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Knowledge

This article reports on a study that investigated the impact of organisational culture on internal knowledge production and assessed the challenges of producing knowledge at the Africa Institute of South Africa (AISA), which is seen as a model knowledge producing think tank in sub-Saharan Africa. The broad objectives of the study were: identifying AISA’s achievements in knowledge production; finding out the challenges AISA confronts in producing knowledge; examining how AISA’s organisational culture impacts on internal knowledge production; and suggesting ways in which knowledge production at AISA and other think tanks may be improved. A case study was conducted and self-administered questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, document analysis, and observation were used to collect data. The findings showed that AISA’s knowledge production efforts are confronted by several challenges, including: organisational culture and employees’ negative attitudes towards sharing knowledge freely, and employees encountering difficulties in finding the information and knowledge they need. If these challenges could be identified and clearly confined, it is argued that AISA would be in a better position to effectively produce and utilise knowledge, enabling it to achieve its objectives more efficiently. It is recommended that AISA acquire knowledge from external sources; produce knowledge internally which it uses and is used by its clientele; and establish itself as a knowledge-based organisation by creating a knowledge friendly culture as a framework for addressing the issue of organisational culture. The study results will hopefully lay a foundation for understanding ways of improving knowledge production at AISA and thus influence positive public policy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kindie Tesfaye ◽  
Sika Gbegbelegbe ◽  
Jill E Cairns ◽  
Bekele Shiferaw ◽  
Boddupalli M Prasanna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Maize Varieties ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Bioeconomic Models

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach – Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings – Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value – The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.

scholarly journals Climate Change and the Future Heat Stress Challenges among Smallholder Farmers in East Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 753
Author(s):  
Genesis Tambang Yengoh ◽  
Jonas Ardö
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Critical Periods ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact

Agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa remains dependent on high inputs of human labor, a situation associated with direct exposure to daylight heat during critical periods of the agricultural calendar. We ask the question: how is the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) going to be distributed in the future, and how will this affect the ability of smallholder farmers to perform agricultural activities? Data from general circulation models are used to estimate the distribution of WBGT in 2000, 2050 and 2100, and for high activity periods in the agricultural calendar. The distribution of WBGT is divided into recommended maximum WBGT exposure levels (°C) at different work intensities, and rest/work ratios for an average acclimatized worker wearing light clothing (ISO, 18). High WBGTs are observed during the two periods of the East African. In February to March, eastern and coastal regions of Kenya and Tanzania witness high WBGT values—some necessitating up to 75% rest/hour work intensities in 2050 and 2100. In August to September, eastern and northern Kenya and north and central Uganda are vulnerable to high WBGT values. Designing policies to address this key challenge is a critical element in adaptation methods to address the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Suitable Habitats of the African Cherry (Prunus africana) under Climate Change in Tanzania

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 988
Author(s):  
Richard A. Giliba ◽  
Genesis Tambang Yengoh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Habitat Distribution ◽  
Prunus Africana ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Prunus africana is a fast-growing, evergreen canopy tree with several medicinal, household, and agroforestry uses, as well as ecological value for over 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This species is under immense pressure from human activity, compounding its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Predicting suitable habitats for P. africana under changing climate is essential for conservation monitoring and planning. This study intends to predict the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats for the vulnerable P. africana in Tanzania. We used maximum entropy modeling to predict future habitat distribution based on the representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century 2050 and late-century 2070. Species occurrence records and environmental variables were used as a dependent variable and predictor variables respectively. The model performance was excellent with the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values of 0.96 and 0.85 respectively. The mean annual temperature (51.7%) and terrain ruggedness. index (31.6%) are the most important variables in predicting the current and future habitat distribution for P. africana. Our results show a decrease in suitable habitats for P. africana under all future representative concentration pathways scenario when compared with current distributions. These results have policy implications for over 22 countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are facing problems associated with the sustainability of this species. Institutional, policy, and conservation management approaches are proposed to support sustainable practices in favor of P. africana.

scholarly journals Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ziegler ◽  
Margit H. Simon ◽  
Ian R. Hall ◽  
Stephen Barker ◽  
Chris Stringer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Middle Stone Age ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Stone Age ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

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