scholarly journals ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF OILSEEDS AND GRAIN CROPS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Tsvil ◽  
Maria Kobeleva ◽  
Anastasia Ponomareva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Multiplicative Model ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article presents econometric models of time series presented on the basis of quarterly data on the export volumes of oilseeds and cereals of the Russian Federation in the period from 01.01.2017 to 31.09. 2021. According to the obtained multiplicative model, the forecast of export volumes for 12 commodity groups for the 4th quarter of 2021 is presented

scholarly journals ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF VOLUMES OF IMPORT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Мария Цвиль ◽  
Mariya Tsvil ◽  
Алла Поливанова ◽  
Alla Polivanova ◽  
Ксения Полянина ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Multiplicative Model ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
The Republic

The article obtained econometric models of time series in terms of imports of the Republic of Belarus according to quarterly data in the period from 2013 to 2018. Exponential smoothing model and multiplicative model are constructed. Also, a forecast was made of import volumes in terms of value for the 4th quarter of 2018.

scholarly journals ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF MUTUAL TRADE OF THE EAEU MEMBER STATES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Tsvil ◽  
Ella Guleva ◽  
Margarita Zubkova
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Multiplicative Model ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Member States ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Mutual Trade

The article provides econometric time series models for the volumes of mutual trade of the EAEU member states based on quarterly data from the 1st quarter of 2017 to the 3rd quarter of 2021. An exponential smoothing model and a multiplicative model are built. Also, a forecast was made for the volume of mutual trade in the IV quarter of 2021

scholarly journals CUSTOMS PAYMENTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE CUSTOMS BODIES ACTIVITY AND THEIR CURRENT DYNAMICS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Tsvil ◽  
Daniil Krasyukov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Given

The given article presents an econometric analysis of the volume of enumerations of customs payments into the federal budget of the Russian Federation during export and import. On the basis of the given data for 2012-2020, econometric models have been constructed and the volumes of the customs payments in both directions of movement for 2021 have been predicted

scholarly journals FORECASTING THE VOLUMES OF IMPORT OF LIVE ANIMALS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Tsvil ◽  
Victoria Plotnikova ◽  
Elena Stadnikova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
The Russian Federation

This article provides an econometric analysis of the volume of imports of live animals in the Russian Federation according to the data of 01.01.2018-30.09.2021. by quarters. Based on the presented quarterly data, an econometric model was developed and a forecast for the volume of imports of live animals in the 4th quarter of 2021 was calculated

scholarly journals Soil quality indicators of arable lands in the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-67
Author(s):  
V. S. Stolbovoy ◽  
A. M. Grebennikov
Keyword(s):  
Soil Quality ◽  
Quality Indicators ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Soil Quality Indicators ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
The Russian Federation

The study presents three groups of Soil Quality Indicators (SQI) of arable lands in the Russian Federation, such as agroclimate conditions, soil parameters and negative soil characteristics. The selection of SQI meets the requirements of the crop growth model for calculating the standard crop yield. The application of SQI in the Grain Equivalent Model allows ranking quality of the soils of agricultural lands in the country. The share of the best quality Chernozems with the standard yield of grain crops exceeding 4 t/ha is about 10%. At the same time, arable Chernozems occupy nearly 66% of total area of agricultural lands. More than 74% of the arable lands including podzolized and leached Chernozems in the northern part and Chernozems southern in the southern part of the agricultural zone are characterized by medium quality with the standard yield of grain crops 2-4 t/ha. About 10% of the arable land occupied by Chestnut solonetzic and saline soils are of poorer quality with the standard yield of grain crops less than 1 t/ha. The proposed indicators are included in the government programs for valuating and monitoring the quality of agricultural lands. The universal validity of indicators is a basis for the development of a new generation of standards for the protection and rational use of soils based on modern digital technologies and GIS approaches.

Forecasting the Transition of the Economy of the Russian Federation to the Dominance of the Fifth Techno-Economic Paradigm

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Д. Ломовцев ◽  
D. Lomovcev ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation

The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual Russian regions to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. By constructing econometric models of economic dynamics, the timing of the beginning of the dominance of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm was estimated. The transition to the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of the country can expected in 2040. The economy of individual regions has already made the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected in many years and decades. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm obtained on basis of the assumption that the trends of economic development prevailing in 2001–2015 were preserved.

scholarly journals Anthocyanin content in grains of barley and oat accessions from the VIR collection

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
K. A. Lukina ◽  
O. Y. Shoeva ◽  
O. N. Kovaleva ◽  
I. G. Loskutov
Keyword(s):  
Hordeum Vulgare ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Avena Sativa ◽  
Functional Food ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Anthocyanin Content ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
Potential Value ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Hcl Solution

Background. Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and oat (Avena sativa L.) are grain crops belonging to one of the main sources of food and forage in the Russian Federation. They contain proteins, various groups of vitamins, fats, carbohydrates, β-glucans, minerals and different bioloactive compounds, including anthocyanins. Recently, much attention has been given to anthocyanins due to their various valuable properties. Therefore, the grain of barley and oat is a potentially promising economic product and a component of functional nutrition. The aim of this work was to estimate the content of anthocyanins in barley and oat accessions with different pigmentation of kernels and lemma. Materials and methods. 32 barley and 11 oat accessions were studied by spectrophotometry. Anthocyanins were extracted from barley and oat kernels with a 1% HCl solution in methanol. Results and discussion. As a result of the study, accessions and varieties with the highest content of anthocyanins were identified: for barley these are k-15904 (China), k-19906 (Mongolia), k-18709 (Japan), k-18723, k-18729 (Canada), k-17725 (Turkey) belonging to var. violaceum; k-29568 (Japan) – var. densoviolaceum; k-8690 (Ethiopia) – var. griseinigrum; k-28205 (Germany) – var. nudidubium; and for oat these are k-15527 (A. ayssinica Hochst. var. braunii Koern., Ethiopia) and k-15245 (A. strigosa Schreb. subsp. brevis var. tephera Mordv. ex Sold. et Rod., Poland). Conclusion. The obtained results demonstrated that the VIR collection includes accessions with potential value for the development of varieties with an increased anthocyanin content, which can be used as functional food products.

scholarly journals Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
N. V. Artamonov ◽  
D. V. Artamonov ◽  
V. A. Artamonov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

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