MODELING AND PREDICTING THE MONO RIVER OVERFLOW UPSTREAM OF THE NANGBETO DAM IN WEST AFRICA USING MULTIPLICATIVE DETERMINIST MODEL

The variation and non-control of the overflow of the Mono River adversely affects the performance of the Nangbetohydropower plant to the point thatitcan no longermeet the increasinglyincreaseddemand for electricity. This studypresents the development of an operational model for forecastingdaily river flows for the plants water retention. The overflow of the Mono River at the upstreamhydroelectric dam from 1991 to 2019 wasanalyzed and modeled by the deterministicprocesswith R software in order to makepredictions. First, the flow serieswasanalyzed by the ARIMA model (18, 1, 2) then by a multiplicative model afterremoving the seasonal trends fromtheseseries by the movingaveragemethod. The calculatederror of the results of said model revealsthat the deterministic model integrates the input generationprocesseswith an error of the order of . Finally, an annual flow forecasting program has been developed as a planning tool for the operation of the dam, in order to meet production needs and to plan water releases.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE VOLUME OF MUTUAL TRADE OF THE EAEU MEMBER STATES

The article provides econometric time series models for the volumes of mutual trade of the EAEU member states based on quarterly data from the 1st quarter of 2017 to the 3rd quarter of 2021. An exponential smoothing model and a multiplicative model are built. Also, a forecast was made for the volume of mutual trade in the IV quarter of 2021

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF OILSEEDS AND GRAIN CROPS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The article presents econometric models of time series presented on the basis of quarterly data on the export volumes of oilseeds and cereals of the Russian Federation in the period from 01.01.2017 to 31.09. 2021. According to the obtained multiplicative model, the forecast of export volumes for 12 commodity groups for the 4th quarter of 2021 is presented

Construction of a Multiplicative Model for Calculating the Volume of Production of Finished Products of a Mining Enterprise

The article is devoted to the issues of planning and budgeting of mining enterprises. External conditions (mining and geological, mining engineering, weather) have a significant impact on the volume of production of finished products and the amount of conditionally variable expenses of a mining enterprise. A different combination of these conditions during a calendar year leads to a change in the volume of production of finished products per unit of time, which creates uncertainty and complicates the planning and budgeting process. The paper proposes a method for calculating the planned volume of production of finished products, taking into account various external conditions, the limitations (limits) that should be taken into account when calculating the volume of production are disclosed. The methodology is developed taking into account the peculiarities of the technological process of production of finished products (fractional crushed stone) of a mining enterprise. Methodological tools of the research: analysis of statistical data on the industry and individual mining enterprises, analysis of the practical activities of mining enterprises. The factors that have a significant impact on the volume of production of finished products in the mining industry are considered. A three-factor multiplicative model is constructed that allows taking into account the influence of mining, geological, mining and weather conditions on the volume of production of finished products of a mining enterprise.

Analysis and modeling of regional electric power consumption subject to influence of external factors

Electric power consumption along with a large variety of factors affecting it can be forecasted and modelled by using econometric forecasting methods, including time series and correlation and regression analysis. For the purpose of this research, electric power consumption in the Moscow Region, Russia, was modelled with consideration of economic and climate factors based on 2019–2020 power usage data. A multiplicative model for regional electric power consumption and correlations between electric power consumption and an air temperature as well as a total number of cloudy days a month were built. The results will be helpful for analyzing and forecasting of processes involved in power consumption.

Comparative study of different exponential smoothing models in simulation of meteorological drought : A study on Purulia district, West Bengal, India

Drought is a burning issue in India and hence needs serious attention of researchers to develop rigorous plan and management. Areas that belong to various plateaus, e.g., Chottanagpur plateau, Deccan plateau, etc., are mostly affected by drought in India. In the past decade, Purulia District of West Bengal, which belongs to northeast part of Chottanagpur plateau, faced severe drought several times. But the assessment of drought in this area was far from a decesive proclamation till date. In this research, an attempt was made to compare the Holt-Winter additive and Holt-Winter multiplicative model in simulation (at 1 month lead time) of meteorological drought (using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of Purulia District, West Bengal, India. The additive model showed better performance than the multiplicative model with minimized Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficient value (R2). The spatial assessment drought at pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon phase indicated that severe drought had occurred in post monsoon and premonsoon phase at the eastern portions of the study area.