scholarly journals Forecasting in the Labour Market

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ram SriRamaratnam ◽  
Kevin Zhang ◽  
Andrew Whiteford
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Total Employment ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes

An assessment of future labour market outcomes is of considerable interest to policy makers and for those making operational decisions with respect to training. These could take the form of forecasts of employment by occupations and skill levels or needs at the national, sectoral or regional level. Often forecasts are make of the demand for labour, both additional and replacement demand, the latter often surpassing the former due to the present demographic composition of the labour force. In order to assess likely future shortages (or surplus) of labour, knowledge of the current supply (not always known with certainty as in the case of seasonal labour) and an understanding of future supply is required, all of which pose considerable challenges. In this paper, an overview of the forecasting needs of the Department of Labour, approaches and methodology likely to be applicable and the required level of accuracy and relevance of forecasts are discussed in relation to national, sectoral, regional and seasonal labour market outcomes. Some preliminary and provisional results are presented as an illustration of likely outcomes. In summary, the total employment level is expected to show and annual average growth of 1.8% from 2005 to 2010, following a higher annual average growth of 2.8% from 2001 to 2005.  However, for the Primary and Manufacturing Sectors, the employment is likely to transform to a positive growth at an average rate of 1.0% and 0.3% respectively from 2005 to 2010 after having experienced a decline from 2001 to 2005. However, for the Private and Public sectors services, employment is expected o increase at an average rate of 1.7% and 2.8% respectively from 2005 to 2010 following a higher growth rate of 3.3% and 4.8% respectively from 2001 to 2005. The consequences of a number of variations in GDP growth and employment ratios by industry are explored in terms of occupational forecasts.

scholarly journals What labour market? A critical STEM supply shortage investigation: Lithuanian case

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jogaila Vaitekaitis
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Theoretical Implication ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Stem Majors ◽  
Engineering Mathematics ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
One Year ◽  
Market Discourse

Aim. The main objective of this investigation is to explore perceived lack of Lithuanian STEM labour force supply. It is often believed that education systems are the bottleneck of economic growth and that by increasing the supply of STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) graduates we will get more and better payed jobs. But a growing body of evidence suggests that in many STEM fields there is an adequate supply or even oversupply of STEM majors. Still, technologically advanced capitalist countries advocate for more STEM workforce regardless of an overcrowded market. Echoing foreign neoliberal trends, Lithuanian education policy makers are on the same STEM shortage hype-train, and reforms are full steam ahead. Methods. To explore perceived lack of Lithuanian STEM labour force supply an assessment of STEM graduates’ (n=3720) occupational destinations one year after graduation and average salaries in those professions was conducted employing a descriptive statistical analysis. Results. Findings show that there is no general shortage of STEM labour supply; the majority (54% n=2023) of all recent STEM degree holders in Lithuania do not work in STEM jobs. The majority of graduates usually do not reach national average income one year after graduation. Conclusions. Persuasion of students to study STEM degrees based on better labour market outcomes is misleading and possibly unethical. The principal theoretical implication of this paper is the acknowledgment that low STEM graduate employment does not necessarily signify a failing education system. Rather, this is an opportunity to look beyond human capital and labour market discourse which, arguably, prevents STEM education to realize its revolutionary potential.

Language skills in an ethnically segmented labour market: Estonia 1989–2012

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven-Kristjan Bormann ◽  
Svetlana Ridala ◽  
Ott-Siim Toomet
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
English Language ◽  
Language Skills ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between skills in the Estonian, Russian and English language, and labour market outcomes in Estonia, a linguistically divided country. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Estonian Labour Force Surveys 1992–2012. The authors rely on multivariate linear regression models to document the relationship between language skills and labour market outcomes. Findings Estonian language knowledge (for ethnic Russians) are important determinants of unemployment. Wage, in contrary, is closely related to English skills. Ethnic Russian men do not earn any premium from speaking Estonian, while women, fluent in Estonian earn approximately 10 per cent more. For ethnic Estonians, Russian fluency is associated with a similar income gain. Research limitations/implications Due to the observational nature of the data, the effects reported in this study are not causal effects. As a second limitation, the self-reported language skills data may be imprecise and hence the effects the authors report may be too small. Practical implications The results stress the role of workplace segregation, both along gender and ethnic lines, in determining the individual labour market experience. Originality/value The authors provide a comprehensive overview of the effects of language skills in a rapidly developing labour market in a linguistically divided economy. The authors analyse several languages with different legal status and document long-term trends in the effects.

scholarly journals Employment chances and changes of immigrants in Belgium: The impact of citizenship

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Corluy ◽  
Ive Marx ◽  
Gerlinde Verbist
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Survey ◽  
Probit Regression ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Labour Market Position ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
Employment Probabilities ◽  
The Impact

This article looks at the impact of citizenship acquisition on the labour market position of immigrants in Belgium. Citizenship is open to all immigrants with a sufficient period of legal residence, without any language or integration requirements. In that respect, this study is an important complement to existing studies which have mostly focused on countries with strict acquisition rules. Based on Labour Force Survey data for 2008, this study uses probit regression to estimate the static and dynamic employment probabilities and unemployment risks. We find that citizenship acquisition is associated with better labour market outcomes for non-Western immigrants in general. This effect remains after controlling for years of residence since migration, indicating the existence of a citizenship premium in Belgium.

scholarly journals Attitudes Towards Immigrants, Immigration Policies and Labour Market Outcomes: Comparing Croatia with Hungary and Slovenia

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (76) ◽  
pp. 5-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerija Botrić
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Migrant Integration ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
European Economies ◽  
Migrant Integration Policies

Abstract The paper provides comparative evidence on attitudes towards immigrants, their labour market outcomes and policies in Croatia and two neighbouring countries – Slovenia and Hungary. Three different data sources have been used: the European Social Survey, an ad-hoc Labour Force Survey module for the year 2014, and the MIPEX index. Although immigrants have a disadvantaged position on the Croatian labour market, most analysed indicators do not imply that they are in a worse position than in other European economies. Migrant integration policies related to the labour market are assessed as being relatively favourable for Croatia. Judging by the comparable indicators for the native population in Croatia, immigrants’ adverse labour market outcomes seem to be more related to the unfavourable general economic situation, and particularly by the deep and long recession.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Disparity between Maori and non-Maori Labour Market Outcomes in the Household Labour Force Survey

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Chapple ◽  
David Rea
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Survey ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Ethnic Classification ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes ◽  
Household Labour ◽  
Over Time

Disparity in labour market outcomes between Maori and non-Maori is examined using Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data. The paper explores the nature of the ethnicity question and ethnic classification in the HLFS. It shows that there are substantial differences in labour market outcomes between those Maori who report only Maori ethnicity and those who report Maori and another ethnicity ("mixed" Maori). The paper then considers various methods of measuring disparity and uses these to examine the time series behaviour of disparity between 1985 and 1998. It concludes that disparity between Maori and non-Maori is greater today than in 1985. However, all this deterioration occurred between 1985 and 1992. Since 1992 disparity has been in decline. The bulk of time series variation in disparity between Maori and non-Maori has been driven by changes in outcomes for the sole Maori group. Mixed Maori, about a quarter share of the Maori ethnic group, has outcomes which closely track those of the non-Maori population over time.

Exploring gender digital divide and its effect on women's labour market outcomes in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-108
Author(s):  
Kehinde Oluwaseun Omotoso ◽  
Jimi Adesina ◽  
Ololade G. Adewole
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Married Women ◽  
Internet Usage ◽  
Market Participation ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Broadband Internet ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Labour Market Participation ◽  
Labour Market Outcomes

Technology plays a significant role in bridging gender gap in labour market outcomes. This paper investigates gender differential in broadband Internet usage and its effects on women‘s labour market participation. Employing an instrumental variable approach, findings suggest that exogenously determined high-speed broadband internet usage leads to increases of about 14.1 and 10.6 percentage points in labour market participation for single women and married women with some level of education, respectively. Moreover, further analyses suggest that married women are generally less likely to use the Internet to search for job opportunities and this could partly explains their low labour market participation rate. The findings suggest that more policy effort is required to bridge gender differentials in digital technologies and employment opportunities in South Africa.

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