scholarly journals An age-old issue: Evaluating the applicability of adult criminal risk assessment tools for use with youth offenders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Anna Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Youth Offenders ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Better Than

<p>Research has consistently recognized that youth and adults share risk factors for crime, although whether certain factors are of increased importance during adolescence is debated. The present research evaluated the extent to which two risk assessment tools could predict criminal and breach reconviction in a matched sample of youth (aged 17-19) and adult (aged 20-60) community- supervised offenders: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) and the static Risk of re-Conviction X Risk of re-Imprisonment (RoC*RoI). Cox regression and AUC analyses revealed initial DRAOR scores had mixed predictive validity for both groups, while proximal risk scores showed comparably moderate to high accuracy for youth and adults. Protective scores were consistently poor predictors for adults. The proximal assessment predicted reconviction better than the initial assessment, and decreases in risk scores between assessments were associated with a reduction in the likelihood of reconviction, showing the value in monitoring risk and updating assessment. The RoC*RoI predicted criminal reconviction for adults but did not predict either reconviction outcome for youth. These findings support the use of the DRAOR for identifying which youth and adults are likely to reoffend, and suggest that dynamic factors might be more useful predictors than static for assessing and monitoring youth offenders.</p>

scholarly journals An age-old issue: Evaluating the applicability of adult criminal risk assessment tools for use with youth offenders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Anna Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Youth Offenders ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Better Than

<p>Research has consistently recognized that youth and adults share risk factors for crime, although whether certain factors are of increased importance during adolescence is debated. The present research evaluated the extent to which two risk assessment tools could predict criminal and breach reconviction in a matched sample of youth (aged 17-19) and adult (aged 20-60) community- supervised offenders: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) and the static Risk of re-Conviction X Risk of re-Imprisonment (RoC*RoI). Cox regression and AUC analyses revealed initial DRAOR scores had mixed predictive validity for both groups, while proximal risk scores showed comparably moderate to high accuracy for youth and adults. Protective scores were consistently poor predictors for adults. The proximal assessment predicted reconviction better than the initial assessment, and decreases in risk scores between assessments were associated with a reduction in the likelihood of reconviction, showing the value in monitoring risk and updating assessment. The RoC*RoI predicted criminal reconviction for adults but did not predict either reconviction outcome for youth. These findings support the use of the DRAOR for identifying which youth and adults are likely to reoffend, and suggest that dynamic factors might be more useful predictors than static for assessing and monitoring youth offenders.</p>

The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2110226
Author(s):  
Aitana Gomis-Pomares ◽  
Lidón Villanueva ◽  
Juan E. Adrián
Keyword(s):  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Recidivism Rate ◽  
Youth Offenders ◽  
Disparate Impact ◽  
Roma Population ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Despite the increasing interest in the accuracy of youth risk assessment tools, the amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest. For this reason, the main goal of this study was to assess the predictive validity and disparate impact of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority. The participants consisted of 88 Roma youth offenders and 135 non-Roma youth offenders, aged between 14 and 17 years old. Their risk of recidivism was assessed by means of the YLS/CMI Inventory and their recidivism rate was obtained from the Juvenile Justice Department. Results showed that the Inventory presented slightly lower predictive validity for the Roma group. Moreover, Roma juveniles presented higher risk scores and lower strength scores than non-Roma juveniles. These results supported the idea that professionals must therefore be aware of these cultural differences in predictive validity and the existent potentiality for disparate impact.

scholarly journals Anticoagulation risk assessment for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism: A clinical review

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-152
Author(s):  
Vincent A Pallazola ◽  
Rishi K Kapoor ◽  
Karan Kapoor ◽  
John W McEvoy ◽  
Roger S Blumenthal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Anticoagulant Therapy ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism anticoagulation risk assessment tools have been increasingly utilized to guide implementation and duration of anticoagulant therapy. Anticoagulation significantly reduces stroke and recurrent venous thromboembolism risk, but comes at the cost of increased risk of major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. The decision for anticoagulation in high-risk patients is complicated by the fact that many risk factors associated with increased thromboembolic risk are simultaneously associated with increased bleeding risk. Traditional risk assessment tools rely heavily on age, sex, and presence of cardiovascular comorbidities, with newer tools additionally taking into account changes in risk factors over time and novel biomarkers to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. These tools may help counsel and inform patients about the risks and benefits of starting or continuing anticoagulant therapy and can identify patients who may benefit from more careful management. Although the ability to predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhagic risk is modest, ischemic and bleeding risk scores have been shown to add significant value to therapeutic management decisions. Ultimately, further work is needed to optimally implement accurate and actionable risk stratification into clinical practice.

Trauma and institutional risk in a secure developmental disorder service: does the SAVRY inflate risk in adolescents exposed to ACEs?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elanor Lucy Webb ◽  
Deborah Morris ◽  
Abbey Hamer ◽  
Jessica Davies
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Developmental Disorders ◽  
Developmental Disorder ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Behaviours ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Assessment Scores ◽  
Institutional Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Purpose Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are highly prevalent in people with developmental disorders who engage in offending behaviour. Many violence-based risk assessment tools include items pertaining to ACEs, and may inflate risk scores in trauma-exposed groups. This paper aims to explore the relationships between ACEs, risk assessment scores, incidents of risk and restrictive practices, in adolescents with developmental disorders in a forensic inpatient setting. Design/methodology/approach Secondary analysis was conducted on clinical data for 34 adolescents detained to a developmental disorder service. Data were extracted for Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) risk scores and risk behaviours and restrictive practices, as measures of observed risk. Findings Participants exposed to more ACEs had higher SAVRY risk scores (p < 0.001, two-tailed), with elevations specifically on the historical subscale (p < 0.001, two-tailed). Neither ACEs nor risk scores were associated with the frequency of risk behaviours. Nevertheless, participants exposed to four or more ACEs were secluded more frequently (p = 0.015, two-tailed), indicating a potential association between trauma and risk severity. Those with more complex developmental disorders experienced fewer ACEs (p = 0.02, two-tailed) and engaged in self-harm behaviours less frequently (p = 0.04, two-tailed). Research limitations/implications The inclusion of ACEs in risk assessment tools may lead to the inadvertent stigmatization of trauma-exposed individuals. Further investigation is necessary to offer clarity on the impact of early adversity on risk assessment accuracy and levels of institutional risk, and the role of developmental disorders in this relationship. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to explore the relative associations between ACEs, risk assessment scores and observed institutional risk and does so in a highly marginalized population.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Risk Assessment Tools for Prostate Cancer

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 662-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Thompson ◽  
Donna P. Ankerst
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Suicide risk assessment in a large public mental health service: do suicide risk classifications identify those at risk?

2021 ◽  
pp. 103985622098403
Author(s):  
Marianne Wyder ◽  
Manaan Kar Ray ◽  
Samara Russell ◽  
Kieran Kinsella ◽  
David Crompton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Public Mental Health ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Suicide Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Mental Health Service ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Introduction: Risk assessment tools are routinely used to identify patients at high risk. There is increasing evidence that these tools may not be sufficiently accurate to determine the risk of suicide of people, particularly those being treated in community mental health settings. Methods: An outcome analysis for case serials of people who died by suicide between January 2014 and December 2016 and had contact with a public mental health service within 31 days prior to their death. Results: Of the 68 people who had contact, 70.5% had a formal risk assessment. Seventy-five per cent were classified as low risk of suicide. None were identified as being at high risk. While individual risk factors were identified, these did not allow to differentiate between patients classified as low or medium. Discussion: Risk categorisation contributes little to patient safety. Given the dynamic nature of suicide risk, a risk assessment should focus on modifiable risk factors and safety planning rather than risk prediction. Conclusion: The prediction value of suicide risk assessment tools is limited. The risk classifications of high, medium or low could become the basis of denying necessary treatment to many and delivering unnecessary treatment to some and should not be used for care allocation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document