scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Trade in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 801-808
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Salyha Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Tayyaba Naveed
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Manufacturing Sectors ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
World Development

Purpose: This study is conducted to examine the effectiveness of Investment in various sectors of the economy on exports of Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2018. Methodology: For this purpose, World Development Indicators and Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy have been utilized to collect time-series data on the related variables. Moreover, the econometric results have been calculated using the ARDL approach and diagnostics statistics are based on Normality Test, Ramsey RESET test and stability tests. Findings: The long-run results explore that Investments in the Agriculture & Manufacturing sectors, Terms of Trade and Human Capital are increasing exports of Pakistan while investments in Services & Transportation sectors are reducing exports of Pakistan. Implications: Based on econometric results, it is suggested that investments in manufacturing and agriculture sectors should be enhanced through low interest rates or by providing opportunities to the private sector so that it may lead to higher growth and exports.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in Liberia: Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Karmoh Sowah ◽  
Dervis Kirikkaleli
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Resultant Effect

Abstract The research aimed was to determine the long-run relationship between financial liberalization, savings mobilization, and investment with a resultant effect on economic growth in the context of the Liberian economy as articulated by McKinnon and Shaw's hypothesis. The study employed time series data spanning from 1980 to 2016 and extracted from World Development Indicators (WDI). The data were analysed using econometric techniques of Combined Cointegration test, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR). To our knowledge, no studies have investigated the effects of financial liberalization and economic growth in Liberia, expressly, employing Combined Cointegration Test. Our findings reveal (i) coefficient of the financial liberalization variable is positive and significant for Liberia, thus support the McKinnon and Shaw hypotheses. (ii) We found combined cointegration among the estimated models. We recommended that policymakers should refrain from any policy that will adversely affect the deposit interest rates considering its immense impact on savings mobilization, gross investment, and the overall economic growth. Furthermore, improving the level of competition will compel deposit-taking financial institutions to raise deposit interest rates in a bid to attract more depositors with a consequential reduction in the interest rates spread.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

scholarly journals Analysis The Effect of Electronic Money Use on Velocity of Money: Evidence from Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Sufi Azhari Pambudi ◽  
M. Khoerul Mubin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Velocity Of Money

This study aims to examine the effect of electronic money transactions on the velocity of money in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative research approach using quarterly time series data for the 2010q1-2018q4 period. Using variable velocity obtained from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) divided by M2, electronic money transactions, GDP per capita, and interest rates using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results show that in the long run variable electronic money transactions, income levels and interest rates are significantly positive. In the short term, interest rates and income levels are significantly positive, while electronic money transactions only have a slight effect on the velocity of moneyin Indonesia.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Demand for Real Money Balances in Africa: Panel Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-376
Author(s):  
Chigozie Nelson Nkalu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Money ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Preference Theory

Abstract This study investigates demand for real money balances in Africa using panel time-series data from Nigeria and Ghana between 1970 and 2014. The study employs Levin, Lin, Chu common unit root process and Pedroni Residual Cointegration Test which the results reveal that all the variables in the model are stationary and cointegrated respectively. Data sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI) were analyzed using Panel Two-Stage Estimated Generalized Least Squares (cross-section Seemingly Unrelated Regression model (SURE)) with Instrumental Variables (IV). The results conform to the liquidity preference theory, with all the variables – inflation, real interest rates, and official exchange rates are statistically significant except real income. It is recommended that the monetary authorities in Africa especially the economies of Nigeria and Ghana should adopt appropriate monetary policies by placing interest rates, inflation and official exchange rates at acceptable levels to boost income through private sector investments.

scholarly journals Growth Limits: A Conceptual Analysis for Sustainable Development in Nigeria

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402091827
Author(s):  
Oluwabunmi O. Adejumo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Limits To Growth ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sub Saharan

In the school of development thought, growth has been identified as a viable alternative to the challenge of poverty and economic backwardness. However, the ecologists have continuously challenged the growth position in relation to environmental degradation and depletion. It is against this background; this study examined the limits to growth in Nigeria beyond which there will be inimical consequences for the environment. The study employed time series data that spanned between 1970 and 2014. These data sets were sourced from the World Development Indicators. Based on the assimilation model, threshold estimates were used to identify optimal growth regions, whereas regression estimates were used to measure growth effects. It was discovered that below the identified growth limit, there are currently significant negative impacts on the quality of the environment in Nigeria via economic growth. This study is a single-country case, that is, Nigeria; hence, the study can be expanded to include other sub-Saharan African countries. The study adds to knowledge by establishing the prospects for sustainability in the quality of the environment in the long run; therefore, policies designed in this areas have higher likelihood of attaining sustainability.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-through and Its Impacts on the Nigeria Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Obasanmi, Jude Omokugbo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
High Level ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

Exchange Rate Pass-Through is an approximation of international macroeconomic transmission of prices and thus has implications for the timing of economic policy interventions. Hence, the degree and speed of pass-through is important for formulating policy responses to economic shocks. In this study, the researcher evaluated some channels and impacts of exchanges rate pass-through on the Nigerian economy during the period spanning from 1981 to 2018. Unit root and co-integration tests, as well as the error regression analysis on the time series data for the period 1981-2018 were carried out. The empirical outcomes indicated that Exchange rate changes pass-through interest rate and inflation rate channels on both short and long run and thus significantly affected interest rates and prices of goods and service in Nigeria during the study period. These outcomes yielded key policy insights and outlook which made the researcher to recommend amongst others that Government should ensure that the interest rates are brought to a level that will enable producers access investible funds. When there is high level of funds for production, exports would likely increase ceteris paribus, there by an increase in the foreign exchange earnings for the country and an appreciation of the naira.

scholarly journals Determinants of Industrial Sector Growth in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (III) ◽  
pp. 61-70
Author(s):  
Mujib Ur Rahman ◽  
Amtul Hafeez ◽  
Wisal Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Negative Effect

A strong industrial sector shows greater economic growth. To find industrial growth, this study hereby made an attempt. Time series data is used. Data is obtained from the years 1984 to 2018. The stationarity of the series is checked through Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF). Moreover, the ARDL approach is used to check short and long-run estimation of the model, estimating the determinants of the industrial sector growth in Pakistan. A long-run positive and significant associations between External debt (% of GDP), GDP (Annual Growth), FDI, Remittances (% of GDP) is identified, while trade has a negative effect on industrial growth. The factor remittances have an insignificant but positive influence on the industrial sector growth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic variables and banking sector development: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 288-301
Author(s):  
Ojo Johnson Adelakun ◽  
Babatunde Afolabi ◽  
Uwasejike B Abuh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Bound Test

The study assessed the relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Development in the Nigerian Banking Sector using annual time series data. Models were specified using Ratio of Credits to Private Sector to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Banking Sector Development. At the same time, GDP growth rate, Poverty, Exchange Rate, Oil Price, Poverty, Money Supply, Inflation, and Interest rates were the selected Macroeconomic Variables used in the study. Data used were sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for various editions and estimated using ARDL Bound Test and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The study found that there exists a long-run relationship between Macroeconomic Variables selected and Banking Sector Development. The VECM coefficients revealed that all variables except Interest Rates have negative effects on Banking Sector Development. The VECM (-1), which showed the speed of adjustment, was rightly signed and significant, indicating a long-run causality relationship running from macroeconomic variables to banking sector development. The Impulse response from restricted VAR revealed that Banking Sector responded to the Macroeconomic Variables of which GDPGR and INT were transmitting negatively to Banking Sector Development while others were transmitting positive impulses. However, the variance decomposition found that oil price, followed by GDPGR and poverty, caused more variation in Banking Sector Development. In contrast, inflation and money supply caused the least variation in Banking Sector Development. The study, therefore, concluded that selected Macroeconomic Variables have a significant long-run relationship with Banking Sector Development. It is therefore recommended, among others that, Macroeconomic indicators should be well monitored and controlled using macroeconomic instruments promptly since when they are well managed would lead to a better developed Banking Sector in Nigeria.

Monetary Policy and Nigeria's Trade Balance, 1980-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-138
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Kanang Amos Akims
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

Several countries have integrated monetary easement into their foreign policy to faucet the gains from trade thereby, assuring that market forces determine monetary policy instruments such as interest rate and exchange rate. It is on this note and this paper empirically evaluate the effect of monetary policy on Nigeria's trade balance using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model on the time series data spanning from 1980 to 2018. The findings reveal that monetary policy tools of real interest and effective exchange rate have a long-run co-integration relationship and significant adverse effects on Nigeria's trade balance both in the short-run and long-run. Thus, the paper concludes that monetary policy is a veritable tool through which Nigeria can maintain a favorable trade balance. Therefore, policymakers should step on measures that will maintain low-interest rates to sustain a flexible exchange rate and remove all rigidities associated with the international payment system.JEL Classification: C22, E52, F13How to Cite:Sakanko, M. A., & Akims, K. A. (2021). Monetary Policy and Nigeria’s Trade Balance, 1980-2018. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 129-138. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.18132.

The Role of Financial Development in Economic Growth of Nepal: ARDL Approach of Cointegration with Structural Break Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh C. Paudel ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach

This paper, using the most recent index of financial development as developed in Svirydzenka (2016), examines the role of financial development in the economic growth of Nepal. This paper employs the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration with the structural break in time series data for the period of 1980-2017. Nepal is a unique country with a population of about 30 million with high demographic dividend and big markets in the neighbours, the earlier entrant in the liberalization and reform in the region, endowed with lots of natural resources and beauties, and comparatively cheaper labor force in the region but it remains as one of the poor landlocked developing countries sandwiched between two emerging economies, namely China and India. The results show that financial development has a strong long-run positive relationship with economic growth. Therefore, developing the strategies for the proper financial development improving the financial institution quality and widening the financial market to improve capital formation would be a way to accelerate the economic growth in Nepal.

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