scholarly journals Russian ruble exchange rate: Modeling of comparative medium-term and long-term dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 6-15
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Kuzmin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Equilibrium Dynamics ◽  
Functional Relationships

The subject of the study is the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in a multilevel system of economic fundamental determinants-aggregates in the context of the independent floating rate of the national currency. The aim of the study is to develop the author’s theoretical and methodological conceptual approach to modeling the dynamics of the equilibrium exchange rate based on international flows (IFEER) and to develop a new model of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics on its basis. The methodological base of the research includes system analysis, fundamental methods of economic theory, classical methods of mathematical analysis, and economic and statistical analysis, and the provisions of national accounting. The paper presents data on the verifcation of the results of modeling mediumterm equilibrium dynamics. At the same time, the author pays considerable attention to the mathematical modeling of the long-term dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in comparison with the medium-term equilibrium dynamics and the mathematical analysis of internal functional relationships in modern conditions, which determines the scientifc novelty and relevance of the study. Based on the conducted mathematical modeling, the author concludes about the trends of a stronger ruble exchange rate in the long run, while maintaining the current long-term trends.

scholarly journals PUBLIC DEBT AND ITS PLACE IN THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

2020 ◽  
pp. 150-155
Author(s):  
Kurpayanidi Konstantin Ivanovich ◽  
Mukhsinova Shakhrizoda Odiljon qizi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Literary Sources ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Borrowing ◽  
Reasonable Use

In this article, the authors consider modern approaches and methodology for defining the concept of public debt in the national economy. The author's interpretation of the economic category of public debt is given on the basis of the system analysis of literary sources. The activities carried out by the government of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the external borrowing market are studied separately, and projects implemented at the expense of the state debt are considered. The necessity of reasonable use of borrowings in long - term and medium-term projects is proved. Based on the analysis of the Japanese Plan to revive economic growth, or the "Three arrows plan" of S. Abe, the directions for regulating public debt for the conditions of the Republic of Uzbekistan are proposed. KEYWORDS: Public debt, borrowing, debt composition, state regulation, S. Abe's "Three arrows plan", economy of Uzbekistan.

scholarly journals Analysis of Dynamic Model of Cigarette Consumption Reduces First Goal of SDGs in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Aini ◽  
Roosita Melani Dewi ◽  
Adi Musharianto
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Capita Expenditure ◽  
Expenditure Data ◽  
Performance System ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Input Variables

This research aims to see the extent to which the real conditions of society can be separated from the trap of poverty due to consuming cigarettes. This research uses secondary data which taken from various sources of publication. The variables used are input variables and output variables. Input variables are in the form of community income. Output variables used are average per capita expenditure. Data analysis using Dynamic System Analysis with software of ITHINK ® Ver. 6.01 from the High Performance System (2000). The result of this research indicate that in the condition of the community consuming 1 cigarette per day shows that groups of community are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty until the end of Medium Term and Long Term Development Plan is poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society. While middle to middle society, middle to upper society and rich society still have an income balance from the beginning of the research year to the next 20 years. While the result of the scenario of consumption of 2 packs of cigarettes per day show besides poor society, almost poor society and middle to lower society are difficult to escape from the trap of poverty, middle to middle society are in poverty for the next 20 years as well. Therefore the goal of the first SDGs in Indonesia to eliminate poverty is difficult to achieve.

scholarly journals REER Imbalances and Macroeconomic Adjustments: Evidence from the CEMAC Zone

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simplice A. Asongu ◽  
Joseph Nnanna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate

The European Monetary Union (EMU) crisis holds special lessons for existing monetary unions. We assess the behaviour of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model is estimated for associated misalignments. Our findings suggest that for majority of countries, macroeconomic fundamentals have the expected associations with the exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis also reveals that only the REER adjustments of Cameroon and Gabon are significant in restoring the long-term equilibrium in the event of a shock. The Cameroonian economic fundamentals of terms of trade, government expenditure and openness have different long-term relations with the REER in comparison to those of other member states. There is no need for an adjustment in the level of the peg based on the present quantitative analysis of REER paths. JEL: F31, F33, F42, F61, O55

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Aspects of the Evolution of the Romanian Tourists’ Preferences Concerning the Domestic Tourist Destinations

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
Aniela Bălăcescu ◽  
Radu Șerban Zaharia
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
On Line ◽  
The One ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract Tourist services represent a category of services in which the inseparability of production and consumption, the inability to be storable, the immateriality, and last but not least non-durability, induces in tourism management a number of peculiarities and difficulties. Under these circumstances the development of medium-term strategies involves long-term studies regarding on the one hand the developments and characteristics of the demand, and on the other hand the tourist potential analysis at regional and local level. Although in the past 20 years there has been tremendous growth of on-line booking made by household users, the tour operators agencies as well as those with sales activity continue to offer the specific services for a large number of tourists, that number, in the case of domestic tourism, increased by 1.6 times in case of the tour operators and by 4.44 times in case of the agencies with sales activity. At the same time, there have been changes in the preferences of tourists regarding their holiday destinations in Romania. Started on these considerations, paper based on a logistic model, examines the evolution of the probabilities and scores corresponding to the way the Romanian tourists spend their holidays on the types of tourism agencies, actions and tourist areas in Romania.

Application of the method of mathematical modeling for forecasting channel deformations at the underwater crossing of the main pipeline

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-609
Author(s):  
Valery А. Gruzdev ◽  
◽  
Georgy V. Mosolov ◽  
Ekaterina A. Sabayda ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Roughness Coefficient ◽  
Computational Domain ◽  
Channel Deformations ◽  
Geological Surveys ◽  
Kuban River ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Protective Structures

In order to determine the possibility of using the method of mathematical modeling for making long-term forecasts of channel deformations of trunk line underwater crossing (TLUC) through water obstacles, a methodology for performing and analyzing the results of mathematical modeling of channel deformations in the TLUC zone across the Kuban River is considered. Within the framework of the work, the following tasks were solved: 1) the format and composition of the initial data necessary for mathematical modeling were determined; 2) the procedure for assigning the boundaries of the computational domain of the model was considered, the computational domain was broken down into the computational grid, the zoning of the computational domain was performed by the value of the roughness coefficient; 3) the analysis of the results of modeling the water flow was carried out without taking the bottom deformations into account, as well as modeling the bottom deformations, the specifics of the verification and calibration calculations were determined to build a reliable mathematical model; 4) considered the possibility of using the method of mathematical modeling to check the stability of the bottom in the area of TLUC in the presence of man-made dumping or protective structure. It has been established that modeling the flow hydraulics and structure of currents, making short-term forecasts of local high-altitude reshaping of the bottom, determining the tendencies of erosion and accumulation of sediments upstream and downstream of protective structures are applicable for predicting channel deformations in the zone of the TLUC. In all these cases, it is mandatory to have materials from engineering-hydro-meteorological and engineering-geological surveys in an amount sufficient to compile a reliable mathematical model.

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