scholarly journals A LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOLD PRICE AND INFLATION- EVIDENCE FROM THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 100-107
Author(s):  
Anjali ◽  
K.T. Thomachan
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indian Experience ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

The study examines the long run relationship between gold price and inflation from the Indian experience.  The main objective of the study is to identify whether there is long run relationship between the gold price and inflation.  For the investigation three year monthly data from July 2011 to June 2014.  The study is conducted by Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test and finally came to the conclusion that there is no long run relationship between gold price and inflation.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals ENERGY ACCESS AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (30) ◽  
Author(s):  
Musibau Ojo Adejumo ◽  
Ajide Bello Kazeem
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Energy Access ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Granger Causality

This study empirically examined the energy access andhousehold income in Sub-Saharan African countries between1990 and 2015. The study employed five variables:energy access, per capita income, energy price, FDI andtrade openness, as well as panel unit root test using twocriteria to test stationarity. Panel cointegration test wasalso conducted to test long-run cointegration between thevariables employed. Panel granger causality test was employedto check the degree of causality between the dependentand explanatory variables and Auto RegressiveDistributive Lag method of estimation was employed tocheck the long-run and short-run relationships between thevariables. The results of the panel unit root test from theLLC and IPS methods show that the order of integrationsis mixed with some of the variables being stationary atlevels (household income, Foreign Direct Investment andTrade Openness) and first difference (Energy Access andFuel Price) at the same time. The result of Pedroni cointegrationtest indicated the bivariate long-run cointegrationequation between the variables employed except forEA and GDPPC. The panel granger causality test revealedthat there is causality between these three variables (EA,GDPPC and FUELP) and the direction of causality onlyflows from these variables to energy access. The ARDLresult revealed that all explanatory variables accountedfor 60% variation of energy access in SSA. However,the study made the following policy implications: energypolicy needs to be orientated in favor of expanding thesupply of energy to reach an enhanced degree of sustainableeconomic growth and development, and governmentsin this region can subsidize energy products to increaseits consumption and promote the welfare of their citizens.

scholarly journals Stochastic Pattern of Major Indices of Bombay Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 6774-6779
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Portfolio Managers

It is interesting to get inside and draw a meaningful inference by studying the movement of various stock indices. Portfolio managers, analysts, and investors are very keen to know about the technical pattern of indices. They consider the stock market is one of the economic barometers or market indicators of an economy. Indian financial market has undergone radical and vital change during the past few years. The purpose of this study is to check stochastic movements in selected indices and to signify nexus and interdependency among one another by the virtue of econometric analysis. The study comprises of daily closing value from 1st April 2014-1st April 2018, including major indices i.e. S&P-BSE 100; S&P-BSE-200, S&P BSE-500, S&P-BSE:Large cap, S&P-BSE:Mid-cap, S&P-BSE:small-cap, and BSE-SENSEX. Moreover, typical econometrics tool Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Granger Causality Test, and Johansen Co-integration Test were implemented to conclude the result. The study is one of its kinds to analyze the static and pair wise relationship among seven BSE indices along with the direction of their expected future movement that would help practitioners, policy makers and investors in anticipating the future movement of the indices. The Dickey-Fuller and Johanson test administered to analyze unit root and co-integration among the series in long run, followed by Granger causality test to observe the route of the short term relationship among various indices. The tests reveal uni-directional and in some cases bi-directional causality in selected indices. Further, it has been observed that due to co-integration, prices of different indices can’t move far away from one another [1]. This stochastic study delves volatility pattern of some major indices of Bombay stock exchange with the help of econometric tools. It clearly delineates nexus of all the indices and provided an explanation to appreciate concrete conduct of one series into a mutual relationship. Hence, investors or analyst may predict the movements, interdependency and their relationship in a significant manner.

scholarly journals Economic Growth And Unemployment: An Empirical Assessment of Okun’s Law In The Case of Liberia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaiballah Conteh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Flexible Labor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government

The aim of this research is to look at the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Liberia from 2001 to 2019. To investigate the association between unemployment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the unit root test, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Co-integration test, and the Standard Granger Causality test were used. The Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) bounds test is used to decide if the variables have a long run linkage. The ARDL model findings indicate that there is no long-run association between unemployment and economic growth. The findings of this analysis have especially significant policy implications for Liberian economic policymakers. The observational findings revealed a negligible association between unemployment and economic growth in both the long and short term. The Liberian government should redirect its spending toward activities that directly and indirectly promote the creation of employment and decent jobs, a conducive environment and flexible labor market policies or legislation that are not impediments to job creation should be created, and finally, the government should prioritize industries that promote labor intensive.

scholarly journals Investigating Causal Relations of Economic Variables: Capital, GDP, Labour and Population in Sweden 1870-2000

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-86
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mastak Al Amin ◽  
Anamul Haque Sajib ◽  
Mohammad Alamgir
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Auto Regressive

The main objective of this paper was to study the causal relationships of the economic variables GDP, labour, capital and population in Sweden during the time period 1870 to 2000. In this paper the theory of unit root tests, vector auto regressive (VAR) model and Granger-Causality test were ased to find the causality of the variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller test was also used as unit root test. By applying all these tests and methods, the causal relationship among the economic variables has been established. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v62i2.21970 Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 62(2): 81-86, 2014 (July)

scholarly journals Domestic Factors That Affect The Price of Styrene Butadiene Latex in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Rosalendro Eddy Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Positive Coefficient ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Styrene Butadiene

This paper investigates or examines the causal links between price of styrene butadiene latex (SBL) and other domestic variables such as supply, demand, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI), price of styrene, and price of butadiene during the period of 1995–2017 on the monthly basis.. Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) or unit root test showed that the stationary state of the whole variables is of first difference (I). The Granger pairwise causality test revealed a bidirectional causality of SBL with BTD(Butadiene), SBL with STY(Styrene), SUPP(Supply) with DMD(Demand), DMD with STY, DMD with BTD and STY with SUPP and vice versa. Johansen test found out a co-integration of SBL prices. However, this study proved no significant links between the price of SBL and supply of SBL (SUPP) in the long and short run. This paper highlights the fact that SBL price has a significant direct impact in the long run on the styrene (STY) and butadiene (BTD) prices, as well as HHI. Similarly, these aspects also have a significant direct impact proved by the positive coefficient in the long run on the SBL pricing. The findings further showed that the price of SBL has a connection and significant direct impact on the negative arrow for the short and long run equilibrium, in line with the price and demands for SB Latex, pressing and oil classification.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Return on Equity of Quoted Insurance Firms: A Time Series Study from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-76
Author(s):  
Macfubara, Minafuro Suzane ◽  
Norteh Dumbor ◽  
Gberesuu, Barida Barry
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Insurance Firms

The financial system is the transmission channel of monetary policy. This study examines the effect of monetary policy on the performance of insurance firms in Nigeria from 1990 – 2017. The objective is to investigate the existing relationship between monetary policy instruments and the performance indicators of insurance companies. Secondary data were sourced from Stock Exchange factbook, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Multiple linear regressions were formulated to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. Return on equity was modeled as a function of treasury bill rate, monetary policy rate, interest rate, growth of money supply and exchange rate.  R2, T-Statistics, β Coefficient, F-Statistics and Durbin Watson were used to examine the extent to which the independent variables affect the dependent variables while augmented dickey fuller unit root test, granger causality test, cointgration test and error correction models was used to ascertain the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and return on equity of the insurance firms. Findings revealed that, all the explanatory variables have positive effect on return on equity except treasury bill rate.  The unit root test found that the variables are stationary at first difference, the cointgration test found the presence of long run relationship while the granger causality test found a uni-directional causality. The study concludes that monetary policy has moderate effect on the return on equity of the insurance firms. We recommend that management of insurance companies should devise measures of managing the negative effects of the monetary policy instruments to enhance the performance of the insurance companies.

scholarly journals Dynamic linkage between nifty-fifty and sectorial indices of national stock exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Kamaljit Singh ◽  
Vinod Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Service ◽  
Causality Test

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the trend and pattern of the Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. An attempt has been also made to find out the causal relationship among the Nifty-Fifty and NSE sectorial Indices. The unit root test and Granger-causality test has been applied to check the causal relationship between Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. The finding of the study shows that the financial service sector had performed better and followed by the banking sector among all the indices while the Pharma sector and the Realty sector were Under-performed in comparison to other indices. The Nifty-Fifty has been found less volatile in comparison to other sectorial indices however Realty sector indices show the highest volatility during the study period.

Analyzing Dynamic Causal Linkages Between Developed Stock Markets of Spain and Canada

2019 ◽  
pp. 282-293
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
International Portfolio ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Bds Test

The main objective of this chapter involves analyzing dynamic causal linkages between developed stock markets of Spain and Canada. The long-run dynamic causal linkages between international stock markets highlight the importance of a functional and stable financial environment. As an explanation based on chaos theory, seemingly insignificant structural imbalances can easily generate dramatic consequences in the context of a globalized and integrated worldwide financial structure. The empirical analysis is based on daily log-returns of selected developed stock markets major indices during the sample period between June 1993 and December 2013. The financial econometrics empirical research includes the Unit Root Test, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationary test, the BDS test and the Granger causality test. The empirical results provide a useful framework on international portfolio diversification and risk management.

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