scholarly journals The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Economic Activity: A Regime Dependent Impulse Response Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Wajid Ali ◽  
Iftikhar Ahmad

Asymmetries in fiscal policies cannot be captured by linear time series models. In order to examine the asymmetry responses of output in different phases of the business cycle, Markov Regime Switching (MRS) model is an alternative technique that is used to achieve the objective.  The main objective of this study is to empirically explore the effects of fiscal shocks (spending and taxes) on Pakistan’s overall economic activity GDP while utilizing Markov Switching MS-VAR model. The model is characterized to allow for the variation in mean, coefficients and in error variances. The study results show that the effect of shocks and the size of multiplier varies across regimes confirming the asymmetric behavior of fiscal policy transmission mechanism. Moreover, the impact of positive spending shock has a stronger effect on output in the recession as compared to boom. One surprising result of the study is that the tax shock increases the output both in recession and boom. Lastly, spending and revenue behave a-cyclically. JEL Classification Codes: C11; C32; E62

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1646
Author(s):  
Mahije Mustafi ◽  
Sulbije Memeti Karemani

This paper analyzes the empirical literature that examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity. Discussion related to fiscal policy is related to the impacts on economic growth is quite current, because the development of appropriate fiscal instruments can lead to steady and sustainable economic growth in the countries. The role of fiscal policy and the impact on economic activity are among the most controversial issues among academics and policymakers. In the absence of any "active" intervention in government expenses, tax revenues move automatically with the economic cycle. I can also say that government transfers can be considered as help for the unemployed, they grow as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, while labor tax returns, capital and consumption flows are declining. Resistive actions occur when the business cycle improves. In recent years, empirical studies have shown that private consumption and GDP have increased significantly, while government expenses have been severely reduced. Most empirical evidence suggests that fiscal expansion increases production and consumption and worsens the trade balance.The Kenzie and Neoclassical schools have different views on the impact of public spending on economic activity. This study has completed a detailed review of many important, relevant scientific havepapersthat empirically document these impacts. As a conclusion, we can state that although the fiscal policy theory is well developed, until recently has not received much attention from the (applied) economic practice. The first category is aimed at assessing macroeconomic impact from major reductions in the budget deficit, and the second study, in general, analyzes the stabilizing capabilities of fiscal policy variables. According to Blanchard and Perotti, the dynamic effects of the discretionary fiscal policy of macroeconomic variables have recently focused on the omissions of autoregressive vectors (2002). Some empirical studies have found a link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation, both in industrialized economies as well as in growing economies. For industrial economies most of these studies have come to the conclusion that there is little evidence that government debt affects the growth of money and inflation. In developing countries, it is often argued that high inflation is realized when governments face large and ongoing deficits financed by money emission. A change in taxes or public expenses (the so-called “fiscal shocks”) at any time prevents their development.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".


2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tumpak Silalahi ◽  
Tevy Chawwa

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification : E52, E62, E63Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial sector policy, global financial crisis.


2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-228
Author(s):  
Tumpak Silalahi ◽  
Tevy Chawwa

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification : E52, E62, E63Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial sector policy, global financial crisis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-192
Author(s):  
Tahir Mukhtar ◽  
Zainab Jehan

This study empirically estimates the fiscal consequences of terrorism in Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1984 to 2016. By employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the study has gauged the impact of terrorist incidents on two important facets of fiscal policy, namely, tax revenue and defense spending. The results reveal that terrorism has detrimental ramifications for fiscal policy in Pakistan. Specifically, on the one hand, an increase in terrorist incidents tends to bring a fall in tax revenue while on the other hand, they induce a rise in defense outlays, thus deteriorating both fronts of the fiscal position. Notably, the moderating role of institutional quality appears significant and indicates that institutional quality has not only a significant direct impact on fiscal policy, but it also helps in completely mitigating (reducing) the harmful impact of terrorism on defense spending (tax revenue) in Pakistan. These findings suggest that there is a need to take appropriate steps for strengthening institutional setup to control the fallouts of terrorism on fiscal behavior of the government of Pakistan. Keywords: Terrorism; Tax Revenue; Institutional Quality; ARDL JEL Classification: E62; H2; E02; H5; F35


Author(s):  
Chih-Wei Lin ◽  
Wei-Ming Chen ◽  
Wei Peng Tan ◽  
Su-Shiang Lee ◽  
Wen-Hua Yang

Objective - This study aims to construct a model for the willingness to develop sports tourism, using the factors of place attachment, the impact of sports tourism, attitude and willingness to develop sports tourism. Methodology/Technique - The study gathers data via questionnaires. Following this, purposive sampling is used to distribute the questionnaires and the collected data is analysed using descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis and a structural equation model. Findings - Once the aforementioned analysis is conducted, the following conclusions were drawn. First, the model construction fits well. Second, the factor of place attachment has a significant positive influence on the perceived impact of sports tourism. Both the positive perception of sports tourism and the attitude for developing sports tourism have a positive impact on willingness to develop sports tourism. Contrary to this, negative perceptions of sports tourism have a negative impact on the attitude to develop sports tourism, although it has no significant impact on the willingness to develop sports tourism. Novelty - This study demonstrates that the higher the degree of place attachment associated with the inhabitants of Taiwan, the greater recognition there is of the impact of sports tourism. The most important finding of this study is that this positive impact enhances the attitude and willingness of inhabitants to develop sports tourism. The study also develops some practical strategies based on the study results. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Place Attachment; Willingness; Sports Tourism; Tourism Impact. JEL Classification: Z30, Z39.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-70
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro- wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Tung

Vietnam is an Asian emerging country, which now is ranked in the group of the fastest-gro-wing economies worldwide. However, this economy has faced galloping inflation in recent years. So the Vietnamese experience is a valuable reference for the policymakers in the developing world in order to successfully control price volatility. Our study applies the Vector autoregressive method, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Granger causality test to examine the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on price volatility in Vietnam with a quarterly data sample collected over the period from 2004 to 2018. The study results confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between these policies and price volatility in Vietnam. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response function also show that the impact of these policies on inflation is clear, however, the fiscal policy more strongly affects inflation than the monetary policy. Finally, the Granger causality test also indicates one-way causality relationships from the government expenditure as well as the exchange rate to price volatility in the study period.


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