EMPIRICAL STUDIES ANALYZING THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND TAXATION ON ACTIVITY

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1646
Author(s):  
Mahije Mustafi ◽  
Sulbije Memeti Karemani

This paper analyzes the empirical literature that examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity. Discussion related to fiscal policy is related to the impacts on economic growth is quite current, because the development of appropriate fiscal instruments can lead to steady and sustainable economic growth in the countries. The role of fiscal policy and the impact on economic activity are among the most controversial issues among academics and policymakers. In the absence of any "active" intervention in government expenses, tax revenues move automatically with the economic cycle. I can also say that government transfers can be considered as help for the unemployed, they grow as the economy slows down and unemployment rises, while labor tax returns, capital and consumption flows are declining. Resistive actions occur when the business cycle improves. In recent years, empirical studies have shown that private consumption and GDP have increased significantly, while government expenses have been severely reduced. Most empirical evidence suggests that fiscal expansion increases production and consumption and worsens the trade balance.The Kenzie and Neoclassical schools have different views on the impact of public spending on economic activity. This study has completed a detailed review of many important, relevant scientific havepapersthat empirically document these impacts. As a conclusion, we can state that although the fiscal policy theory is well developed, until recently has not received much attention from the (applied) economic practice. The first category is aimed at assessing macroeconomic impact from major reductions in the budget deficit, and the second study, in general, analyzes the stabilizing capabilities of fiscal policy variables. According to Blanchard and Perotti, the dynamic effects of the discretionary fiscal policy of macroeconomic variables have recently focused on the omissions of autoregressive vectors (2002). Some empirical studies have found a link between budget deficits, money growth and inflation, both in industrialized economies as well as in growing economies. For industrial economies most of these studies have come to the conclusion that there is little evidence that government debt affects the growth of money and inflation. In developing countries, it is often argued that high inflation is realized when governments face large and ongoing deficits financed by money emission. A change in taxes or public expenses (the so-called “fiscal shocks”) at any time prevents their development.

2021 ◽  
pp. 097491012110616
Author(s):  
Natalia I. Doré ◽  
Aurora A. C. Teixeira

The factors required to achieve sustainable economic growth in a country are debated for decades, and empirical research in this regard continues to grow. Given the relevance of the topic and the absence of a comprehensive, systematic literature review, we used bibliometric techniques to examine and document several aspects in the empirical literature related to growth, from 1991 to 2020. Five main results are worth highlighting: (a) the share of empirical articles on economic growth show a clear upward trend; (b) among all the groups of countries considered, the emerging economies (EEs) have received the most scientific attention; (c) the economic growth processes of the Latin American and Caribbean EEs have observed negligible scientific attention; (d) the very long-run studies comprise a residual share among the empirical literature on growth; (e) the extant empirical studies on economic growth have addressed mainly the impact of “macroeconomic conditions.” Our findings suggest there is a need to redirect the empirical growth agenda, so as to encourage more scientific attention devoted to the analysis of key determinants of economic growth in the very long run. There should also be increased scrutiny of the processes of economic growth in Latin American and Caribbean EEs


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Themba G. Chirwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

AbstractThe paper conducts a qualitative narrative appraisal of the existing empirical literature on the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in developing and developed countries. Much as other empirical studies have investigated the determinants of economic growth using various econometric methods, the majority of these studies have not distinguished what drives or hinders economic growth in developing or developed countries. The study finds that the determinants of economic growth are different when this distinction is used. It reveals that in developing countries the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth include foreign aid, foreign direct investment, fiscal policy, investment, trade, human capital development, demographics, monetary policy, natural resources, reforms and geographic, regional, political and financial factors. In developed countries, the study reveals that the key macroeconomic determinants that are associated with economic growth include physical capital, fiscal policy, human capital, trade, demographics, monetary policy and financial and technological factors.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Omar Zuhair Hafiz Omar Zuhair Hafiz

The lead paper (Pettifor, 2019) discusses an important issue at the macroeconomic level, especially the impact of financing government’s expansionary budget deficit through borrowing. The paper reiterates that claiming that the use of loans to finance the deficit will lead to a decline in the economic activity and will in turn increase the deficit, is a common misconception. In fact, the data on the British economy over a period of a hundred years, as shown in the lead paper, proves that there is a positive relationship between the volume of the budget deficit (and public debt) and economic activity. This, in turn, lead to a decrease in unemployment and thus, eventually contributed to a reduction in the budget deficit. These results have been proven by other researches as well as I have mentioned in this paper. I have also pointed to other researches which indicate that there is a negative relationship between the size of the debt (or the budget deficit), and economic activity, which contradicts the hypothesis of the lead paper. In this brief comment on the lead paper, I also discuss the fact that the global debt phenomenon has become a burning issue. I present a summary of the state of international debt around the world and discuss its impact on the economies of many countries that repay their debts in hard currencies. I argue that this situation must be taken into consideration when discussing the impact of borrowing to finance the government budget deficit to stimulate economic growth. I also propose that these effects on the borrowing economies should also be analyzed in the event that these international loans are in the form of Islamic instruments (ṣukūk) which are increasingly being used by some governments as a tool to finance their budget deficits, especially among the OIC countries. However, because it is a modern financing tool, several years need to pass before we can viably test the relationship between them and economic growth and the extent of their impact on key variables at the macro level of the economy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (04) ◽  
pp. 1930001
Author(s):  
VISHAL SARIN ◽  
SURESH KUMAR

Recently, there has been a significant rise in the volume and significance of FDI flows. The foreign direct investment (FDI), which is undertaken by multinational corporations, affects not only the host economy but also the home economy in many ways. The impact of FDI on host economy has been very well explained by several researchers. But there is lack of literature that has investigated the impact of FDI on the economy of the investing country. The purpose of this paper is to revisit the empirical studies which are related with exploring the impact of outward FDI on various economic activities such as exports, domestic investment, productivity and economic growth in the investing country. In this pursuit, a through survey of empirical literature in this area, published since 1980 across different journals has been made and presented.


2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-357
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

This article provides a detailed survey of existing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of public debt on economic growth in both developing and developed economies. The aim of the article is to add to the existing debate on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in world economies. The survey finds diverse and, in some cases, inconsistent evidence on the relative impact of public debt on economic growth. Although the majority of the surveyed literature supports the negative effect of public debt on economic growth, several other studies have found a long-run positive impact of public debt on economic growth through the fiscal multiplier effect. The article also found that a few other studies support the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH), which states that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is nonexistent. On balance, the article also found that there is a growing body of empirical evidence, which supports the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Overall, it concludes that theoretical models and empirical studies yield inconclusive results depending on a set of heterogeneous factors, including the level of development of the sampled countries, data coverage, methodology used, and the researchers’ choice of control variables, among other factors. This literature survey differs predominantly from other earlier studies in that it provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between government debt and economic growth, in addition to disentangling public debt into two components, domestic and foreign, and expounding on their relative effects on economic growth.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (519) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Y. O. Herasymova ◽  

The current theoretical and empirical studies do not provide an unambiguous valuation of the nature of the impact of the shadow (or informal) sector of the economy on the dynamics of macro-economic growth of countries and regions. The shadow economy is characterized by clearly defined dualism, which acquires its concentrated expression in performing its double role in the development of the socio-economic system of society. On the one hand, it has a positive influence on the macro-economic growth of many countries, overcoming population poverty and socio-humanitarian backwardness; but on the other hand, it significantly exacerbates socio-economic, financial, tax-administrative and other problems that significantly hamper the scientific, technical, innovative and humanitarian progress of many countries over the world. Dualistic approach to a comprehensive analysis of the impact of shadowed economic activity on the structural dynamics of national and global development allows to clearly specify its threats and dangers. There is no doubt that the shadowing of economic activity leads to significant violations of the functioning of the national social sectors of the States for the following reasons: deepening asymmetry in the regional and intra-country distribution of income; carrying out socially unfair privatization of the State-owned objects; expansion of illegal production of goods and services, as well as structural deformation of public consumption. This not only causes an increase in the economies of different States of social instability and deepening of the intra-country asymmetry in the distribution of incomes of different groups of the population, but also sufficiently reduces the effectiveness of the instrumentarium used by their national governments to respond promptly to permanent changes in key quantitative and qualitative parameters of socio-economic development.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Wajid Ali ◽  
Iftikhar Ahmad

Asymmetries in fiscal policies cannot be captured by linear time series models. In order to examine the asymmetry responses of output in different phases of the business cycle, Markov Regime Switching (MRS) model is an alternative technique that is used to achieve the objective.  The main objective of this study is to empirically explore the effects of fiscal shocks (spending and taxes) on Pakistan’s overall economic activity GDP while utilizing Markov Switching MS-VAR model. The model is characterized to allow for the variation in mean, coefficients and in error variances. The study results show that the effect of shocks and the size of multiplier varies across regimes confirming the asymmetric behavior of fiscal policy transmission mechanism. Moreover, the impact of positive spending shock has a stronger effect on output in the recession as compared to boom. One surprising result of the study is that the tax shock increases the output both in recession and boom. Lastly, spending and revenue behave a-cyclically. JEL Classification Codes: C11; C32; E62


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Firdawss Tahri ◽  
Mohamed Karim

Interest in assessing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic variables, especially on GDP, has surged in recent years, since it was expected to reestablish the economic balance after the recent recession. The majority of empirical studies estimate the impact of fiscal policy on economic activity using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. This paper analyzes the effect of fiscal shocks on economic activity by applying the structural VAR methodology proposed by Blanchard and Perotty (2002) to Moroccan data. The empirical findings are consistent with other studies related to emerging economies. This assessment reveals a positive impact of expansionary fiscal policy on economic activity. However, the fiscal multipliers are found to be very small, meaning that the economic activity is not significantly influenced by fiscal policy shocks.


2008 ◽  
Vol 98 (5) ◽  
pp. 2203-2220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adi Brender ◽  
Allan Drazen

We test whether good economic conditions and expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get reelected in a large panel of democracies. We find no evidence that deficits help reelection in any group of countries independent of income level, level of democracy, or government or electoral system. In developed countries and old democracies, deficits in election years or over the term of office reduce reelection probabilities. Higher growth rates over the term raise reelection probabilities only in developing countries and new democracies. Low inflation is rewarded by voters only in developed countries. These effects are both statistically significant and quite substantial quantitatively. (JEL D72, E62, H62, O47)


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