scholarly journals Projection of Rice Blast Diseases in West Java Region based on Climate Change Scenario

Agromet ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Aji Irsyam N. Sukarta ◽  
Yon Sugiarto ◽  
Yonny Koesmaryono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Common Disease ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
West Java ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Present Simulation

<p>Rice production in Indonesia has faced many challenges including disease outbreak leading to crop failure. Blast is a common disease, which is often found in paddy, that able to inhibit its growth and development. Here, we present simulation modeling to predict blast outbreak under climate change projection scenario in west Java, Indonesia. Two climate projections namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were employed as input for EPIRICE epidemiological model. With this model we anaysed the potency of blast outbreak for 2021-2050. Then we compared the area of the projected blast with the output from current climate condition (1996-2005, as a baseline). Our results show that the potency of blast outbreak was in a low level under baseline. The area indicating a low level of outbreak was observed for both climate projections. Our findings revealed that a decreasing trend on the outbreak is expected for 2021-2050. However, an increased number of area having blast outbreak was observed especially in mountains region as many of 2%.day and 6%.day for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. </p>

Climate change scenario planning for resource stewardship at Wind Cave National Park: Climate change scenario planning summary

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amber Runyon ◽  
Gregor Schuurman ◽  
Brian Miller ◽  
Amy Symstad ◽  
Amanda Hardy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Subject Matter ◽  
National Park ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Strategy Development ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Subject Matter Experts ◽  
Climate Data

This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

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