PENGARUH KUOTA EKSPOR TERHADAP HARGA KARET  DOMESTIK INDONESIA

Abstrak Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme merupakan kebijakan pembatasan kuota ekspor karet alam oleh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Kebijakan ini diduga memengaruhi harga karet alam di tingkat petani. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan kuota ekspor terhadap harga karet alam domestik Indonesia di tingkat petani. Penelitian menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2019 menggunakan Error Correction Model. Dalam jangka panjang, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, konsumsi, produksi dan harga karet alam dunia signifikan. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, dan harga karet alam dunia juga signifikan. Variabel total ekspor dan dummy kebijakan tidak signifikan baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Hal ini diduga karena harga karet alam tidak lagi bergantung pada faktor fundamental tetapi disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal lainnya. Perbaikan diperlukan, termasuk desain kebijakan yang komprehensif, implementasi dan evaluasi teknis yang jelas, serta kolaborasi tambahan dengan produsen karet alam lainnya. Selain itu, sejalan dengan kebijakan pembatasan ekspor, Indonesia perlu mendorong pertumbuhan industri pengolahan karet alam menjadi produk hilir. Kata Kunci: ECM, Karet Alam, Harga Domestik, AETS Abstract Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme is a policy of limiting natural rubber export quotas by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This policy is suspected to affect the price of natural rubber at the farm level. This study aims to analyze the effect of the export quota policy on Indonesia's domestic natural rubber prices at the farm level. The study uses monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 used Error Correction Model. In the long term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rate, consumption, production, and world natural rubber prices are significant. Meanwhile, in the short term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rates, and world price natural rubber were significant. The variable total exports and the policy dummy are not significant both in the long and short term. This is presumably because natural rubber prices no longer depend on fundamental factors but are caused by other external factors. Improvements are needed, including comprehensive policy design, clear technical implementation, and evaluation, as well as additional collaboration with other natural rubber producers. In addition, in line with the export restriction policy, Indonesia needs to encourage the growth of the natural rubber processing industry into downstream products Keywords: ECM, Natural Rubber, Domestic Price, AETS JEL Classification: Q17, Q18, Q21

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Credit Risk Determinants in Indonesia

EFFICIENT Indonesian Journal of Development Economics ◽

10.15294/efficient.v1i2.30153 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 106-115

Author(s):

Amin Yusuf Efendi

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Credit Risk ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Spurious Regression

Credit is the main business of the banking industry, therefore, in running the business, the bank is always overshadowed by the credit risk the which can be determined by the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL). The development of technology, finance digital brings the outside could impact on the financial industry both positive and negative. The purpose of this study was to analyze the interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), a dummy finance digitalization policies in the long term and the short term of the non-performing loan (NPL) of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia The analytical method used in this research is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), The Data used in this research is secondary quarterly time series data from the 2008 quarter 1-2017 4. The time series of data are not stationar Often that can cause spurious regression results, the exact models used is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), This models may explain the behavior of short-term and long-term. The results Showed in the short-term variable interest rates significanly to non-performing loans, while in the long-term variable interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP Significantly, non-performing loans. Kredit merupakan bisnis utama dari industri perbankan, oleh karena itu dalam menjalankan bisnisnya, bank selalu dibayangi oleh risiko kredit yang dapat diketahui melalui rasio non-performing loans (NPL). Perkembangan teknologi, menghadirkan digital finance yang membawa dampak luar bisa terhadap industri keuangan baik positif dan negatif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis suku bunga, inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dummy kebijakan digitalisasi keuangan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek terhadap non-performing loan (NPL) bank umum konvensional di Indonesia Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan dari 2008 kuartal 1 – 2017 kuartal 4. Data runtun waktu sering tidak stationar sehingga bisa menyebabkan hasil regresi palsu (spurious regression), Model yang tepat digunakan adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM), model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek variabel suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non performing loan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel suku bunga, kurs, dan PDB berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non perfoming loan.

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah dalam Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Tahun 2010-2018

Journal of Islamic Economics (JoIE) ◽

10.21154/joie.v1i1.3081 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Nur Afriyanti ◽

Luhur Prasetiyo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Perubahan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang Dollar Amerika Serikat dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor. Di antara faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar adalah kenaikan harga umum (inflasi) dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data Error Correction Model (ECM) dan teknik pemilihan sampel menggunakan sampel jenuh dari populasi yang berjumlah 36. Sampel dalam penelitian ini yaitu data time series/triwulan inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan nilai tukar dengan periode pengamatan selama 9 tahun yaitu tahun 2010-2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar tidak dipengaruhi oleh variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Secara bersama-sama variabel inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel nilai tukar.The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of inflation dan economic growth on Rupiah exchange rate, both long-term and short-term. The movement of Rupiah exchange rate to US Dollar is influenced by many factors. Among the factors affecting the exchange rate are general price increases (inflation) and economic growth. This research uses Error Correction Model (ECM) for data analysis. The population in this study amounted to 36. The sample selection technique is saturated sample. The sample in this research is time series data on quarterly inflation, economic growth and the exchange rate in the period of 9 years, namely 2010-2018. The results show that in the long-term the exchange rate is influenced by inflation and economic growth. Whereas in the short-term the exchange rate is not influenced by inflation and economic growth variables. Furthermore, inflation and economic growth variables have a significant effect on the exchange rate variable.

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The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

Journal of Economics Business and Accountancy Ventura ◽

10.14414/jebav.v22i1.1589 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Erni Panca Kurniasih

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Money Supply ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah

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The Impact of Final Demand arld Prices on Indonesia's Total - Import: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia ◽

10.21002/jepi.v9i2.161 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 109-125

Author(s):

Isbandriyati Mutmainah

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Private Investment ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Final Demand ◽

Cointegration Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Impact

This research is aimed to investigate the influence of final demand and price to Indonesian agregate imports in the long-run and short-run. We use analytical technique cointegration test Iohansen procedures for the long-term influence, and Error Correction Model to estimate the short-term influence, by using quarterly time series data period from_1980 to 2004. From the result of cointegration test and Error Correction Model we found that in the long-term, all of final demand components and price except private investment are important I in determining Indonesian agregate imports. The government expenditure variable has the highest influence, while in the short-term all of independent variables except private consumption are important in determining Indonesian agregate imports and foreign price variable has the highest influence.

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PENGARUH PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, SUKU BUNGA RIIL, DAN PARTISIPASI ANGKATAN KERJA TERHADAP INVESTASI SWASTA DI INDONESIA (Pendekatan Error Correction Model)

Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam ◽

10.24815/jped.v3i1.6988 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Dedy Syahputra ◽

Abubakar Hamzah ◽

Muhammad Nasir

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Error Correction ◽

Labor Force ◽

Private Investment ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Real Interest Rates ◽

Correction Model

This study aimed to analyze the influence of the GDP, the real interest rate, the labor force, the private investment in Indonesia. The data used in this research is time-series data from 2000 to 2014. The research model uses an error correction model (ECM). The results showed in the long term, GDP, labor force and real interest rates have a statistically significant relationship good and theory with a confidence level of 95 percent. In the long-term estimate found that the labor force will greatly affect private investment and the estimated short-term real interest rates affect the amount of investment that will go to Indonesia. In coefficient explained, the labor force has a strong influence and advice foreign investment into the country. For short-term model estimation results indicate GDP and real interest rates significantly affect the labor force in private investment but no significant effect on private investment. However, both long term and short term, variable real interest rates still the basic reason for investing. In result of cointegration explain that the variable GDP, real interest rates, and the laborforce has a cointegration relation to investment in the long term. The government needs to increase investment and promote the economy and set the interest rates are low. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh PDB, tingkat bunga riil, angkatan kerja, terhadap investasi swasta di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time-series tahun 2000 hingga tahun 2014. Model penelitian ini menggunakan Error Corection Model (ECM). Hasil menunjukkan dalam jangka panjang, PDB, angkatan kerja dan suku bunga riil memiliki hubungan signifikan baik statistik dan teori dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen. Pada estimasi jangka panjang ditemukan bahwa angkatan kerja akan sangat mempengaruhi investasi swasta dan estimasi jangka pendek, tingkat suku bunga riil mempengaruhi besarnya investasi yang akan masuk ke Indonesia. Secara koefisien menjelaskan, angkatan kerja memiliki pengaruh yang cukup kuat dan memberi masukan investasi asing ke dalam negeri. Untuk hasil estimasi model jangka pendek menunjukkan PDB dan tingkat bunga riil berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap investasi swasta tetapi angkatan kerja tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investasi swasta. Namun demikian, baik jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, variabel tingkat suku bunga riil masih menjadi alasan dasar untuk berinvestasi. Dalam hasil kointegrasi menjelaskan bahwa variabel PDB, suku bunga riil, dan angkatan kerja memiliki hubungan kointegrasi terhadap investasi dalam jangka panjang. Pemerintah perlu meningkatkan investasi dan memajukan perekonomian serta mengatur suku bunga yang rendah.

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PROFITABILITY OF ISLAMIC MICROFINANCE IN INDONESIA: DOES THE TYPE OF FINANCING MATTER?

Mutanaqishah : Journal of Islamic Banking ◽

10.54045/mutanaqishah.v1i1.306 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 31-38

Author(s):

Chitra Yuliashri Katili ◽

Rifadli D. Kadir

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Significant Influence ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Islamic Microfinance

This study aims to examine the effect of Inflation Variables, CAR, NPF, Murabahah Financing, Mudharabah Financing, and Musyarakah Financing on the Profitability of Sharia BPRs in Indonesia. This study uses time series data from 2016-2020. The data is processed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study concludes that Murabahah Financing Variables have a significant influence and other variables, namely Inflation, CAR, NPF, Mudharabah Financing and Musyarakah Financing have no effect on the Profitability of Sharia BPRs in Indonesia. Thus, the type of financing affects the profitability of Sharia BPR in Indonesia

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Analisis Pengeluaran Sektor Pariwisata terhadap Ketimpangan Upah Tenaga Kerja di Indonesia

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia ◽

10.21002/jepi.v0i0.1074 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 100-118

Author(s):

Lalu Muhammad Azmi Prasetya ◽

M. Pudjihardjo ◽

Nurul Badriyah

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Wage Inequality ◽

Foreign Investment ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Foreign Tourist

This study analyses the effect of foreign tourist expenditure, government expenditure and foreign investment on wage inequality between skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled labour in the Indonesian tourism sector. The study uses time series data with a period of 22 years. The method used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that foreign tourist expenditure and government expenditure increase inequality in the short term, but in the long run can reduce wage inequality. Meanwhile, foreign investment increases inequality both in the short and long term. ================================ Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran wisatawan mancanegara, pengeluaran pemerintah dan investasi asing terhadap ketimpangan upah antara tenaga kerja terampil, semi terampil, dan tidak terampil di sektor pariwisata Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan data time series dengan periode waktu 22 tahun. Metode yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran wisatawan dan pemerintah meningkatkan ketimpangan dalam jangka pendek, namun dalam jangka panjang mampu menurunkan ketimpangan upah. Investasi asing meningkatkan ketimpangan, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.

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Analisis Kekakuan dan Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Tingkat Suku Bunga Perbankan di Indonesia

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi ◽

10.21002/jke.v8i2.26 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 26

Author(s):

Eko Listiyanto ◽

Telisa Aulia Falianty

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Error Correction ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Least Square ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model

ABSTRACTThe research discusses the rigidity of interest rates on deposits and loans to changes in interest rate policies in the three groups of banks in Indonesia, and the factors that influence the interest rates on deposits and loans in the banking system. Rigidity of bank interest rates were analyzed with error correction model approach (Error Correction Model / ECM) using panel data. While the factors that influence the development of the banking interest rates were analyzed with multiple linear regression approach method of Generalized Least Square (GLS) using time series data. The period of data used from July 2005-March 2010.Error Correction Model shows the slackness of interest rates response on deposits and loans toward the policy of interest rate. The rigidity of interest rates on deposits and loans in Indonesia is relatively slow when compared to some other countries.Regression results with GLS method proves that the banking efficiency factor, bad credit and market share significantly influence the interest rates on deposits. While the borrowing rate is influenced by the rate of inflation, capital adequacy ratio, as well as bad credit. The results of this study suggest the importance of watching bad credit factors in making monetary policy because it can affect the interest rates on deposits and lending interest rates. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini membahas kekakuan suku bunga deposito dan pinjaman untuk perubahan kebijakan suku bunga dalam tiga kelompok bank di Indonesia, dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi suku bunga deposito dan pinjaman dalam sistem perbankan. Kekakuan suku bunga perbankan dianalisis dengan pendekatan error correction model (Error Correction Model / ECM) menggunakan data panel. Sedangkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perkembangan suku bunga perbankan dianalisis dengan metode pendekatan regresi linier berganda dari Generalized Least Square (GLS) dengan menggunakan data time series. Periode data yang digunakan dari Juli 2005-Maret 2010.Error Correction Model menunjukkan kelambanan dari suku bunga respon deposito dan pinjaman terhadap kebijakan tingkat suku bunga. Kekakuan suku bunga deposito dan pinjaman di Indonesia relatif lambat jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa negara lain.Hasil regresi dengan metode GLS membuktikan bahwa faktor efisiensi perbankan, kredit macet dan pangsa pasar secara signifikan mempengaruhi suku bunga deposito. Sementara tingkat pinjaman dipengaruhi oleh tingkat inflasi, rasio kecukupan modal, serta kredit macet. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan pentingnya menonton faktor kredit macet dalam membuat kebijakan moneter karena dapat mempengaruhi suku bunga deposito dan suku bunga kredit.

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Moving forward with time series analysis

Research & Politics ◽

10.1177/2053168017732231 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 205316801773223

Author(s):

Peter K. Enns ◽

Nathan J. Kelly ◽

Takaaki Masaki ◽

Patrick C. Wohlfarth

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Error Correction ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Standard Procedures ◽

Cointegration Tests ◽

General Error

In a recent Research and Politics article, we showed that for many types of time series data, concerns about spurious relationships can be overcome by following standard procedures associated with cointegration tests and the general error correction model (GECM). Matthew Lebo and Patrick Kraft (LK) incorrectly argue that our recommended approach will lead researchers to identify false (i.e., spurious) relationships. In this article, we show how LK’s response is incorrect or misleading in multiple ways. Most importantly, when we correct their simulations, their results reinforce our previous findings, highlighting the utility of the GECM when estimated and interpreted correctly.

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