PENGARUH KUOTA EKSPOR TERHADAP HARGA KARET DOMESTIK INDONESIA

Abstrak Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme merupakan kebijakan pembatasan kuota ekspor karet alam oleh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Kebijakan ini diduga memengaruhi harga karet alam di tingkat petani. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan kuota ekspor terhadap harga karet alam domestik Indonesia di tingkat petani. Penelitian menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2019 menggunakan Error Correction Model. Dalam jangka panjang, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, konsumsi, produksi dan harga karet alam dunia signifikan. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, dan harga karet alam dunia juga signifikan. Variabel total ekspor dan dummy kebijakan tidak signifikan baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Hal ini diduga karena harga karet alam tidak lagi bergantung pada faktor fundamental tetapi disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal lainnya. Perbaikan diperlukan, termasuk desain kebijakan yang komprehensif, implementasi dan evaluasi teknis yang jelas, serta kolaborasi tambahan dengan produsen karet alam lainnya. Selain itu, sejalan dengan kebijakan pembatasan ekspor, Indonesia perlu mendorong pertumbuhan industri pengolahan karet alam menjadi produk hilir. Kata Kunci: ECM, Karet Alam, Harga Domestik, AETS Abstract Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme is a policy of limiting natural rubber export quotas by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This policy is suspected to affect the price of natural rubber at the farm level. This study aims to analyze the effect of the export quota policy on Indonesia's domestic natural rubber prices at the farm level. The study uses monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 used Error Correction Model. In the long term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rate, consumption, production, and world natural rubber prices are significant. Meanwhile, in the short term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rates, and world price natural rubber were significant. The variable total exports and the policy dummy are not significant both in the long and short term. This is presumably because natural rubber prices no longer depend on fundamental factors but are caused by other external factors. Improvements are needed, including comprehensive policy design, clear technical implementation, and evaluation, as well as additional collaboration with other natural rubber producers. In addition, in line with the export restriction policy, Indonesia needs to encourage the growth of the natural rubber processing industry into downstream products Keywords: ECM, Natural Rubber, Domestic Price, AETS JEL Classification: Q17, Q18, Q21

Export Restrictions of Indonesian Nickel Ore Based on the Perspective of Quantitative Restriction Principles in General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

This study aims to determine whether Indonesia’s nickel ore export restriction policy is in accordance with the principles of international economic law. It is because Indonesia’s actions in implementing quantitative restrictions on the export of nickel ore are deemed to have violated one of the principles in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, namely the principle of prohibiting quantitative restrictions. This principle is contained in Article XI: 1 GATT. Data was collected through library research techniques. Namely by collecting and analyzing writings and literatures that are closely related to the problems that are being researched by the author, and analyzing data with descriptive analytical techniques, so that Indonesia can analyze their export restriction policies with juridical provisions in international trade law. The results shows that Indonesia’s action is in accordance with Article XI: 2 (a), which regulates the exception to Article XI: 1, with certain conditions which is a dispensation from the principle of quantitative restriction. Indonesia’s nickel ore export restrictions were also implemented to protect the environment in order to prevent scarcity and to encourage the battery industry in Indonesia to improve the economy. So that Indonesian policy is valid and can be justified by international law.

Establishing criteria for the management of tephritid fruit fly outbreaks

Tephritid fruit flies (Diptera; Tephritidae) represent a group of insects that include some of the most economically important pests in horticulture. Because of their economic importance, the financial impacts of an incursion of tephritid fruit flies into a new area can often result in restrictions to trade. The economic impacts of any trade restrictions imposed by importing countries are confounded by the current absence of consistent and accepted criteria for the strength and extent of any trade restrictions and declaring the end of an incursion. The author has developed models that can be used to establish criteria for the management of tephritid fruit fly outbreaks as outlined in international standards. A model enables criteria on when to recognise an incursion has occurred and establish export restrictions. Another model determines what area or radius an export restriction zone (ERZ) should cover. And a third model establishes criteria for the conditions required to enable an ERZ to be rescinded and the area’s pest free status reinstated. The models rely primarily on fruit fly biology and the effectiveness of surveillance trapping systems. The adoption of these proposed criteria internationally for establishing a control system and responding to fruit fly outbreaks would provide considerable economic benefits to international trade. Additionally, these criteria would enable countries to make more informed cost–benefit decisions on the level of investment in fruit fly control systems that better reflects the economic risks fruit flies represent to their economy.

Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network

International food trade is an integral part of the food system, and the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of external food supplies. Based on the perspective of cereals trade networks (CTN), the pandemic risk is combined with the trade intensity between countries, and an assessment model of cereals external supply risk is constructed that includes external dependence index (EDI), import concentration, and risk of COVID-19 from import countries index (RICI). The results show that: (1) the global main CTN have typical scale-free characteristics, and seven communities are detected under the influence of the core countries; (2) about 60%, 50%, and 70% of countries face risks of medium and above (high and very high) external dependence, concentration of imports, and COVID-19 in the country of origin, respectively. Under the influence of the pandemic, the risk of global external cereal supply index (RECSI) has increased by 65%, and the USA-CAN communities show the highest risk index; (3) the countries with a very high risk are mainly the Pacific island countries and the Latin American and African countries. In addition, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and 80% of the net food-importing developing countries are at high or very high RECSI levels. Approximately 50% of countries belong to the compound risk type, and many export countries belong to the RICI risk type; (4) global external food supply is subjected to multiple potential threats such as trade interruption, “price crisis”, and “payment dilemma”. The geographical proximity of community members and the geographical proximity of the pandemic risk is superimposed, increasing the regional risk of external food supply; and (5) this study confirms that the food-exporting countries should avoid the adoption of food export restriction measures and can prevent potential external supply risks from the dimensions of maintaining global food liquidity and promoting diversification of import sources. We believe that our assessment model of cereals external supply risk comprises a useful method for investigations regarding the international CTN or global food crisis under the background of the pandemic.

ANALISIS DAMPAK EXPORT RESTRICTION KOMODITI PERTANIAN TERHADAP INDONESIA

The discussion on Restrictions on Agricultural Exports (ER) in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which is a mechanism to temporarily stop the export of agricultural products aimed at preventing food shortages in exporting countries has been intensively negotiated. However, as a net importer of agricultural products and a member of the G33 countries, Indonesia must overcome the ER policy because it might have the potential to increase prices and threaten food security in the Indonesian domestic market. This study uses descriptive qualitative statistical analysis to determine the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR) and Independence Ratio (SSR) for five of Indonesia's main import agricultural products such as rice, corn, soybeans, wheat, and horticulture. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis using GTAP ver.9 is also used to analyze the impact of restrictions on exports of agricultural products for the five products analyzed on macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. Based on IDR and SSR it can be concluded that almost all G33 countries are highly dependent on wheat imports, as many as 36 countries are dependent on imported wheat with IDR values ​​varying between 70% - 215%. The analysis shows that export restrictions will harm Indonesia's macroeconomic. However, by sector, Indonesian farmers and producers can take advantage of the impact of the export restriction policy as an opportunity to increase their production in the context of meeting domestic demand as a result of declining demand for imported food products in the country.

Diversification of Polish agri-food trade

The embargo introduced in August 2014 by Russia on the food products imported from the European Union caused a strong decline in sales of food from Poland in this country. The aim of the article is to analyse the current trends and prospects of development of Polish agrifood trade with the EU and non-EU countries in 2013-2016. A special attention was paid on changes in geographical structure and the level of diversification of Polish food exports as a result of the export restriction. The analysis shows that the situation on the Russian market influenced the growth of the food exports from Poland both to the EU and non-UE markets. In the recent years, the role of third countries in Polish exports of agri-food products has steadily increased, however the trade with these countries is still relatively low and concentrated on selected products.

Dampak Bea Keluar Kakao Indonesia terhadap Country Market Power di Pasar Biji Kakao Amerika Serikat dan Terms of Trade

<em>As the world’s third-largest cocoa beans producer, Indonesia is expected to have a comparative advantage and to become cocoa beans price reference. This research investigates market power of Indonesia cocoa beans export for the United State market as an impact of an export tax. Five cocoa beans exporting countries namely Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador, Ghana, Dominica Rep and Nigeria are calculated their market power as Indonesia’s competitors by estimating residual demand elasticity with two stage least square method. The results show that Indonesia’s market power suffered after imposing the export tax. Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana get advantages from this export restriction. The effect of export tax on welfare is analyzed by calculating terms of trade. The gain from cocoa beans trade depicts a declining terms of trade for dealing with the international cocoa beans market.</em>