scholarly journals DAMPAK PERJANJIAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA - JEPANG (IJEPA) TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN BILATERAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-151
Author(s):  
Septika Tri Ardiyanti
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Monitoring Scheme ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Impact

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji dampak perjanjian Indonesia – Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) terhadap perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-Jepang dari sisi ekspor maupun impor, dengan menggunakan data bulanan Januari 1990 sampai dengan Juni 2014. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan counterfactual dengan melakukan ekstrapolasi terhadap data perdagangan tanpa FTA (basis ekstrapolasi Jan 1990-Juni 2008) dan kemudian membandingkannya dengan data perdagangan aktual pada saat IJEPA telah diimplementasikan (Juli 2008-Juni 2014). Ekstrapolasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), sementara untuk menguji perbedaan antara kedua pengamatan data aktual dengan data ekstrapolasi digunakan uji t -berpasangan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa IJEPA secara signifikan mampu meningkatkan nilai ekspor non migas Indonesia ke Jepang, namun tidak memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap peningkatan nilai impor non migas Indonesia dari Jepang. Dengan demikian, Indonesia terbukti mendapatkan keuntungan dari sisi perdagangan karena mampu meningkatkan nilai ekspornya ke Jepang. Oleh karena itu, kerjasama yang intensif antara kedua negara harus terus ditingkatkan untuk mengoptimalkan perjanjian tersebut. Pemerintah dapat mengusulkan adanya bilateral monitoring scheme kepada pemerintah Jepang dalam rangka meningkatkan pemanfaatan IJEPA. This study aims at examining the impact of Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) towards bilateral trade between Indonesia and Japan, using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2014. This research used a counterfactual approach by constructing extrapolated trade values with pre-FTA data (extrapolation based on January 1990-June 2008), then comparing those extrapolated data with the actual trade data in the period after the implementation of IJEPA (July 2008-June 2014). The extrapolation was done using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, while paired t-test was used to examine the difference between the actual data and the extrapolated data. The results show that IJEPA can significantly increase the value of Indonesia’s non-oil exports to Japan, but it has no significant impact on the value of Indonesia’s non-oil imports from Japan. It is proven that Indonesia gets benefits from IJEPA in terms of foreign trade since it can increase its export value to Japan. Therefore, intensive cooperation between Indonesia and Japan should be improved by proposing a bilateral monitoring scheme to the Japanese government in order to improve the functions of IJEPA.

scholarly journals Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0250149
Author(s):  
Fuad A. Awwad ◽  
Moataz A. Mohamoud ◽  
Mohamed R. Abonazel
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.

scholarly journals The Impact of Lengths of Time Series on the Accuracy of the ARIMA Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Lu Qin ◽  
Kyle Shanks ◽  
Glenn Allen Phillips ◽  
Daphne Bernard
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Enrollment Forecasting ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Impact

The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) is a popular time-series model used to predict future trends in economics, energy markets, and stock markets. It has not been widely applied to enrollment forecasting in higher education. The accuracy of the ARIMA model heavily relies on the length of time series. Researchers and practitioners often utilize the most recent - to -years of historical data to predict future enrollment; however, the accuracy of enrollment projection under different lengths of time series has never been investigated and compared. A simulation and an empirical study were conducted to thoroughly investigate the accuracy of ARIMA forecasting under four different lengths of time series. When the ARIMA model completely captured the historical changing trajectories, it provided the most accurate predictions of student enrollment with 20-years of historical data and had the lowest forecasting accuracy with the shortest time series. The results of this paper contribute as a reference to studies in the enrollment projection and time-series forecasting. It provides a practical impact on enrollment strategies, budges plans, and financial aid policies at colleges and institutions across countries.

Trade Agreement as a Model of Development: The Case of the Japan-Philippine Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Al Faithrich Navarrete ◽  
Virgilio Tatlonghari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Modified Gravity ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA) includes comprehensive provisions that aims to foster economic growth. The provision on Tariff Elimination is expected to increase trade between the two countries. A modified Gravity Model was used in order to estimate the impact of Tariff Elimination to Exports of the Philippines to Japan using the weighted average of tariffs imposed by Japan to Philippine Exports. While a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) was utilized to estimate its impact to Economic Development. Using quarterly data from 2001 to 2013, results shows that although the agreement is able to statistically increase exports of the Philippines to Japan, it may not be enough to induce significant Economic Growth to the Philippines.

scholarly journals Policies to Reduce Antibiotic Consumption: The Impact in the Basque Country

Antibiotics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
Paula Rojas ◽  
Fernando Antoñanzas
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Resistance ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Antibiotic Consumption ◽  
Line Treatment ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Drug Packaging ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

In 2013, a change in copayment rate was introduced in the Basque Country (one year later than in the other regions in Spain), and improvements were made to drug packaging. In 2014, a National Program Against Bacterial Resistance (Spanish abbreviation: PRAN) was approved. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of change to the copayment rate, the adjustment of drug packaging, and the approval of PRAN on the consumption of antibiotics. Raw monthly data on the consumption of antibiotics (costs, packages, and daily defined doses per thousand people (DID)) were collected from January 2009 to December 2018 in the Basque Country. Counterfactual and intervention analysis (Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model) was performed for the total series, disaggregated by group of antibiotics (2019 WHO Access, Watch, and Reserve (AWaRe) Classification) and active substances with the highest cost per prescription (cefditoren and moxifloxacin), the lowest cost per prescription (doxycycline and cloxacillin), and the most prescribed active ingredients (amoxicillin, azithromycin, and levofloxacin). Introduction of copayment led to a ‘stockpiling effect’ one month before its implementation, equal to 8% in the three consumption series analyzed. Only the adjustment of drug packaging significantly reduced the number of packages dispensed (−12.19%). PRAN approval reduced consumption by 0.779 DID (−4.51%), representing a significant decrease for both ’access’ and ’watch’ group antibiotics. Despite the delay in implementing changes to copayment, there was a ‘stockpiling effect’. With the adjustment of packaging, fewer packs were prescribed but with a higher drug load and price. PRAN approval reduced both the consumption of ’access group antibiotics’ (first-line treatment) and ’watch group antibiotics’ (second-line treatment).

IJEPA: Gray Area for Health Policy and International Nurse Migration

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferry Efendi ◽  
Timothy Ken Mackey ◽  
Mei-Chih Huang ◽  
Ching-Min Chen
Keyword(s):  
Health Worker ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Healthcare Access ◽  
Nurse Migration ◽  
Policy Proposal ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Health Worker Migration

Indonesia is recognized as a nurse exporting country, with policies that encourage nursing professionals to emigrate abroad. This includes the country’s adoption of international principles attempting to protect Indonesian nurses that emigrate as well as the country’s own participation in a bilateral trade and investment agreement, known as the Indonesia–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement that facilitates Indonesian nurse migration to Japan. Despite the potential trade and employment benefits from sending nurses abroad under the Indonesia–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, Indonesia itself is suffering from a crisis in nursing capacity and ensuring adequate healthcare access for its own populations. This represents a distinct challenge for Indonesia in appropriately balancing domestic health workforce needs, employment, and training opportunities for Indonesian nurses, and the need to acknowledge the rights of nurses to freely migrate abroad. Hence, this article reviews the complex operational and ethical issues associated with Indonesian health worker migration under the Indonesia–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. It also introduces a policy proposal to improve performance of the Indonesia–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement and better align it with international principles focused on equitable health worker migration.

scholarly journals Effects of Tariff Concessions on Japanese Beef Imports by Product and Source

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 158-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Muhammad ◽  
Amanda M. Countryman ◽  
Kari E. R. Heerman
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tariff Reductions ◽  
The U.S

Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could be costly for U.S. beef exports to Japan given existing trade agreements such as the Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA). We estimate the demand for imported beef in Japan by source and product and assess the impact of tariff reductions on exporting countries. Our results suggest JAEPA will result in considerable increases in Australian beef exports to Japan, largely at the expense of the U.S. beef. However, similar tariff reductions for U.S. beef could eliminate these negative effects and even result in a net increase in beef imports from both countries.

DIPLOMASI EKONOMI JEPANG DALAM UPAYA PERPINDAHAN LIMBAH B3 MELALUI INDONESIA-JAPAN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IJEPA)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
Nurshinta Anggia Anggraeni
Keyword(s):  
Waste Management ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
Hazardous Waste ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Toxic Waste ◽  
Hazardous Waste Management ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>The development of Japan's industrial sector triggered the generation of toxic and hazardous waste as its consequences which endangered the environment and human’s health. The high cost of waste management and limited land disposal encourages transboundary movement to developing countries. Although it has been monitored by the Basel Convention which ban toxic waste movement, Japan still find the loophole by using Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) as an instrument to transfer domestic waste abroad. This study will use the theory of economic diplomacy and issue linkage concept to observe Japan's diplomacy in reaching an agreement on reducing toxic and hazardous waste tariff with Indonesia in IJEPA. The result shows that Japan bartered the issue by offering capacity building compensation.  Those are consisting of investment on toxic and hazardous waste management facilities and the development of hazardous waste recycling market in Indonesia. Through the compensation, reduction tariff of hazardous waste could be achieved by Japan to continue its transboundary movement and reduce the impact of domestic environmental pollution, while still accommodating the interests of Indonesia in terms of capacity building towards hazardous waste management.</em></p>

scholarly journals The impact of the economic partnership agreement with the European union on the agricultural trade of Sudan

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-89
Author(s):  
Imad Eldin Elfadil Abdel karim Yousif ◽  
◽  
Azharia Elbushra ◽  
Azhari Ibrahim ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Impact
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