scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis and its future projection over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) region of India during post-monsoon and winter season

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1152-1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pramiti Kumar Chakraborty ◽  
Lalu Das
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Future Projection ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Increasing Trend

Studying the variability of rainfall and its future projection during post-monsoon and winter season is important for providing the information to the farmers regarding crop planning. For evaluating rainfall scenario, long (1901-2005) and short term (1961-2005 and 1991-2005) rainfall data of nine selected IMD stations of South Bengalwas collected and subdivided into 30 year period up to 1990 and a 15 year period from 1991 to 2005. The data were subjected to trend analysis and available GCM data were compared with the observed rainfall data. The postmonsoon and winter rainfall changes during 1901-2005 were positive (except Krishnangar, -47.67 mm) and negative (except Alipore and Berhampur) respectively. During 1991-2005 all the stations recorded a positive change during post-monsoon, while reverse was true for winter. Among the different GCMs, INGV-ECHM4 estimated the postmonsoon rainfall at the best, whereas winter rainfall successfully estimated by MIROC-Hi. Future projection of both post-monsoon and winter rainfall over the region showed an increasing trend. This will help in policy formulation for water management in agriculture.

scholarly journals Annual and seasonal variability of wet day frequency in West Bengal, India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-722
Author(s):  
S. G. PATIL ◽  
A. MAJUMDER
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Parametric Approach ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Coefficient Of Skewness ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis

The monthly wet day frequency data of West Bengal for period 1901-2000 were analyzed to know annual and seasonal variability over decades along with annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter trends. The non-parametric approach (Mann-Kendall) revealed that the most of the districts shows the decreasing trend during monsoon and increasing trend during pre, post monsoon and in winter season. The changes observed in the statistical parameters (mean, SD, coefficient of skewness and kurtosis) during different decades which reflect the changing pattern of wet-day frequency in West Bengal.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali ◽  
Kuriqi ◽  
Abubaker ◽  
Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Minimum Flow ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Innovative Trend Analysis ◽  
Increasing Trend

Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3/s and −17.37 m3/s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3/s and 16.37 m3/s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale, the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

scholarly journals Seasonal Trend Analysis in Rainfall and Temperature for Udaipur District of Rajasthan

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 312-319
Author(s):  
Vaibhav Deoli ◽  
Saroj Rana
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Level Of Significance

The present study is mainly focused on to detection of changing trend in rainfall and temperature for Udaipur district situated in the Rajasthan state of India. The district situated in the western part of India which obtained less rainfall as compared with the average rainfall of India. In the present article, the approach has been tried to analysis to detect rainfall trend, maximum temperature trend and minimum temperature trend for the area. For this daily rainfall data of 39 years (1975 to 2013) add seasonally and the temperature has been calculated by averaging of daily temperature for a period of 39 years. For determining the trend the year has been shared out into four seasons like the winter season, pre-monsoon season, monsoon season and post-monsoon season. To obtained magnitude of trend San’s slope estimator test has been used and for significance in trend Mann-Kendall statistics test has been applied. The results obtained for the study show significantly decreasing rainfall trend for the season winter and season post-monsoon whereas pre-monsoon and monsoon show increasing rainfall trend. The maximum temperature of pre-monsoon and monsoon months shows a significantly increasing trend whereas, in minimum temperature, winter season and pre-monsoon season shows an increasing trend which is significant at 10% level of significance and post-monsoon shows a decreasing trend which is also significant at 10% level of significance.

scholarly journals Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 238-253
Author(s):  
Dr. Sumit M. Dhak
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

Abstract: A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen’s slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 – 2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in Jawhar, Vikramgad, Wada, Talasari, Palghar, Mokhada and Dahanu; whereas Vasai tehsil rainfall trend was decreased in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998 -2019. Keywords: Rainfall, Trend Analysis, Mann Kendall’s Test, Sen Slopes, Regression

scholarly journals Evaluation of Lake Simcoe watershed rainfall characterisics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabi C. Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Daily Rainfall Data ◽  
Average Annual Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Lake Simcoe

Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority is monitoring the phosphorous loading in Lake Simcoe and to understand the changes in phosphorous loading due to runoff, it is prudent to characterize the rainfall data of the watershed contributing to Lake Simcoe. In this project, hourly and daily rainfall data from 13 different raingage statistics surrounding Lake Simcoe was analyzed to identify event, monthly, seasonal and annual statistics and their trend and thereby to identify the driest and wettest and average annual rainfall. After initial analysis, daily rainfall data from only 4 stations with consistent data for an approximate period of 20 years were chosen for further analysis. The results showed that hydrological year 1995-1996 was the wettest and hydrologic year 1991-1992 was the driest year. Similarly summer season and the month of June were the wettest and winter season and month of February were the driest for the watershed. No significant trend was observed in the yearly and monthly rainfall data while an increasing trend was observed at 3 stations for the winter season.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Best Fitted Probabilistic Model for the Seasonal Rainfall Data in Khulna Region of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
K. Fatema ◽  
Muhammad Habibulla Alamin ◽  
M. Zahid Hasan ◽  
M. Murad Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Similar Amount ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Best Fit

There are several pieces of research on the statistical modeling of rainfall data in Bangladesh. Since all the seasons of a year do not receive a similar amount of rainfall, hence one single statistical model might not be able to explain the pattern of rainfall at any season of a year. According to the climatologists, Bangladesh has four seasons which are Monsoon, Post-monsoon, Summer, and Winter based on the geographical characteristics of this country. This paper aims to determine the best-fitted probability distribution model for the monthly rainfall data of each particular season in the Khulna district of Bangladesh using the rainfall data of the Khulna region from 1951 to 2018. Very commonly used seven continuous distributions- Normal, Weibull, Gamma, Log-normal, Exponential, Cauchy, and Logistic distributions were used to model the data and to evaluate the performances of the distributions, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests were conducted, and AIC, BIC values were calculated. Parameters of the distributions were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The best-fit result of each season was taken as the distribution with the lowest AIC and BIC values. Among the seven distributions, the Gamma distribution showed the best-fit results of the monthly rainfall data for the Monsoon, Post-Monsoon, and Winter Season, and the Weibull distribution showed the best-fit result for Summer Season.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Lake Simcoe watershed rainfall characterisics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabi C. Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Daily Rainfall Data ◽  
Average Annual Rainfall ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Lake Simcoe

Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority is monitoring the phosphorous loading in Lake Simcoe and to understand the changes in phosphorous loading due to runoff, it is prudent to characterize the rainfall data of the watershed contributing to Lake Simcoe. In this project, hourly and daily rainfall data from 13 different raingage statistics surrounding Lake Simcoe was analyzed to identify event, monthly, seasonal and annual statistics and their trend and thereby to identify the driest and wettest and average annual rainfall. After initial analysis, daily rainfall data from only 4 stations with consistent data for an approximate period of 20 years were chosen for further analysis. The results showed that hydrological year 1995-1996 was the wettest and hydrologic year 1991-1992 was the driest year. Similarly summer season and the month of June were the wettest and winter season and month of February were the driest for the watershed. No significant trend was observed in the yearly and monthly rainfall data while an increasing trend was observed at 3 stations for the winter season.

Changes in tobacco depictions after implementation of tobacco-free film and TV rules in Bollywood films in India: a trend analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056629
Author(s):  
Gaurang P Nazar ◽  
Monika Arora ◽  
Nitika Sharma ◽  
Surbhi Shrivastava ◽  
Tina Rawal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Poisson Regression Analysis ◽  
Free Film ◽  
Rule Compliance ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Year 2013

BackgroundIndia’s tobacco-free film and TV rules were implemented from 2012. To assess the effect of the rules, we studied tobacco depictions in top-grossing Bollywood films released between 2006 and 2017 and rule compliance after 2012.MethodsTobacco incidents and brand appearances were coded in 240 top-grossing Bollywood films (2006–2017) using the Breathe California method. Trends in number of tobacco incidents per film per year were studied before and after implementation of the rules using Poisson regression analysis. Compliance with rules over the years was studied using Pearson product-moment correlations.ResultsForty-five films were U-rated (all ages), 162 were UA-rated (below age 12 years must be adult-accompanied), and 33 were A-rated (age 18+ years only). Before implementation of the rules, the number of tobacco incidents per film was increasing by a factor of 1.1/year (95% CI 1.0 to 1.2, p=0.002). However, beginning year 2013, the number of incidents per film started falling significantly by a factor of 0.7/year (95% CI 0.6 to 0.9; p=0.012) compared with the previous increasing trend. The percentage of youth-rated (U and UA) films with any tobacco incidents also declined from a peak of 76% in 2012 to 35% in 2017. The percentage of films complying with the rules (audio-visual disclaimers, health spots, static warnings) did not change significantly from 2012 to 2017.ConclusionIndia’s 2012 rules were followed by a reduction in tobacco depictions in Bollywood films. Enhanced monitoring of compliance is needed to ensure the continued effectiveness of the rules.

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