Long term monthly and inter-seasonal weather variability analysis for the lower Shivalik foothills of Punjab

This paper aims to study the long-term trends in different weather parameters, i.e., temperature, rainfall, rainy days, sunshine hours, evaporation, relative humidity and temperature over Lower Shivalik foothills of Punjab. The daily weather data of about 35 years from agrometeorological observatory of Regional Research Station Ballowal Saunkhri representing Lower Shivalik foothills had been used for trend analysis for kharif (May - October), rabi (November - April), winter (January - February), pre-monsoon (March - May), monsoon (June - September) and post monsoon (October - December) season. The linear regression method has been used to estimate the magnitude of change per year and its coefficient of determination, whose statistical significance was checked by the F test. The annual maximum temperature, morning and evening relative humidity has increased whereas rainfall, evaporation sunshine hours and wind speed has decreased significantly at this region. No significant change in annual minimum temperature and diurnal range has been observed. Monthly maximum temperature revealed significant increase except January, June and December, whereas, monthly minimum temperature increased significantly for February, March and October and decreased for June. Among different seasons, maximum temperature increased significantly for all seasons except winter season, whereas, minimum temperature increased significantly for kharif and post monsoon season only. The evaporation, sunshine hours and wind speed have also decreased and relative humidity decreased significantly at this region. Significant reduction in kharif, monsoon and post monsoon rainfall has been observed at Lower Shivalik foothills. As the region lacks assured irrigation facilities so decreasing rainfall and change in the other weather parameters will have profound effects on the agriculture in this region so there is need to develop climate resilient agricultural technologies.

Monsoon, post monsoon rainy days analysis by using normal, binomial distribution and discrete probability for south Gujarat

The analysis will be conducted for standard weekly (SW) 22 to 47 of monsoon and post monsoon season at south Gujarat. The standard weekly rainy days analysis of binomial distribution for monsoon season of Navsari on chi-square test on binomial distribution was found in standard week (SW) 22 to 31, 33 and standard week (SW) 35 to 39 and post monsoon in standard week (SW) 41 to 44 shows significant. The result also reveals that the monsoon season SW 32 and 34 and post monsoon season SW 40, 45, 46 and 47 revealed non-significant result. Analysis reveals the rainfall is not equally distributed during SW 32, 34, 40, 45, 16 and 47, so that the test of binomial distribution is a good fit. Monsoon season rainfall data of Navsari, Bharuch and Valsad reveals that the normal distribution at 10, 20 and 30% probability levels for the month of June, July, August and September shows the possibility of increasing rainy days occurrence. The Navsari and Bharuch districts during post monsoon season rainfall of months of October and November reveals decreasing tendency except Valsad district. The binomial distribution fit only those standard weeks in which rainfall is not equally distributed. The standard weekly rainy days analysis of binomial distribution on chi-square test in Bharuch was found that standard week (SW) 25 only 10% of monsoon season and in post monsoon standard week (SW) 42 and 47 shows non significant (5 and 10% level of significant) result, but SW 25 found significant at 5% level. In case of Valsad district, standard week 22 to 39 of monsoon season and in post monsoon season 41, 42, 43 and 46 standard weeks shows significant result. The result reveals that the monsoon season of Bharuch standard weeks 22 to 39 except from 25 and post monsoon 40, 41, 43, 44, 45 and 46 shows significant result. Further, in Valsad district standard weeks 40, 44, 45 and 47 shows significant result. The trend analysis of rainy days shows that increasing trend in monsoon season and decreasing trend in post monsoon season of Navsari, Bharuch and Valsad districts. From above results observed that the rainfall distribution is not equally distributed so test of binomial distribution at above given standard week is a good fit. The data also shows that, decreasing tendency in rainfall was observed except Valsad district.

Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere at Gorakhpur with respect to air pollution

The present study aims at seasonal and diurnal pollution potential at Gorakhpur in east Uttar Pradesh. To assess the pollution potential, meteorological data for five year period (1982-86) of Gorakhpur have been analyzed for four seasons viz; winter (December-February), summer (March-May), monsoon (June-September) and post monsoon (October-November). Season wise wind roses, stability, stability wind roses have been prepared and season wise diurnal variation of mixing height and ventilation coefficient have also been worked out. It is found that Gorakhpur has a better diffusion capacity in summer and poor in post monsoon followed by winter. Afternoon hours are better for vertical mixing. The winds are predominantly from southwest to west in all seasons except in monsoon when it blows from northeast to east. Based on this study, an appropriate location for industrialization has been suggested.

Recent trends in climate of Bangalore

The linear trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, diurnal range of temperature, rainfall, relative humidities at 0830 & 1730 hr IST of Bangalore city and airport have been analysed based on the data for the period from 1960-95. The variation in surface wind over Bangalore during above period has also been studied to find out impact of urbanisation on weather parameters. It is found that Bangalore city is becoming warmer in terms of mean maximum & mean minimum temperatures. Rate of increase is significantly higher over Bangalore city (central observatory) than that over airport during winter months. Similarly the rising trend of average temperature of Bangalore city is higher than of Bangalore airport during October to April being significantly so during winter season. Also the diurnal range of temperature of Bangalore is becoming larger in winter months with the rising trend being higher over Bangalore city than over airport. Even though rainfall does not show any significant trend, the rising trend during monsoon & falling trend during post monsoon season over Bangalore city are higher than that of Bangalore airport. Also though both Bangalore city & airport show maximum rising trend in mean relative humidity at 0830 hr IST during winter, the rate of rise is less over Bangalore city. Similarly though the relative humidity at 1730 hr IST shows decreasing trend during all the seasons, the rate of decrease is less over Bangalore city for all seasons except post monsoon season. The mean maximum, minimum and average temperatures and relative humidities show cyclic variation of their monthly trend coefficients during the year.

Wind and wave regime over the Bombay high area under the influence of cyclonic storms

Temporal distributions of wind and wave over Bombay High Area (BHA) during cyclone period have been studied. Ten years’ (1990-99) data of BHA during cyclone period have been used. It is found that under the influence of cyclonic storms strong southwesterly winds prevail over the BHA in pre-monsoon and weaker east to southeasterly winds during post-monsoon. Southwesterly wave with heights exceeding 20 feet are encountered in BHA during pre-monsoon and south easterlies with wave height reaching up to 12 feet in post monsoon. Analysis of situations with different storm locations also yielded similar results. Relationships between wind speeds and wave height as well as the distance of the storm centre over BHA have been established.

A study of evening convective clouds over Kochi and neighbourhood

Radar echoes of 0900 and 1100 UTC over Kochi and 200 km around were studied from 1996 to 1999 along with SST of southeast Arabian Sea and Kochi. The following results are obtained : Monsoon convective cloud tops were lower than Pre-monsoon and Post-monsoon convective cloud tops. (ii) In the mean, monsoon cloud tops gradually increased from 1996 to 1998 and then decreased. (iii) Very large convective activity existed during August 1997 to June 1998 compared to other periods of this study. Seasonally the higher the SST, the higher is convective cloud top. (v) Interannually, large positive SST anomaly coincided with high convective activity and this may be related to then prevailing El Nino.

Multi-Model Assessment of Streamflow Simulations under Climate and Anthropogenic Changes Exemplified in Two Indian River Basins

This study aims to evaluate the climate- and human-induced impacts on two contrasting river basins in India, specifically, the Ganges and the Godavari. Monthly discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs), run with and without human influence using CMIP5 projections under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, are utilized to address the scientific questions related to the quantification of the future impacts of climate change and the historical impacts of human activities on these river basins. The five state-of-the-art GHMs were considered and subsequently used to evaluate the human and climate change impacts on river discharges (seasonal mean discharge and extreme flows) during the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Results showed that human impacts during the baseline period on long-term seasonal discharge in the Ganges and Godavari River basins for the pre-monsoon season are around 40% and 23%, respectively, and these impacts are stronger than the future climate change impact in the pre-monsoon season for the Ganges basin, whereas, for the Godavari basin, the same pattern is observed with some exceptions. The human impact in the course of the historical period on the pre-monsoon flows of both the Ganges and the Godavari are more significant than on the monsoon and post-monsoon flows. In the near future (2010–39) time slice, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Ganges is highest for the post-monsoon season (13.4%) under RCP 8.5 as compared to other seasons. For Godavari, in the near-future period, this impact is highest for the pre-monsoon season (18.2%) under RCP 2.6. Climate-induced changes in both of the basins during both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons is observed to have a higher impact on future flows than direct human impact-induced changes to flow during the current period. High flows (31.4% and 19.9%) and low flows (51.2% and 36.8%) gain greater influence due to anthropogenic actions in the time of the pre-monsoon season compared to other times of year for the Ganges and Godavari basins, respectively. High flows for the Ganges during the near future time slice are most affected in the monsoon season (15.8%) under RCP 8.5 and, in the case of the Godavari, in the pre-monsoon season (18.4%) under the RCP 2.6 scenario. Low flows of the Ganges during the near-future period are most affected during the monsoon season (22.3%) and for the Godavari, low flows are affected most for the post-monsoon season (22.1%) under RCP 2.6. Uncertainty in the streamflow estimates is more pronounced for the Godavari basin compared to the Ganges basin. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of the natural and human-influenced flow regimes in these river basins, which helps the formation of future strategies, especially for inter-state and transboundary river management.

TERRESTRIAL RADIANT ENERGY EXCHANGES ACROSS TROPOPAUSE OVER PUNE

Fort nightly auuusphe ric sound ings """ilh radiomete r are bei ng made al Pu ne after th e sunset Thedam obtained o ver an (" iih t yea r pe riod. 1978-1985 an d on occasions ....'hen th ese so unl.Hnis reac hed stratosp hereh aw bee n studied in o rde r 10 obta in a pictu re of th e terr estri al radiant ene rgy excha nges (infrared rad iative !luxexchanges) Berms the tropopause. It is Iound th ai th e tropopause .:ene raJly loses energy almust th rough out the yearexceru du ring the monso on period . Th e net lo ss in rad iant euC' rgy by the tropo pause is 1.4Wm - ~. Th e losses in th epre-monsoo n and th e post -monsoon pe riod s are respectivel y 3.4 Wm - =an d 41 Wrn - ~ . whereas the gai n du ring th emonsoon .'Il!'IIS(ln is 5.2 Wm - : . Winh' r losses amo um rc 6.ft Wm - ~ , These valu es. however, vary wide ly in individualca ses depc nding upon th e sky cover. ROl l the d epth nf water vapo ur ..:o lumo .