Climate change and food security in tropical West Africa – a dynamic-statistical modelling approach

Erdkunde ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Paeth ◽  
Arcade Capo-Chichi ◽  
Wilfried Endlicher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

scholarly journals New Findings on Food Security, Climate Change and Income Growth in West African Countries: P-VAR Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (31) ◽  
pp. 241
Author(s):  
Olabode Philip Olofin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
West African ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
African Countries ◽  
New Findings

This paper examines empirically the interaction among per capita income growth, climate change and food security in fifteen West African Countries. We employ Panel VAR (PVAR) techniques on annual secondary data obtained from the World Development Indicator (WDI) between 1990 and 2013. The PVAR approach allows us to address the endogeneity problem by allowing the endogenous interaction among the variables in the system. Our results provide evidence of income growth spurring food security in the short run and reducing it in the long run, while climate change increased food insecurity throughout in West Africa. The study suggests that climate change is a necessary variable that needs to be controlled if food security is a desired goal in West Africa and that more priority should be given to agricultural sector in economic growth. Also, the leaders in West Africa should embrace a judicious and dynamic energy mix that will allow renewable sources to replace fossil fuels.

Armed Conflict and Food Security in West Africa: Socioeconomic Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustine Ujunwa ◽  
Chinwe Okoyeuzu ◽  
Ebere Ume Kalu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conflict In Africa

Purpose West Africa represents a very good case of a sub-region currently plagued with the problem of food insecurity. Traditional theories have attributed the increasing food insecurity in the region to problems of poor governance, corruption and climate change. In view of the persistent and increasing nature of armed conflict in the sub-region, the purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of increasing armed conflict on food security in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries. Design/methodology/approach The study utilized the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) to investigate the effect of conflict intensity on food security in the 14 member states of the ECOWAS using annualized panel data from 2005 to 2015. Findings The findings reveal that armed conflict is a significant predictor of food security in West Africa. Research limitations/implications The findings of the study bring to fore, the urgent need to rethink global initiative for combating food insecurity. The effort must also identify the causes of armed conflicts and design sound strategies for de-escalating the armed conflicts. Resolving the escalating armed conflict entails developing a conflict resolution framework that is extremely sensitive to the causes of conflict in Africa and adopting localized ex ante institutional diagnostics that would help in understanding the nature of the conflicts. Originality/value Traditional theory perceives climate change, social injustices, property right, food insecurity, religious extremism and bad governance as the predictors of armed conflicts. In this study, the authors departed from the traditional theory by demonstrating that the nature and trend of armed conflict could also pose a serious threat to food security.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7585
Author(s):  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Mathieu Castets ◽  
Adjoua Moise Famien ◽  
Christian Baron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Cereal Production ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from CMIP5), crop yield (simulated by agronomic model, SARRA-O) and demographic evolution (provided by UN projection) under two future climatic scenarios. We simulate yield for the main crops in five countries in West Africa and estimate the population pressure on crop production to assess the number of available cereal production per capita. We found that, although uncertain, the African monsoon evolution leads to an increase of rainfall in Eastern Sahel and a decrease in Western Sahel under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario from IPCC, leading to the higher temperature increase by the end of the 21st century. With regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below 50 kg per capita. This situation can have impact on crop import and regional migration.

scholarly journals Multi-Actors' Co-Implementation of Climate-Smart Village Approach in West Africa: Achievements and Lessons Learnt

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bayala ◽  
C. Ky-Dembele ◽  
S. D. Dayamba ◽  
J. Somda ◽  
M. Ouédraogo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Key Stakeholders

Climate change and variability are significant challenges for the environment and food security worldwide. Development strategies focusing simultaneously on adaptive farming, productivity, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-known as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) strategies-are key to responding to these challenges. For almost a decade, within the framework of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), World Agroforestry (ICRAF), and its partners have been using Participatory Action Research (PAR) to fully engage key stakeholders in co-creating such CSA development strategies. This includes the testing of Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) CSA scalability options. The multidisciplinary teams include the National Research and Extension Systems (NARES), national meteorological services (NMS), non-profit organizations (NGOs), and local radio programs, among others. The CCAFS-West Africa Program, World Agroforestry-West and Central Africa (ICRAF-WCA), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), University of Reading, and Centre Régional de Formation et d'Application en Agro-météorologie et Hydrologie Opérationnelle (AGRHYMET) provide technical backstopping to the national teams. Climate information (CI) was used as an entry point to inform the development of CSA technologies and practices within Climate-Smart Villages (CSV). This groundwork has led to a greater understanding of three critical factors for successful CSV implementation: (1) Building strong partnerships to co-design and develop agricultural systems that improve ecosystem and population resilience, (2) Key stakeholders (researchers, farmers, development agents, and students) capacity strengthening through vocational and academic training, and (3) Using CI for livelihood planning at all scales. These three factors support more effective identification and testing of agricultural technologies and practices addressing climate variability and change at plot, community, and landscape levels. This paper discusses the PAR-CSA methodology and parameters for evaluation, including biophysical and social change. Keys to success, including communication, knowledge sharing tools, and scalability are also discussed. Finally, future opportunities for improvement are presented, including knowledge product development, CSA policy and investment planning, capacity building, further engagement of the private sector, and additional research on existing practices and tools.

Climate Change and Food Security in the Drylands of West Africa

2003 ◽  
pp. 167-185
Author(s):  
A. Verhagen ◽  
A. J. Dietz ◽  
R. Ruben ◽  
H. van Dijk ◽  
A. de Jong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa

scholarly journals Resilience Planning, a Facilitated Modelling Approach

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Herrera ◽  
Birgit Kopainsky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Facilitated Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Resilience has emerged as a buzzword among researchers and practitioners. However, despite its popularity, there has been little progress in moving it from an elaborate metaphor describing an idyllic state of the system to a tool for planning and managing adaptation. While case study research is rich with examples of systems that have proven to be resilient or are striving to develop resilience, there is no defined approach that operationalises concepts described in the literature into the planning process. This paper helps close this gap by illustrating how facilitated modelling can be used for resilience planning in socio-ecological systems. The paper summarizes our experience using facilitated system dynamics to inform a model-based discussion of food security resilience to climate change in Guatemala. We identify at least three positive outcomes from the intervention, which a) helped to build consensus about the meaning of resilience, b) improved stakeholders understanding of adaptation and c) outlined potential policies to enhance resilience.

scholarly journals Markets, Climate Change, and Food Security in West Africa

2009 ◽  
Vol 43 (21) ◽  
pp. 8016-8020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly E. Brown ◽  
Beat Hintermann ◽  
Nathaniel Higgins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
West Africa

Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Food Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Plant Insect Interactions ◽  
Native Habitat ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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