scholarly journals Optimal utility and probability functions for agents with finite computational precision

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keno Juechems ◽  
Jan Balaguer ◽  
Bernhard Spitzer ◽  
Christopher Summerfield
Keyword(s):  
Selective Pressure ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Internal Representation ◽  
Simple Assumption ◽  
Probability Functions ◽  
True Value ◽  
The Face ◽  
Economic Choices ◽  
As If

When making economic choices, such as those between goods or gambles, humans act as if their internal representation of the value and probability of a prospect is distorted away from its true value. These distortions give rise to decisions which apparently fail to maximise reward, and preferences that reverse without reason. Why would humans have evolved to encode value and probability in a distorted fashion, in the face of selective pressure for reward-maximising choices? Here, we show that under the simple assumption that humans make decisions with finite computational precision – in other words, that decisions are irreducibly corrupted by noise – the distortions of value and probability displayed by humans are approximately optimal in that they maximise reward and minimise uncertainty. In two empirical studies, we manipulate factors that change the reward-maximising form of distortion, and find that in each case, humans adapt optimally to the manipulation. This work suggests an answer to the longstanding question of why humans make “irrational” economic choices.

scholarly journals Optimal utility and probability functions for agents with finite computational precision

2020 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. e2002232118
Author(s):  
Keno Juechems ◽  
Jan Balaguer ◽  
Bernhard Spitzer ◽  
Christopher Summerfield
Keyword(s):  
Selective Pressure ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Internal Representation ◽  
Simple Assumption ◽  
Probability Functions ◽  
True Value ◽  
The Face ◽  
Economic Choices ◽  
As If

When making economic choices, such as those between goods or gambles, humans act as if their internal representation of the value and probability of a prospect is distorted away from its true value. These distortions give rise to decisions which apparently fail to maximize reward, and preferences that reverse without reason. Why would humans have evolved to encode value and probability in a distorted fashion, in the face of selective pressure for reward-maximizing choices? Here, we show that under the simple assumption that humans make decisions with finite computational precision––in other words, that decisions are irreducibly corrupted by noise––the distortions of value and probability displayed by humans are approximately optimal in that they maximize reward and minimize uncertainty. In two empirical studies, we manipulate factors that change the reward-maximizing form of distortion, and find that in each case, humans adapt optimally to the manipulation. This work suggests an answer to the longstanding question of why humans make “irrational” economic choices.

scholarly journals Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects: Hitler’s Speeches and the Rise of the Nazi Party, 1927–1933

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (4) ◽  
pp. 1050-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER SELB ◽  
SIMON MUNZERT
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Nazi Party ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Extensive Data ◽  
The Face ◽  
Populist Movements

Hitler’s rise to power amidst an unprecedented propaganda campaign initiated scholarly interest in campaign effects. To the surprise of many, empirical studies often found minimal effects. The predominant focus of early work was on U.S. elections, though. Nazi propaganda as the archetypal and, in many ways, most likely case for strong effects has rarely been studied. We collect extensive data about Hitler’s speeches and gauge their impact on voter support at five national elections preceding the dictatorship. We use a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach to estimate effects in the face of potential confounding due to the deliberate scheduling of events. Our findings suggest that Hitler’s speeches, while rationally targeted, had a negligible impact on the Nazis’ electoral fortunes. Only the 1932 presidential runoff, an election preceded by an extraordinarily short, intense, and one-sided campaign, yielded positive effects. This study questions the importance of charismatic leaders for the success of populist movements.

Chapter XV DR SEWARD’S DIARY

Dracula ◽  
2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bram Stoker
Keyword(s):  
The Face ◽  
As If

For a while sheer anger mastered me; it was as if he had during her life struck Lucy on the face. I smote the table hard and rose up as I said to him:— ‘Dr Van Helsing, are you mad?’ He raised his head and...

Population Structure

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard Nunney
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Genetic Structure ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Genetic Correlations ◽  
Evolutionary Change ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
The Face ◽  
Family Associations ◽  
Proximity Structure

Population structure is a ubiquitous feature of natural populations that has an important influence on evolutionary change. In the real world, populations are not homogenous units; instead, they develop an internal structure, created by the physical properties of the environment and the biological characteristics of the species (such as dispersal ability). However, our basic ecological and population genetic models generally ignore population structure and focus on randomly mating (panmictic) populations. Such structure can profoundly change the evolution of a population. In fact, the myriad of influences that population structure exerts can only be hinted at in a single chapter. Since an exhaustive review is not possible, I will focus on presenting the conceptual issues linking mathematical models of population structure to empirical studies. To do this, it is useful to recognize two different kinds of population structure that both reflect and influence evolutionary change. The first is genetic structure. This is defined as the nonrandom distribution of genotypes in space and time. Thus, genetic structure reflects the genetic differences that develop among the different components of one or more populations. The second is what I will call proximity structure, defined by the size and composition of the group of neighbors that influence an individual’s fitness. Fitness is commonly influenced by local intraspecific interactions. Perhaps the most obvious example is competition. When individuals compete for some resource, they don’t usually compete equally with every other member of the population; in general, they compete only with a few of the most proximate individuals. These two forms of population structure, genetic structure and proximity structure, provide a foundation for understanding why we have shifted away from viewing populations as homogenous units. For good reason, this is a theme that is explored in many of the other chapters in this book. Genetic structure can develop within a population over a single generation, generally either as a result of local family associations or as a result of spatial variation in selection. For example, limited seed dispersal results in genetic correlations among neighbors even in the face of long-distance pollen movement, due to the clustering of maternal half sibs.

scholarly journals Creaturely Communal Ontology in Practice: John Zizioulas in Dialogue with Ritual Theory

Religions ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 506
Author(s):  
John W. Compton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
Full Diversity ◽  
Ritual Theory ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Foundational Work ◽  
As If

This article is born out of a deep concern for our current ecological crisis and serves as a beginning foundational work for how the Christian tradition can address global climate change. Our current way of being gives precedence to the autonomous individual, whose freedom is characterized by disregard for other creatures. John Zizioulas’ communal ontology demonstrates that as the world was created out of God’s loving will, it is comprised of relationship. Living into individuation and division is a refusal of this communion with other creatures and God, but the Eucharist serves as the ritual that brings Christians into communion through the remembrance of Christ. Ian McFarland’s work on the theology of creation provides the helpful nuance that creaturely movement in communion must include the full diversity of creatures. I then turn to Bruce Morrill’s work to demonstrate that the Eucharistic practice must have bearing beyond the walls of the church. It leads practitioners to live into eschatological hope and kenotic service to the world. John Seligman’s ritual theory demonstrates that ritual practice can accomplish these goals because it creates a subjunctive ‘as-if’ world in the face of the world that is perceived as chaotic. Through the continuous practice of the ritual, participants are then formed to live into this subjunctive ‘as-if’ world without ritual precedence. In this way, the Eucharistic practice can prepare practitioners to live into the kenotic service to a world broken by individuation that has led to global climate change and creaturely destruction.

scholarly journals Vigor in the Face of Fluctuating Rates of Reward: An Experimental Examination

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 3933-3938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Guitart-Masip ◽  
Ulrik R. Beierholm ◽  
Raymond Dolan ◽  
Emrah Duzel ◽  
Peter Dayan
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Healthy Human ◽  
Average Return ◽  
The Face ◽  
Cost Of Time ◽  
Human Participants

Two fundamental questions underlie the expression of behavior, namely what to do and how vigorously to do it. The former is the topic of an overwhelming wealth of theoretical and empirical work particularly in the fields of reinforcement learning and decision-making, with various forms of affective prediction error playing key roles. Although vigor concerns motivation, and so is the subject of many empirical studies in diverse fields, it has suffered a dearth of computational models. Recently, Niv et al. [Niv, Y., Daw, N. D., Joel, D., & Dayan, P. Tonic dopamine: Opportunity costs and the control of response vigor. Psychopharmacology (Berlin), 191, 507–520, 2007] suggested that vigor should be controlled by the opportunity cost of time, which is itself determined by the average rate of reward. This coupling of reward rate and vigor can be shown to be optimal under the theory of average return reinforcement learning for a particular class of tasks but may also be a more general, perhaps hard-wired, characteristic of the architecture of control. We, therefore, tested the hypothesis that healthy human participants would adjust their RTs on the basis of the average rate of reward. We measured RTs in an odd-ball discrimination task for rewards whose magnitudes varied slowly but systematically. Linear regression on the subjects' individual RTs using the time varying average rate of reward as the regressor of interest, and including nuisance regressors such as the immediate reward in a round and in the preceding round, showed that a significant fraction of the variance in subjects' RTs could indeed be explained by the rate of experienced reward. This validates one of the key proposals associated with the model, illuminating an apparently mandatory form of coupling that may involve tonic levels of dopamine.

Précis of a Lecture on the Married Women'S Property Acts 1870 and 1882

1933 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 105-117
Author(s):  
David Houseman
Keyword(s):  
Married Woman ◽  
Unmarried Woman ◽  
Legal Principles ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
Married Women's Property Acts ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Law ◽  
Assurance Contracts ◽  
As If

The law which governs life assurance contracts, their formation and their execution is, to a very large extent, the same law as that which governs mercantile contracts generally. The titles to life policies are affected by the law of contract, of mortgage, of partnership, and so on. There are, however, some legal principles and statutory provisions which affect life assurance alone, and among them are the following sections in the Married Women's Property Acts, 1870 and 1882.Married Women's Property Act, 1870, Section 10.A married woman may effect a policy of insurance upon her own life or the life of her husband for her separate use, and the same and all benefit thereof, if expressed on the face of it to be so effected, shall enure accordingly, and the contract in such policy shall be as valid as if made with an unmarried woman.

The Changing Face of the Television Industry

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-17
Author(s):  
Kate Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Television Industry ◽  
Dominant Position ◽  
Television Station ◽  
The Face ◽  
As If

In the last few months the face of television station ownership in Australia has changed dramatically. While a year ago it looked as if major owners such as Packer and Murdoch would remain in a dominant position in the television industry for the foreseeable future, now both Packer and Murdoch have sold off their stations, and media watchers are facing a new line-up of television owners.

scholarly journals Void Hierarchy in the Northern Local Void

1999 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 185-190
Author(s):  
U. Lindner ◽  
K.J. Fricke ◽  
J. Einasto ◽  
M. Einasto
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Functions ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Large Scale Structure ◽  
Topological Methods ◽  
Probability Functions ◽  
Cluster Distribution ◽  
Luminous Matter ◽  
The Galaxy

Empirical studies of the Large–Scale Structure in the nearby Universe come in two complementary modes, namely the investigation of either the distribution of luminous matter or voids: (i) The description of the galaxy and cluster distribution employs correlation functions, clustering analysis, topological methods, et cetera. (ii) The investigation of the empty regions between systems of galaxies uses void probability functions, mean diameters of voids, the compilation of void catalogues, and so forth.

scholarly journals Belief, Faith, and Hope: On the Rationality of Long-Term Commitment

Mind ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Rational Action ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time ◽  
As If

Abstract I examine three attitudes: belief, faith, and hope. I argue that all three attitudes play the same role in rationalizing action. First, I explain two models of rational action—the decision-theory model and the belief-desire model. Both models entail there are two components of rational action: an epistemic component and a conative component. Then, using this framework, I show how belief, faith, and hope that p can all make it rational to accept, or act as if, p. I conclude by showing how my picture can explain how action-oriented commitments can be rational over time, both in the face of counterevidence and in the face of waning affections.

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