scholarly journals The odd case when cognitive biases are more prevalent in researchers than in samples

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose D. Perezgonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Result Interpretation

Walmsley and Gilbey (2016) reported on the impact of cognitive biases on pilots’ decision-making, concluding that there was strong evidence that cognitive bias impacted decision making thus putting pilots' lives in danger. However, their methodology was not free of the same biases they set to research and, more importantly, they relied far too much on statistical significance as the only standard for result interpretation. Consequently, while the results obtained may have been technically correct, their divorce from the underlying methodological context made them factually wrong. Therefore, the conclusions achieved also misrepresented the true impact of cognitive biases on pilots' decision-making.

Cognitive Bias and its Relationship to Decision Making: the Case of Talented Secondary Students in Jeddah: الانحياز المعرفي وعلاقته باتخاذ القرار لدى عينة من طالبات المرحلة الثانوية الموهوبات بمدينة جدة

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (45) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalal Hamid Al-Dhahri, Arwa Abdullah Al-Ghamdi, Mogeda El-Sa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Students ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
School Administration ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Descriptive Method

This study aims at investigating the relationship between cognitive biases and decision making from a sample of gifted secondary students. It also aims at identifying the level of students’ cognitive biases and decision making and the differences in these two areas based on different classrooms. Random sampling was used to collect data from 139 female secondary students from the gifted group. Their age ranged between (16-18) with an average of (16.6), A descriptive method was adopted in the study. The research tools used consisted of DACOBS David Assessment of Cognitive biases Scale (Vander Gaag. et al., 2000), translated and standardized by the present researchers, and Tuistra’s decision making scale for teenagers (Tuinstra, et al., 2000). The findings of the study show a negative correlation between cognitive biases and decision making. Also, there were no differences between cognitive biases and decision making scores based on different classrooms. The study also shows a low level of students’ cognitive biases and a high level of decision making. The study recommends activating the role of mentors and students' counseling, planning for the values and behaviors that need to be acquired by students by including them in the annual goals of the school administration and participating in societal awareness and education.

Conflict of Interest and Decision Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 265-282
Author(s):  
Geneviève Helleringer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conflict Of Interest ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Professional Norms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Harmful Effects

This chapter looks at conflicts of interest (COI). It first considers tools of analytic philosophy to highlight the notion of COI, and in particular, the connection between COIs, choice and judgment, emphasising why decision making is a central element in the characterisation of COIs. Drawing on these elements, it is clear that any question of regulation and institutional design requires a sophisticated understanding of the capacity of individuals to recognise and resist bias in themselves and others when making judgments and decisions. The chapter then studies two specific mechanisms—bounded rationality and cognitive biases—that affect the behaviour of people in COI situations. It starts by analysing how rationalisation can reframe questionable behaviour as appearing acceptable, and how a sense of invulnerability encourages people to downplay the impact of COIs. The chapter then looks at techniques (policies, procedures, incentives, etc.) used to address COI situations in the light of insights from psychological studies. It concludes that both fiduciary duties and procedural requirements reflect an erroneous understanding of psychology and have led institutions and policies to deal ineffectively—if not indeed counterproductively—with the problems caused by COIs. Finally, the chapter assesses how alternative mechanisms may overcome the highlighted deficiencies. It specifically focuses on the key role that professional norms can play in dealing with unavoidable COIs while preserving trust between the affected parties, and the potential for self-regulation to provide worthwhile tools in combatting the harmful effects of COIs.

scholarly journals How Concept Selection Tools Impact the Development of Creative Ideas in Engineering Design Education

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuan Zheng ◽  
Sarah C. Ritter ◽  
Scarlett R. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Design Education ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Concept Selection ◽  
Engineering Design Education ◽  
Student Teams ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Tools

Concept selection tools have been heavily integrated into engineering design education in an effort to reduce the risks and uncertainties of early-phase design ideas and aid students in the decision-making process. However, little research has examined the utility of these tools in promoting creative ideas or their impact on student team decision making throughout the conceptual design process. To fill this research gap, the current study was designed to compare the impact of two concept selection tools, the concept selection matrix (CSM) and the tool for assessing semantic creativity (TASC) on the average quality (AQL) and average novelty (ANV) of ideas selected by student teams at several decision points throughout an 8-week project. The results of the study showed that the AQL increased significantly in the detailed design stage, while the ANV did not change. However, this change in idea quality was not significantly impacted by the concept selection tool used, suggesting other factors may impact student decision making and the development of creative ideas. Finally, student teams were found to select ideas ranked highly in concept selection tools only when these ideas met their expectations, indicating that cognitive biases may be significantly impeding decision making.

scholarly journals Measuring individual differences in cognitive biases: The Cognitive Bias Inventory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Berthet ◽  
Vincent de Gardelle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Personality Factors ◽  
Wrong Answer ◽  
Outcome Bias

This article described the behavioral measurement of six classic cognitive biases (framing, availability, anchoring, overconfidence, hindsight/outcome bias, confirmation bias). Each measure showed a satisfactory level of reliability with regard both to internal consistency (mean Cronbach’s alpha = .77) and temporal stability (mean test-retest correlation = .71). Multivariate analysis supported the hypothesis that each cognitive bias captures specific decision-making processes as the six biases: (a) were virtually uncorrelated (mean correlation = .08), thus indicating no general decision-making competence factor, (b) were moderately correlated with other relevant constructs (the A-DMC components, cognitive ability, decision-making styles, and personality factors), (c) were more related to performance on a narrow domain of decision-making (the ability to overcome an intuitive wrong answer as measured by the CRT) than to the general success in real-life decision-making as measured by the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). We introduce this set of behavioral tasks as the Cognitive Bias Inventory (CBI), a psychometric tool allowing for the reliable assessment of individual differences in six common, independent cognitive shortcuts. The CBI appears as a useful tool for future research on decision-making competence and how it relates to decision errors.

The problem of entanglement: Biases and fallacies in police conflict management

2021 ◽  
pp. 146135572110640
Author(s):  
Mario S Staller ◽  
Benjamin Zaiser ◽  
Swen Koerner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
External Influences ◽  
Current Affairs ◽  
Excessive Use Of Force ◽  
Systemic Understanding ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Way

Cognitive biases have been identified as drivers of the excessive use of force, which has determined current affairs across the globe. In this article, we argue that the police are facing serious challenges in combating these biases. These challenges stem from the nature of cognitive biases, their sources and the fallacies that mislead police professionals in the way they think about them. Based on a framework of expert decision-making fallacies and biases, we argue that these fallacies limit the impact of efforts to mitigate cognitive biases in police conflict management. In order to achieve a systemic understanding of cognitive biases and their detrimental effects, the article concludes that implementing reflexive structures within the police is a crucial prerequisite to effectively reflect on external influences and to limit bias and fallacies from further unfolding in a self-referential loop.

Cognitive Biases

2018 ◽  
pp. 214-235
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Legal Education ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions

This chapter will describe some implications of using cognitive biases in the decision-making process in social areas such as economic, legal, education, and political. The cognitive bias would be a pattern of deviation in judgment, in which the inferences that we make about other people and/or situations can be illogical. Moreover, different studies have found that even strategic decisions that affect the society can be influenced by these biases. Therefore, it is important to be aware of them to try to detect and reduce them. Above all, it is necessary to teach how to detect them in order to reduce them in public professionals.

Exploring Cognitive Biases, Groupthink, and Polythink Syndrome in Security Decisions and Business Outcomes

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-61
Author(s):  
Luisa Dall'Acqua
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
The Other ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Business Outcomes ◽  
Clear Cut

Cognitive bias among workers can undermine security work and lead to critical misinterpretations of data. Understanding cognitive biases can improve understanding of how employees make decisions. This work analyzes key factors to better understand, predict, and obviate the detrimental bias symptoms, focusing on groupthink and polythink phenomena occurring in security and business decisions. It intends to provide support for the strategic versus tactical hypothesis in a strategic group decision-making, confirming how even in a clear-cut decision, following a groupthink or polythink dynamic, implementation becomes difficult due to a group dynamics at the other end of the decision-making continuum.

Cognitive Biases and Decision Making in Gambling

2010 ◽  
Vol 107 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Chóliz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Games Of Chance

Heuristics and cognitive biases can occur in reasoning and decision making. Some of them are very common in gamblers (illusion of control, representativeness, availability, etc.). Structural characteristics and functioning of games of chance favor the appearance of these biases. Two experiments were conducted with nonpathological gamblers. The first experiment was a game of dice with wagers. In the second experiment, the participants played two bingo games. Specific rules of the games favored the appearance of cognitive bias (illusion of control) and heuristics (representativeness and availability) and influence on the bets. Results and implications for gambling are discussed.

scholarly journals Cognitive bias: how understanding its impact on antibiotic prescribing decisions can help advance antimicrobial stewardship

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley J Langford ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Valerie Leung ◽  
Dale J Langford
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Healthcare Setting ◽  
Hyperbolic Discounting ◽  
Antibiotic Prescribing ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Human Decision

Abstract The way clinicians think about decision-making is evolving. Human decision-making shifts between two modes of thinking, either fast/intuitive (Type 1) or slow/deliberate (Type 2). In the healthcare setting where thousands of decisions are made daily, Type 1 thinking can reduce cognitive load and help ensure decision making is efficient and timely, but it can come at the expense of accuracy, leading to systematic errors, also called cognitive biases. This review provides an introduction to cognitive bias and provides explanation through patient vignettes of how cognitive biases contribute to suboptimal antibiotic prescribing. We describe common cognitive biases in antibiotic prescribing both from the clinician and the patient perspective, including hyperbolic discounting (the tendency to favour small immediate benefits over larger more distant benefits) and commission bias (the tendency towards action over inaction). Management of cognitive bias includes encouraging more mindful decision making (e.g., time-outs, checklists), improving awareness of one’s own biases (i.e., meta-cognition), and designing an environment that facilitates safe and accurate decision making (e.g., decision support tools, nudges). A basic understanding of cognitive biases can help explain why certain stewardship interventions are more effective than others and may inspire more creative strategies to ensure antibiotics are used more safely and more effectively in our patients.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS ON PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS: THE CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shenaj Hadzimustafa ◽  
Nermine Shabani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Financial Behavior ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Emotional Bias ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
The Impact

The "Financial Behavior" in the field of "decision making" is the topic that awarded the economist Richard H. Thaler the Nobel Prize in 2017. According to him, after many investigations made on human decisions, it is noticed that they often depend on nature, intuition, habits, cognitive biases, emotional biases which lead the investor to wrong decisions. Given that the investments play an important and central role in the economy, the main purpose of the paper is to analyze the investment decision making process based on emotional bias, or more specifically the overconfidence bias. This study captures the impact of gender, and level of education on overconfidence during investment decision making in North Macedonia. The results show that investors' decisions were significantly influenced by the overconfidence bias. Although men and women are found to be overconfident, studies have shown that the degree of overconfidence varies among them and men are more overconfident than women. Also, overconfidence increases with the level of education. Based on the results certain recommendations are provided in order to assist future investment decision-making processes by notifying and eliminating the overconfidence bias identified during this research as a key factor leading to wrong and failing, non-rational investment decision making.

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