Cognitive change before old age (11 to 70) predicts cognitive change after old age (70 to 82)
Identifying predictors of cognitive decline within older age helps to understand its mechanisms and to identify those at greater risk. Here we examine how cognitive change from 11 to 70 years is associated with cognitive change within older age (70 to 82 years) in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 longitudinal study (N=1091 at recruitment). Using latent growth curve models, we estimate rates of change from age 70 to 82 in general cognitive ability (g) and in three cognitive domains: visuospatial, memory and processing speed. g accounted for 71.3% of interindividual change variance. Greater 11-70 cognitive gain predicted slower decline in g over 12 subsequent years (β = .163, p = .001), independently of cognitive level at age 70, and domain-specific change beyond g. These results contribute toward identifying people at higher risk of age-related cognitive decline. Age-related cognitive decline is a significant threat to the quality of life in older age. Its economic and social impact on society will increase together with the steadily rising life expectancy. How can we preserve cognitive health in older age? Researchers have made significant advances in identifying protective and risk factors. However, most studies focus on a limited age range, and cognitive change mechanisms are not yet completely understood. This work takes advantage of almost life-spanning longitudinal data to test if cognitive trajectory across childhood and adulthood can predict cognitive trajectories in older age. Our findings show that earlier change is associated with later change. Some factors related to individual differences in cognitive change might thus operate over much of the adult life course, and certainly before older age. This knowledge can help identify individuals at higher risk of decline and understand the mechanisms and factors responsible.