scholarly journals Duration of Intrastate Wars of Attrition: The Causal Impact of Military Build-Ups

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Mehltretter ◽  
Paul Thurner
Keyword(s):  
War Of Attrition ◽  
Additive Hazards ◽  
Protracted Conflict ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
Conventional Weapons ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Scientific knowledge on the effectiveness of governmental military build-ups to terminate intrastate conflicts is sparse and inconclusive. Developing a war-of-attrition framework, we derive the impact of governments' armaments on the duration of these conflicts: military build-ups, as reflected in inflows of major conventional weapons, enable the government to inflict costs onto its adversaries, forcing them to withdraw earlier from the conflict. This type of weapons is required in particular to project military power over larger distances and to fight rebels in remote areas. Using SIPRI arms transfer data for the first time in a disaggregated dyadic design, covering 418 government-rebel group dyads in 134 conflicts, we empirically corroborate the formal model's predictions. As endogeneity issues might arise when governments procure arms in anticipation of a protracted conflict, we ensure causal identification with an instrumental variable survival approach based on the Aalen additive hazards model.

scholarly journals Compositional cyber-physical epidemiology of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Woo Ro ◽  
Nathan Allen ◽  
Weiwei Ai ◽  
Debi Prasad ◽  
Partha S. Roop
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Cyber Physical Systems ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
New Framework

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges globally. Countries have adopted different strategies with varying degrees of success. Epidemiologists are studying the impact of government actions using scenario analysis. However, the interactions between the government policy and the disease dynamics are not formally captured. We, for the first time, formally study the interaction between the disease dynamics, which is modelled as a physical process, and the government policy, which is modelled as the adjoining controller. Our approach enables compositionality, where either the plant or the controller could be replaced by an alternative model. Our work is inspired by the engineering approach for the design of Cyber-Physical Systems. Consequently, we term the new framework Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology. We created different classes of controllers and applied these to control the disease in New Zealand and Italy. Our controllers closely follow government decisions based on their published data. We not only reproduce the pandemic progression faithfully in New Zealand and Italy but also show the tradeoffs produced by differing control actions.

scholarly journals Responses to the Economic Crisis among Immigrants in the Czech Republic: Impeding and Inhibiting Factors for Staying

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marketa Rulikova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Ethnographic Study ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Foreign Guest ◽  
Oil Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

This paper considers the impact of the most recent global economic crisis on immigration in theCzechRepublic. Developments during this economically troubled period suggest that the “immigration-inexperienced”CzechRepublic, which has attracted significant numbers of people seeking economic opportunities in the past decade for the first time, has repeated historical mistakes made by Western European countries during the 1970s oil crisis. Initially, promising economic growth at the beginning of the decade allowed the Czech government to ignore issues of immigration, including controlling inflow and immigrants’ integration into the majority of society. The sudden reality of jobs disappearing in late 2008, irrespective of the fact that many employers in the economic sectors are dependent on foreign guest workers, caught the country unprepared. In an effort to level the unemployment rate and dampen societal unrest, theCzechRepublicoffered financial assistance to immigrants who opted to depart voluntarily, but officials overestimated the willingness of foreign labourers to return home, even if gainful work vanished.This paper is based on research conducted among participants of the government-assisted Voluntary Return Programme and a follow-up ethnographic study in the Vietnamese, Ukrainian and Mongolian communities in Prague. It can be shown that most immigrants decided to stay despite extreme declines in their living conditions. While the motivations of immigrants to leave or stay are multifaceted, this paper offers an alternative to the “pull-push” model that takes into consideration economic as well as cultural factors, which both impede and inhibit migrants from returning “home”.

scholarly journals Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Woo Ro ◽  
Nathan Allen ◽  
Weiwei Ai ◽  
Debi Prasad ◽  
Partha S. Roop
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Cyber Physical Systems ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Physical Systems ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
New Framework

AbstractCOVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges globally. Countries have adopted different strategies with varying degrees of success. Epidemiologists are studying the impact of government actions using scenario analysis. However, the interactions between the government policy and the disease dynamics are not formally captured.We, for the first time, formally study the interaction between the disease dynamics, which is modelled as a physical process, and the government policy, which is modelled as the adjoining controller. Our approach enables compositionality, where either the plant or the controller could be replaced by an alternative model. Our work is inspired by the engineering approach for the design of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs). Consequently, we term the new framework Compositional Cyber-Physical Epidemiology (CCPE). We created different classes of controllers and applied these to control the disease in New Zealand and Italy. Our controllers closely follow government decisions based on their published data. We not only reproduce the pandemic progression faithfully in New Zealand and Italy but also show the tradeoffs produced by differing control actions.

Convention on prohibitions or restrictions on the use of certain conventional weapons which may be deemed to be excessively injurious or to have indiscriminate effects — Statement by the ICRC

1994 ◽  
Vol 34 (298) ◽  
pp. 56-60
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Conventional Weapons ◽  
United Nations Convention ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

We are grateful to the Government of France for having called for a conference to review the 1980 United Nations Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons which May be Deemed to be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects.The Review Conference for the 1980 Convention is an important event, as it provides the opportunity, for the first time since that Convention entered into force in 1983, for States to make an assessment of its impact and to decide whether it needs to be amended in order to be more effective.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 related lockdown and restrictions on general surgery resident training program in India-outcome of a survey

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 2750
Author(s):  
Krishna Ramavath ◽  
Satish Subbiah Nagaraj ◽  
Pranay Palle ◽  
Charan Singh
Keyword(s):  
Training Program ◽  
General Surgery ◽  
Resident Training ◽  
General Surgery Resident ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Surgery Resident ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Second Wave

The global spread of the disease COVID-19 pandemic occurred due to novel virus corona 2019-nCoV, first time detected in China Wuhan city then spread throughout the world. In our country during 2020 march to up to starting of June, the government of India has put lockdown all over the country. Some restrictions were continued throughout the year and again has put lockdown in 2021 also. Again, in 2021 February last week second wave of COVID-19 pandemic has started and many states in the country has implemented lockdown as phase wise. COVID-19 lockdown has so much effect on surgery resident training program in India. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the lockdown and COVID-19 pandemic restriction on general surgery residents training programs across India. It is an online based questionnaire survey using apps like Facebook, WhatsApp, Telegram and telephonic services. Data from students was collected through social media who were responded to our questionnaire. Our survey showed that majority surgery trainees across the country felt that the COVID-19 lockdown adversely affected their learning, especially surgical training.

scholarly journals Military Technology and Human Loss in Intrastate Conflict: The Conditional Impact of Arms Imports

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 1172-1196
Author(s):  
Marius Mehrl ◽  
Paul W. Thurner
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
Military Technology ◽  
Small Arms ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
Conventional Weapons ◽  
Intrastate War ◽  
First Time ◽  
Human Losses

Although often conjectured, there is a lack of empirical evidence whether international inflows of military technology render intrastate conflicts more violent. We address this question and argue that expansions in governments’ ability to fight aggravate the lethality of intrastate war. However, we expect this effect to be conditioned by rebels’ military endowments and their choice of tactics. Where rebels are weak, they avoid open combat, and additional governmental arms imports have no effect on the number of casualties. In contrast, governmental arms imports cause human losses to multiply when rebels have achieved military parity or superiority and, as a consequence, use conventional combat tactics. This hypothesis is tested on the number of battle-related deaths in intrastate conflict, 1989 to 2011, using, for the first time, data on governmental imports of both major conventional weapons and small arms. Results support our propositions and are robust to instrumenting for imports of both types of weapons.

The Sequence of Mediation Efforts in the Conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Levke Aduda
Keyword(s):  
Lord's Resistance Army ◽  
Intrastate Conflicts ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lord’S Resistance Army

Abstract What impact have different mediation outcomes had on subsequent mediation onset and success in the conflict between the government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)? Intrastate conflicts commonly see more than one mediation effort. These efforts can result in different outcomes. Assessing the impact of different mediation outcomes on subsequent mediation efforts in the conflict between the governments of Uganda and the LRA, it becomes apparent that reneged agreements have aggravated subsequent mediation efforts, while mediation ending without an agreement and previous mediation success do not reduce the chances of subsequent mediation onset (and success). This suggests that short-lived agreements are not only likely to lead to renewed conflict, but also make further mediation efforts more difficult.

scholarly journals Bio-statistical Analysis on the Enterprise Dynamic Management in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Dynamic Management ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Background: With the worldwide spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the global economy has entered a cold winter, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will shrink by about 3% in 2020. The outbreak of the epidemic has also caused heavy losses to the Chinese economy. In the first quarter of 2020, actual GDP fell sharply for the first time by 6.8% year-on-year for the first time. This is the first decline since record. Then, according to the data from the business survey in March, China's economy has improved compared with February, which shows that the economy has rebounded under the influence of policies. Judging from the current situation, although China has passed the peak period of the epidemic, affected by the high cases abroad, it can only be carried out slowly for the resumption of production. Enterprises, as micro-individuals under the macro economy, need to pass through analyzing the dynamic management of the enterprise to deepen the reform of the commercial system and stimulate the vitality of the enterprise. This will also provide data support for the government formulating relevant policies, which is conducive to the synergy of various policies and enhance the momentum of economic recovery. On the other hand, we choose tourism as our specific research object. Thus, we need to set different scenarios according to the development situation of the epidemic, evaluate the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on China's tourism industry, and discuss tourism development and opportunities in the post-epidemic era from the aspects of tourism's response to the epidemic and the development trend of the tourism after the epidemic [4].

scholarly journals On the Enterprise Dynamic Management in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-2
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Dynamic Management ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

With the worldwide spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the global economy has entered a cold winter, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will shrink by about 3% in 2020. The outbreak of the epidemic has also caused heavy losses to the Chinese economy. In the first quarter of 2020, actual GDP fell sharply for the first time by 6.8% year-on-year for the first time. This is the first decline since record. Then, according to the data from the business survey in March, China's economy has improved compared with February, which shows that the economy has rebounded under the influence of policies. Judging from the current situation, although China has passed the peak period of the epidemic, affected by the high cases abroad, it can only be carried out slowly for the resumption of production. Enterprises, as microindividuals under the macro economy, need to pass through analyzing the dynamic management of the enterprise to deepen the reform of the commercial system and stimulate the vitality of the enterprise. This will also provide data support for the government formulating relevant policies, which is conducive to the synergy of various policies and enhance the momentum of economic recovery. On the other hand, we choose tourism as our specific research object. Thus, we need to set different scenarios according to the development situation of the epidemic, evaluate the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on China's tourism industry, and discuss tourism development and opportunities in the post-epidemic era from the aspects of tourism's response to the epidemic and the development trend of the tourism after the epidemic4.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Declaration of the State of Emergency on the Spread of COVID-19: A Modeling Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Zhongxiang Chen ◽  
Siqiang Sun ◽  
Wenhui Zhao ◽  
Zhaoru Liu ◽  
Xinyao Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
The State ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
Previous State ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

When encountering the outbreak and early spreading of COVID-19, the Government of Japan imposed gradually upgraded restriction policies and declared the state of emergency in April 2020 for the first time. To evaluate the efficacy of the countering strategies in different periods, we constructed a SEIADR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-documented-recovered) model to simulate the cases and determined corresponding spreading coefficients. The effective reproduction number R t was obtained to evaluate the measures controlling the COVID-19 conducted by the Government of Japan during different stages. It was found that the strict containing strategies during the state of emergency period drastically inhibit the COVID-19 trend. R t was decreased to 1.1123 and 0.8911 in stages 4 and 5 (a state of emergency in April and May 2020) from 3.5736, 2.0126, 3.0672 in the previous three stages when the containing strategies were weak. The state of emergency was declared again in view of the second wave of massive infections in January 2021. We estimated the cumulative infected cases and additional days to contain the COVID-19 transmission for the second state of emergency using this model. R t was 1.028 which illustrated that the strategies were less effective than the previous state of emergency. Finally, the overall infected population was predicted using combined isolation and testing intensity; the effectiveness and the expected peak time were evaluated. If using the optimized control strategies in the current stage, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan could be controlled within 30 days. The total confirmed cases should reduce to less than 4.2 × 10 5 by April 2021. This model study suggested stricter isolating measures may be required to shorten the period of the state of emergency.

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