scholarly journals The political economy of crime: Did Universal Credit increase crime rates?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Tiratelli ◽  
Ben Bradford ◽  
Julia Yesberg
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
The Political ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Founding Fathers

Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime rates remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as Universal Credit enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite Universal Credit being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations.

The Political Economy of Elections in Latin America, 1980–1991

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 393-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen L. Remmer
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
The Political ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The process of political democratization in Latin America during the 1980s created a rare opportunity to explore the political economy of elections outside of the North Atlantic basin. Using interrupted time-series analysis, I explore the impact of elections on macroeconomic performance in eight Latin American nations. The findings indicate that macroeconomic performance has fluctuated with the electoral calendar but that contrary to the traditional business cycle literature, as well as the conventional wisdom about Latin America, competitive elections have enhanced, rather than undermined, the capacity of political leaders to address outstanding problems of macroeconomic management. The analysis suggests that the relationship between democracy and economics is captured more adequately by a “political capital” model than by its traditional theoretical alternative.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

scholarly journals From social security to state-sanctioned insecurity: how welfare reform mimics the commodification of labour through greater state intervention

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Reeves ◽  
Insa Koch
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Social Insecurity ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Central Tension

Social security systems confront a central tension: how to reconcile welfare retrenchment with the political challenges with implementing these reforms. One way in which policy makers have responded to this tension is by repurposing existing institutions to serve new ends. We investigate the system of Universal Credit (UC) in the UK as an example of such a ‘conversion’. UC expands the mantra of ‘active citizenship’ to a much larger population than ever before. However, far from producing uniform outcomes, UC’s implementation has been marked by chaos and ultimately failure for individuals and communities. We argue that UC exemplifies a broader shift from social security to state-sanctioned social insecurity as policy reforms come to mimic the insecurities and risks commonly associated with the market

Worth its weight in gold: is the extractive industries transparency initiative a credible signalling mechanism to investors?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jamie Fraser
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Resource Governance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
Investor Expectations

Abstract This paper seeks to understand the link between resource governance and investor expectations in resource-rich countries. We test whether voluntary membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a public-private partnership that promotes transparency and accountability in the extractives sector, behaves as a credible signalling mechanism to investors that governments in resource-rich countries can manage resource revenue and adhere to sustainable fiscal policies in the medium and long run. Using an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a fixed effects model, we examine whether investor expectations on the price of sovereign debt behave as a credible signalling mechanism in the presence of certain conditions. Results indicate that in some cases there is a significant change in spread on the default price of sovereign debt as a result of announcement of either EITI candidacy or EITI compliance. However, it is clear that EITI membership alone is not a sufficient signal to investors that a country can effectively manage its resource revenues in the long run because the result of EITI implementation is heavily influenced by country-specific conditions.

scholarly journals State of Emergency and Human Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shohei Okamoto
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Human Contact

Background To help control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Japanese government declared a state of emergency (SoE) thrice. However, these were less stringent than other nations. It has not been assessed whether soft containment policies were sufficiently effective in promoting social distancing or reducing human contact. Methods Utilising the Google mobility index to assess social distancing behaviour in all Japanese prefectures between 15 February 2020 and 12 June 2021, mobility changes were assessed by an interrupted time-series analysis after adjusting for seasonality and various prefecture-specific fixed-effects and distinguishing potential heterogeneity across multiple SoEs and time passed after the declaration. Results The mobility index for retail and recreation showed an immediate decline after the declaration of the SoE by 12.78 percent-points (95%CI: -13.61 to -11.94) and a further decline after the initial period (beta: -0.93, 95%CI: -1.11 to -0.74), but gradually increased by 0.02 percent-points (95%CI: 0.02 to 0.02). This trend was similar for mobilities in other places. Among the three SoEs, the overall decline in human mobility outside the home in the third SoE was the least significant, suggesting that people were less compliant with social distancing measures during this period. Conclusion Although less stringent government responses to the pandemic may help promote social distancing by controlling human mobilities outside the home, their effectiveness may decrease if these interventions are repeated and enforced for extended periods, distorting one's health belief by heuristics biases. By combining these with other measures (i.e. risk-communication strategies), even mild containment and closure policies can be effective in curbing the spread of the virus.

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