Worth its weight in gold: is the extractive industries transparency initiative a credible signalling mechanism to investors?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Jamie Fraser
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Resource Governance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rich Countries ◽  
Investor Expectations

Abstract This paper seeks to understand the link between resource governance and investor expectations in resource-rich countries. We test whether voluntary membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a public-private partnership that promotes transparency and accountability in the extractives sector, behaves as a credible signalling mechanism to investors that governments in resource-rich countries can manage resource revenue and adhere to sustainable fiscal policies in the medium and long run. Using an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a fixed effects model, we examine whether investor expectations on the price of sovereign debt behave as a credible signalling mechanism in the presence of certain conditions. Results indicate that in some cases there is a significant change in spread on the default price of sovereign debt as a result of announcement of either EITI candidacy or EITI compliance. However, it is clear that EITI membership alone is not a sufficient signal to investors that a country can effectively manage its resource revenues in the long run because the result of EITI implementation is heavily influenced by country-specific conditions.

scholarly journals Profitability of Banks in Lebanon: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar ◽  
Ali Bolbol ◽  
Alexandre Mouradian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

<p>The paper, instead of relying on ad hoc measures, derives a simple theoretical model for the income of a commercial bank. This model identifies eight internal exogenous factors to the profitability of these banks. A total panel of 39 banks over the twelve-year period 2003-2014 is studied. The dependent variable is taken to be the return on average total assets (ROAA). The estimation procedure is through panel least squares.  Fixed effects and random effects are considered. The results support the cross section fixed effects model, which brings to light the heterogeneity of banks in Lebanon. Four out of the eight factors are found to be statistically highly significant, explaining about 50% of the variation in ROAA. These are: the interest rate spread, the capital adequacy ratio, the cost to income ratio, and the ratio of non-interest income to total assets. Dynamics are included in the model by adding to the regressors the first lag of the dependent variable. This makes for different short run and long run impacts, with the latter found to be higher than the former as economic theory postulates. Among other recommendations banks are advised to diversify their income towards more wealth management and investment banking, to pay particular attention to their traditional source of income, which is the interest rate spread between loans and deposits, and to manage carefully their cost structure.</p>

scholarly journals Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade under MFN and SAFTA: Do Institutional and Non-Institutional Arrangements Matter?

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasir Iqbal ◽  
Saima Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is two fold. First, to estimate the impact of institutional and non-institutional arrangements on bilateral trade, and second to analyse the impact of SAFTA on bilateral trade in the short as well as in the long run. The empirical analysis which is based on the panel of eight South Asian countries, comprising data over the period i.e. 1975–2013 is conducted using fixed effects model along with Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) estimator for estimating the short and long-run relationships. The analysis has shown that trade agreements including South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) are not effective in promoting trade, due to low institutional quality and stringent non-institutional arrangements, including high tariff along with low physical infrastructure. Further empirical analysis has shown that both SAFTA and MFN can only contribute to bilateral trade significantly, if complemented by institutional framework. As a policy lesson, to improve the trade ties between India and Pakistan, improvement in physical as well as soft infrastructure is required. Any trade agreements between the two, including MFN can only be effective, when it is supported by a well-defined and enforced institutional framework that ensure the implementation of policy reforms needed to reduce tariff rate and remove non-tariff barriers.

scholarly journals The political economy of crime: Did Universal Credit increase crime rates?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Tiratelli ◽  
Ben Bradford ◽  
Julia Yesberg
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
The Political ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Social Security Systems ◽  
Security Systems ◽  
Founding Fathers

Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime rates remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as Universal Credit enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite Universal Credit being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations.

scholarly journals State of Emergency and Human Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shohei Okamoto
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Human Contact

Background To help control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Japanese government declared a state of emergency (SoE) thrice. However, these were less stringent than other nations. It has not been assessed whether soft containment policies were sufficiently effective in promoting social distancing or reducing human contact. Methods Utilising the Google mobility index to assess social distancing behaviour in all Japanese prefectures between 15 February 2020 and 12 June 2021, mobility changes were assessed by an interrupted time-series analysis after adjusting for seasonality and various prefecture-specific fixed-effects and distinguishing potential heterogeneity across multiple SoEs and time passed after the declaration. Results The mobility index for retail and recreation showed an immediate decline after the declaration of the SoE by 12.78 percent-points (95%CI: -13.61 to -11.94) and a further decline after the initial period (beta: -0.93, 95%CI: -1.11 to -0.74), but gradually increased by 0.02 percent-points (95%CI: 0.02 to 0.02). This trend was similar for mobilities in other places. Among the three SoEs, the overall decline in human mobility outside the home in the third SoE was the least significant, suggesting that people were less compliant with social distancing measures during this period. Conclusion Although less stringent government responses to the pandemic may help promote social distancing by controlling human mobilities outside the home, their effectiveness may decrease if these interventions are repeated and enforced for extended periods, distorting one's health belief by heuristics biases. By combining these with other measures (i.e. risk-communication strategies), even mild containment and closure policies can be effective in curbing the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals The impact of Health Transformation Plan on natural vaginal delivery and cesarean section frequency in Iran: an interrupted time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farhad Lotfi ◽  
Saeed Lohivash ◽  
Zahra Kavosi ◽  
Sakine Owjimehr ◽  
Mohsen Bayati
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Cesarean Sections ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Vaginal Deliveries ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of the Iran’s Health Transformation Plan on the frequency of natural vaginal deliveries (NVDs), cesarean sections (CSs), and total deliveries in the Fars province of Iran. Results Average number of total deliveries before and after the reform were 3946 and 3810, respectively (p  =  0.164). The ratio of CS to total deliveries in the first study month was 54%. This rate reached 47% in the last month (p  <  0.01). However, it had much fluctuation trend. The ITSA results showed that in the short-run, the NVD rate increased (β  =  492.79, p  <  0.01), the rate of CS decreased (β  =  − 407.09, p  <  0.01), and total deliveries increased (β  =  85.75, p  <  0.724). However, in the long-run, the NVD (β  =  5.74, p  <  0.423), CS (β  =  10.21, p  <  0.189), and total deliveries (β  =  15.96, p  <  0.256) had no significant changes after the reform. Encouraging the NVD package was influential in the short-run but not in the longrun in Iran. Pricing and supply-side policies could not reduce the rate of non-clinical CS on their own. Therefore, paying attention to demand-side policies and changes in consumer behaviors, such as educating the women at the age of pregnancy about the advantages and disadvantages of CS and NVD and correcting misconceptions, could be helpful.

scholarly journals Water utilization and water quality in endogenous economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 626-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Souha El Khanji ◽  
John Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Water Quantity ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Water Utilization ◽  
Effect Of Water ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Per Capita

AbstractOur study examines the effect of water utilization together with the effect of water quality on economic growth across countries. We constructed a panel of 177 countries covering the period of 1960–2009. We analyse two dependent variables, gross domestic product per capita and the average of five years of growth. The analysis is conducted using a fixed effects model and fixed effects with instrumental variables. We find that although water utilization affects growth, water quality also proves to be highly significant and affects growth in both the short and long run to a greater degree than water quantity.

Dampak Kebijakan Moneter Pada Output Di Negara-Negara ASEAN Tahun 1980-2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70
Author(s):  
Nur Widiastuti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
State Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Impact

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis about the Effect of Bisphosphonates on the Risk of Skeletal-Related Event in Men with Prostate Cancer

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 1604-1612
Author(s):  
Congcong Wu ◽  
Hua Jiang ◽  
Jianghua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Related Event ◽  
Mineral Density ◽  
Skeletal Related Event

Background: Although the adjuvant therapy of bisphosphonates in prostate cancer is effective in improving bone mineral density, it is still uncertain whether bisphosphonates could decrease the risk of Skeletal- Related Event (SRE) in patients with prostate cancer. We reviewed and analyzed the effect of different types of bisphosphonates on the risk of SRE, defined as pathological fracture, spinal cord compression, radiation therapy to the bone, surgery to bone, hypercalcemia, bone pain, or death as a result of prostate cancer. Methods: A systemic literature search was conducted on PubMed and related bibliographies. The emphasis during data extraction was laid on the Hazard Ratio (HR) and the corresponding 95% Confidence Interval (CI) from every eligible Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). HR was pooled with the fixed effects model, and preplanned subgroup analyses were performed. Results: 5 RCTs (n = 4651) were included and analyzed finally after screening 51 articles. The meta-analysis of all participants showed no significant decrease in the risk of SRE when adding bisphosphonates to control group (HR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.874 - 1.072, p = 0.536) with low heterogeneity (I2 = 0.0% (d.f. = 4) p = 0.679). There was no significant improvement on SRE neither in the subgroups with Metastases (M1) or Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (CSPC) (respectively HR = 0.968, 95% CI = 0.874 - 1.072, p = 0.536, I2 = 0.0% (d.f. = 4) p = 0.679; HR = 0.954, 95% CI = 0.837 - 1.088, p = 0.484, I2 = 0.0% (d.f. = 3) p = 0.534). Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that bisphosphonates could not statistically significantly reduce the risk of SRE in patients with prostate cancer, neither in the subgroups with M1 or CSPC.

The effects of centralizing cancer surgery on postoperative mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 135581962110089
Author(s):  
Roberto Grilli ◽  
Federica Violi ◽  
Maria Chiara Bassi ◽  
Massimiliano Marino
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Meta Regression Analysis ◽  
After Cancer

Objectives To review the evidence of the effects of centralization of cancer surgery on postoperative mortality. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Cochrane and Scopus (up to November 2019) for studies that (i) assessed the effects of centralization of cancer surgery policies on in-hospital or 30-day mortality, or (ii) described changes in both postoperative mortality for a surgical intervention and degree of centralization using reduction in the number of hospitals or increases in the proportion of patients undergoing cancer surgery at high volume hospitals as proxy. PRISMA guidelines were followed. We estimated pooled odds ratios (OR) and conducted meta-regression to assess the relationship between degree of centralization and mortality. Results A total of 41 studies met our inclusion criteria of which 15 evaluated the effect of centralization policies on postoperative mortality after cancer surgery and 26 described concurrent changes in the degree of centralization and postoperative mortality. Policy evaluation studies mainly used before-after designs (n = 13) or interrupted time series analysis (n = 2), mainly focusing on pancreatic, oesophageal and gastric cancer. All but one showed some degree of reduction in postoperative mortality, with statistically significant effects demonstrated by six studies. The pooled odds ratio for centralization policy effect was 0.68 (95% Confidence interval: 0.54–0.85; I2 = 80%). Meta-regression analysis of the 26 descriptive studies found that an increase of the proportion of patients treated at high volume hospitals was associated with greater reduction in postoperative mortality. Conclusions Centralization of cancer surgery is associated with reduced postoperative mortality. However, existing evidence tends to be of low quality and estimates of the effect size are likely inflated. There is a need for prospective studies using more robust approaches, and for centralization efforts to be accompanied by well-designed evaluations of their effectiveness.

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