Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

scholarly journals Marijuana Legalization and Crime Clearance Rates: Testing Proponent Assertions in Colorado and Washington State

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Makin ◽  
Dale W. Willits ◽  
Guangzhen Wu ◽  
Kathryn O. DuBois ◽  
Ruibin Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health And Safety ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance ◽  
Crime Reports ◽  
Public Health And Safety

The legalization of recreational cannabis in Washington state (I-502) and Colorado (A-64) created a natural experiment with ancillary unknowns. Of these unknowns, one of the more heavily debated is that of the potential effects on public health and safety. Specific to public safety, advocates of legalization expected improvements in police effectiveness through the reduction in police time and attention to cannabis offenses, thus allowing them to reallocate resources to more serious offenses. Using 2010 to 2015 Uniform Crime Reports data, the research undertakes interrupted time-series analysis on the offenses known to be cleared by arrest to create monthly counts of violent and property crime clearance rate as well as disaggregated counts by crime type. Findings suggest no negative effects of legalization on crime clearance rates. Moreover, evidence suggests some crime clearance rates have improved. Our findings suggest legalization has resulted in improvements in some clearance rates.

Club convergence of crime rates in the United States of America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kolawole Ogundari
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Convergence Club ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The cyclical behavior of US crime rates reflects the dynamics of crime in the country. This paper aims to investigate the US's club convergence of crime rates to provide insights into whether the crime rates increased or decreased over time. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the probability of states converging to a particular convergence club of crime. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering 1976–2019. This yields a cross-state panel of 2,244 observations with 55 time periods and 51 groups. In addition, the author used a club clustering procedure to investigate the convergence hypothesis in the study. Findings The empirical results support population convergence of violent crime rates. However, the evidence that supports population convergence of property crime rates in the study is not found. Further analysis using the club clustering procedure shows that property crime rates converge into three clubs. The existence of club convergence in property crime rates means that the variation in the property crime rates tends to narrow among the states within each of the clubs identified in the study. Analysis based on an ordered probit model identifies economic, geographic and human capital factors that significantly drive the state's convergence club membership. Practical implications The central policy insight from these results is that crime rates grow slowly over time, as evident by the convergence of violent crime and club convergence of property crime in the study. Moreover, the existence of club convergence of property crime is an indication that policies to mitigate property crime might need to target states within each club. This includes the efforts to use state rather than national crime-fighting policies. Social implications As crimes are committed at the local level, this study's primary limitation is the lack of community-level data on crime and other factors considered. Analysis based on community-level data might provide a better representation of crime dynamics. However, the author hopes to consider this as less aggregated data are available to use in future research. Originality/value The paper provides new insights into the convergence of crime rates using the club convergence procedure in the USA. This is considered an improvement to the methods used in the previous studies.

scholarly journals The Spatial and Social Patterning of Property and Violent Crime in Toronto Neighbourhoods: A Spatial-Quantitative Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Wang ◽  
Gabby Lee ◽  
Ian Williams
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The City

Criminal activities are often unevenly distributed over space. The literature shows that the occurrence of crime is frequently concentrated in particular neighbourhoods and is related to a variety of socioeconomic and crime opportunity factors. This study explores the broad patterning of property and violent crime among different socio-economic stratums and across space by examining the neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and individual characteristics of offenders associated with crime in the city of Toronto, which consists of 140 neighbourhoods. Despite being the largest urban centre in Canada, with a fast-growing population, Toronto is under-studied in crime analysis from a spatial perspective. In this study, both property and violent crime data sets from the years 2014 to 2016 and census-based Ontario-Marginalisation index are analysed using spatial and quantitative methods. Spatial techniques such as Local Moran’s I are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of criminal activity while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Distance-to-crime is measured to explore the spatial behaviour of criminal activity. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression is conducted to explore the ways in which individual and neighbourhood demographic characteristics relate to crime rates at the neighbourhood level. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to further our understanding of the spatially varying relationships between crime and the independent variables included in the OLS model. Property and violent crime across the three years of the study show a similar distribution of significant crime hot spots in the core, northwest, and east end of the city. The OLS model indicates offender-related demographics (i.e., age, marital status) to be a significant predictor of both types of crime, but in different ways. Neighbourhood contextual variables are measured by the four dimensions of the Ontario-Marginalisation Index. They are significantly associated with violent and property crime in different ways. The GWR is a more suitable model to explain the variations in observed property crime rates across different neighbourhoods. It also identifies spatial non-stationarity in relationships. The study provides implications for crime prevention and security through an enhanced understanding of crime patterns and factors. It points to the need for safe neighbourhoods, to be built not only by the law enforcement sector but by a wide range of social and economic sectors and services.

Official Crime Rates and Residents’ Sense of Security Across Neighborhoods in Tokyo, Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimihiro Hino ◽  
Masaya Uesugi ◽  
Yasushi Asami
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Official Crime

The aim of this study was to investigate, in consideration of individual attributes and neighborhood-level social capital, the association between official crime rates and sense of neighborhood security among residents in the 23 wards of Tokyo, Japan, using data obtained from a national questionnaire survey and police statistics on crime for 511 neighborhoods. We found that crime rates affected residents’ sense of security differently according to the type of crime committed and the spatial scale. Regarding individual attributes, sense of security among men and those aged 35 to 49 years was in line with the actual property crime rate, whereas that among women and the elderly was in line with the actual violent crime rate. In addition, even when controlling for social capital, which had a strong positive effect on residents’ sense of security, and individual attributes, all crime rates except that for violent crime were significantly related to residents’ sense of security in their neighborhood.

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND CRIME IN THE PROVINCE OF ALBERTA

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian Stevens ◽  
Timothy Hartnagel ◽  
Dave Odynak ◽  
Jasmine Brazil
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Specific Composition ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Gender Specific

We present forecasts of crime rates in the Province of Alberta, Canada for the decade 2010 to 2020. The results suggest that rates of all types of crime in the province will drop between 2010 and 2020, largely because of the aging of the population. Our forecasts of crime rates rest on three projections of the age-specific and gender-specific composition of the population using sets of assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net migration. We then estimate the rates of total crime, violent crime, property crime, and other crime by taking the age composition of the projected populations into account and presuming that the age-specific crime rates observed from 2006 to 2009 remain constant.

Property Crime Clearance in Small Jurisdictions

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey J. Roth
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Police Departments ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Residential Instability ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Crime Clearance

Research on the factors that influence crime clearance rates has primarily studied violent crimes in large cities. However, property crimes are among the most commonly occurring and least frequently cleared offenses, and the majority of police departments in the United States serve small jurisdictions. Thus, this study undertook an examination of the predictors of clearance rates for burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft in a sample of agencies serving populations of 50,000 people or fewer. Independent variables included both policing factors (e.g., workload, funding, broken windows arrests) and social disorganization indicators (e.g., residential instability, poverty). Negative binomial regression analyses revealed variation in the significance of the predictors across the three crimes. Additionally, many predictors found to be influential in prior work were insignificant in this study, which suggests differences in the nature of crime clearance between large cities and smaller jurisdictions and a need for further research in this area.

An Investigation of the Influence of the Spatial Distribution of Neighborhood Violent Crime on Fear of Crime

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (13) ◽  
pp. 1757-1776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Barton ◽  
Frederick Weil ◽  
Melinda Jackson ◽  
Darien A. Hickey
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Protective Factor ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Criminal Victimization ◽  
Neighborhood Level ◽  
The U.S

Although crime rates dramatically declined during the 1990s, recent statistics indicated more than one third of the U.S. population continued to be afraid of areas within one mile of their home. Statistics such as this imply spatial dependence, but the importance of space in statistical analyses of fear of crime has remained relatively underexplored. The current study contributes to research on fear of crime by assessing the importance of crime rates in nearby neighborhood areas in addition to conventional individual- and neighborhood-level predictors of fear of criminal victimization. Results indicate that individuals who lived near neighborhoods that featured higher rates of violent crime were more likely to report being afraid of violent crime, but that the influence of violent crime rates in nearby neighborhoods was lessened after other features of their home neighborhood were controlled. In particular, the results highlight the importance of neighborhood communities as a protective factor against fear of crime.

scholarly journals Canadian crime rates in the penalty box

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Simon Demers
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Major League Baseball ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Additional Research ◽  
National Hockey League ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Violent Crime Rate ◽  
Major League

Over the 1962 to 2016 period, the Canadian violent crime rate has remained strongly correlated with National Hockey League (NHL) penalties. The Canadian property crime rate was similarly correlated with stolen base attempts in the Major League Baseball (MLB). Of course, correlation does not imply causation or prove association. It is simply presented here as an observation. Curious readers might be tempted to conduct additional research and ask questions in order to enhance the conversation, transition away from a state of confusion, clarify the situation, prevent false attribution, and possibly solve a problem that economists call identification.

scholarly journals Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Crime Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
Yongyu Zeng ◽  
Steven Kemp
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Series Analysis

AbstractMuch research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

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