The Civilian’s Dilemma: How Religious and Ethnic Minorities Survived the Islamic State Occupation of Northern Iraq

How did Iraq’s ethnic and religious minorities survive the Islamic State occupation of Ninewa governorate? Existing accounts of civilian behavior during wartime either essentialize social identity or ignore it altogether by reducing survival to cost-benefit calculations or political opportunism. Against the conventional wisdom, I argue that civilians adopt survival strategies based on the internal resources of their home communities. Specifically, civilians detect and respond to threats by drawing on a set of heuristics to discern combatants’ motives and intentions. I evaluate the key tenets of my theory through a mixed-methods research design of observational data and field interviews. I begin by analyzing migration patterns recorded in the United Nation’s Displacement Tracking Matrix. To understand how Iraqis who remained survived the conflict, I draw on original interviews with Iraqi peacebuilders from minority communities. I find that those who remained survived the conflict by mobilizing self-defense groups and collaborating with members of the anti-ISIS coalition. Opportunistic collaboration between minorities and ISIS insurgents was less common. My findings provide insights for scholars and practitioners interested in refugee return, resettlement, and reintegration in fragile states.