Testing the Validity of the Long Run Neutrality of Money in Nigeria

Research background: There is no consensus among scholars on the interaction effect between money supply, price, and wages despite various studies conducted to that effect. Purpose: This study investigates whether the neutrality of money assumption holds in the long run in Nigeria, using annual data from 1970 to 2018. Research methodology: The study utilized the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction (VECM) approach for estimation. Results: The results from the Phillips curve model contradict the classical school of economics assumption that money is neutral in the long run. This implies that in the Nigerian economy, money is not neutral in the long run. The long run Fishers’ effect model shows that the coefficient of LOG (CPI) exhibits a negative sign and is statistically significant at a 5% significant level, thus contradicting the hypothesis which states that a one percent increase in consumer prices will lead to an increase in the rate of interest by one percent. The coefficient of nominal money supply indicates a negative sign and insignificant statistically on the interest rate. The Short-run estimated results showed that the coefficient of the error correction term ECM (–1) indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically in the Fishers’ effect model. The result shows the actual and equilibrium values are corrected with adjustment speeds equal to 31% yearly. Novelty: The study recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure an effective implementation of monetary targeting measures in fine-tuning the economy and curbing inflationary pressures.

The Effect Of Price Policy On The Production And Breeding Of large Sheep flocks In Anbar Governorate (Al-Rutba District, an applied model)

Livestock constitute an essential and important part of the agricultural sector, and sheep are the mainstay in livestock, as their products come to the fore; Being an essential source of daily food; And because they also have a high nutritional value compared to plant products, and sheep are characterized by being highly efficient in food conversion, as it was mainly relied on the data obtained from the questionnaire form, where a random sample was taken of 20 sheep breeders whose sheep number exceeds 500 head of sheep. The results of this study showed that the transfers of traded inputs (J) with a negative sign, amounting to about (-9008) thousand dinars, which indicate that the social prices of traded inputs (F) are greater than private prices (B), which means that there is real support for the inputs. Stores within the applicable policy. The transfers of local resources (K) came with a negative sign and a value of (18249-) thousand dinars, which indicates the existence of support for local resources because their value at social prices is higher than their value at private prices, meaning that the protection is negative for the local product, while between the nominal protection coefficient for traded inputs which appeared With a positive value less than the correct one, its value amounted to (0.88), which indicates that the prices of traded inputs are lower than the prices of their international counterparts, and this confirms the existence of real support provided for these inputs by the state, and the cost factor of the local resource (comparative advantage factor) also appeared. With a positive sign, its value amounted to (0.24), which means that the Iraqi product has a comparative advantage and efficiency for its local production of sheep, while between the effective protection factor, which came with a positive value, its value was (0.30), which is less than one. This means that local producers receive their returns in the event that there are The price intervention policy is less than returns in the absence of it, and it showed that it is less than the right one, that is, the commodity system loses its profits in favor of other sectors.

Thermodynamics of climate change between cloud cover, atmospheric temperature and humidity

On a global and annual average, we find a parameterization in which the cloud cover increase is proportional to the mid tropospheric temperature increase, with a negative proportionality factor. If the relative humidity is conserved throughout the troposphere, a 1 °C heating (cooling) of the mid troposphere, decreases (increases) the cloud cover by 1.5 percentage points (pp). But if the relative humidity is not conserved, then the cloud cover decreases (increases) by 7.6 pp. If the shortwave reflection effect of the cloud cover is dominant on a global scale, this parameterization leads to a predominant positive feedback: if the temperature increases like in the current climate change, the cloud cover decreases and more solar radiation reaches the surface increasing the temperature even more. The contribution of the present work consists in finding that the negative sign of the proportionality factor is due to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation; that is, to the magnitude of the derivative of the saturation vapor pressure at the typical standard surface temperature of 288 K. The negative sign of the factor is independent on the conservation or non-conservation of relative humidity in the troposphere under climate change.

Valuation Сomponent of Metaphor UP vs. DOWN in German Political Cartoon

In German political cartoon the metaphor UP vs. DOWN introduces oppositions GOOD vs. BAD, MORE vs. LESS, UNREALIZABLE vs. PRACTICABLE. The paper describes their valuation components accenting the positive or negative sign of oppositions and its base in lexicon of the German language personality. Complex nature of cartoons, which are polycode texts, and their appeal to the language personality allow application of cognitive linguistics and methods of traditional linguistics. The paper demonstrates that political cartoons different realizations of this metaphor are visualized by levels: earth surface, above it, and below it. Certain valuation signs are fixed in realizations that gravitate towards the metaphor GOOD IS UP - BAD IS DOWN based on the human idea of levels structure of the world, which is a specific cognitive model reflected in German phraseology, inner form of words, traditional word combinations. Deviation from this model takes place by realization of the opposition UNREALIZABLE IS UP - PRACTICABLE IS DOWN, which is based on everyday pragmatism fixed in German phraseology. In this case the cartoonist creates special supports for the addressee to achieve correct understanding of his message. Distribution of signs in the opposition MORE IS UP - LESS IS DOWN is determined by the employed valuation grade, used by the cartoonist in his play with valuation signs to influence addressees opinion. Forming valuation signs of oppositions, the cartoonist bases on ideas reflected in the lexicon of the German language personality. This feature characterizes all realizations of metaphor UP vs. DOWN in political cartoons.

Zwischen logos und icon

In his contribution "Zwischen logos und icon. Gegenwartskunst als Anders-Ort der Theologie" (Between logos and icon. Contemporary art as other-place of theology) Ulrich Engel OP examines, starting from the iconic turn, the question what theology (which is primarily committed to the biblical WORD) can learn from IMAGES. Following Foucault's theory of heterotopias (other-places), the study focuses on works of contemporary visual art, which as other-places can expose and make visible hidden, overlooked, misunderstood mechanisms of exclusion. Four artistic positions (Pavel Büchler, Boris Mikhailov, Chris Martin, and Paloma Varga Weisz) are used to show how they cite Christian iconographic traditions and revisit them in a contemporary way. In the omissions and gaps that become apparent in these and structurally similar adaptations, de-emphasizations, and continuations, something appears that is already theologically inherent in the biblical prohibition of images. The Jewish prohibition of images is not an absolute one. For it reminds us that all positively painted images of God always need the theological negative sign, the aesthetic "empty space" in the image itself.

Behavioural errors and stock market investment decisions: recent evidence from Pakistan

PurposeThis study examines the role of behavioural factors, such as confidence, optimism, pessimism and rational expectation, in affecting investment decisions in the Pakistani stock market.Design/methodology/approachUsing daily trading data of KSE-100 index from January 2012 to December 2015, different regression models, including descriptive statistics and stationarity tests, are performed.FindingsResults indicate that stock market trading has suffered from pessimistic behaviour of investors. In the first model, the authors find a positive sign of confidence and negative sign of optimism with the trading volume. The second model shows a positive role of confidence and rational expectations in affecting the trading volume in daily, Monday and Friday samples. The results of the third model show a negative sign of both optimism and rational expectation with the trading volume. Furthermore, the next model shows a negative sign of confidence combined with pessimism while testing their relationship with the trading volume. Finally, results of the final model suggest that optimism negatively affects the trading volume, and on the other hand, pessimism has a positive impact on the trading volume.Research limitations/implicationsThe method and empirical testing of behavioural biases and their relationship with economic variable used in this study seem to be a promising way to better understand the role of psychology in deriving financial decisions for academics and policymakers.Originality/valueThis study uses secondary data for measuring behavioural biases and decomposes the effect between rational expectation and behavioural biases.

Second and fifth graders’ use of knowledge-pieces and knowledge-structures when solving integer addition problems

In this study, we explored second and fifth graders’ noticing of negative signs and incorporation of them into their strategies when solving integer addition problems. Fifty-one out of 102 second graders and 90 out of 102 fifth graders read or used negative signs at least once across the 11 problems. Among second graders, one of their most common strategies was subtracting numbers using their absolute values, which aligned with students’ whole number knowledge-pieces and knowledge-structure. They sometimes preserved the order of numbers and changed the placement of the negative sign (e.g., −9 + 2 as 9 – 2) and sometimes did the opposite (e.g., −1 + 8 as 8 – 1). Among fifth graders, one of the most common strategies reflected use of integer knowledge-pieces within a whole-number knowledge-structure, as they added numbers’ absolute values using whole number addition and appended the negative sign to their total. For both grade levels, the order of the numerals, the location of the negative signs, and also the numbers’ absolute values in the problems played a role in students’ strategies used. Fifth graders’ greater strategy variability often reflected strategic use of the meanings of the minus sign. Our findings provide insights into students’ problem interpretation and solution strategies for integer addition problems and supports a blended theory of conceptual change. Adding to prior findings, we found that entrenchment of previously learned patterns can be useful in unlikely ways, which should be taken up in instruction.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the appointment of acetylsalicylic acid for the prevention of obstetric complications by the method of logistic regression

Preeclampsia remains to be an urgent problem in the modern medicine, the main reason for which is the lack of high efficiency of treatment. One of the few methods with proven effectiveness is the prophylactic administration of aspirin at the beginning of the second trimester of pregnancy. At the same time, microcirculation disorders that underlie the development of preeclampsia are pathogenetically significant for other gestational complications.The objective: a study of the effectiveness of aspirin prescription for the prevention of preeclampsia and other complications during pregnancy using the logistic regression method.Materials and methods. The control group included 43 pregnant women with clinical criteria for preeclampsia. Forty six pregnant women with risk factors for preeclampsia who took acetylsalicylic acid from the 16-18 weeks of gestation formed the I group, and 46 pregnant women with risk factors for preeclampsia who did not take acetylsalicylic acid were included in the the II group. In all patients, on the basis of anamnesis data, risk factors and the course of the second trimester of pregnancy were analyzed, their correlation analysis and the use of acetylsalicylic acid were carried out, logistic regressions and simple decision trees were constructed.Results. The proposed logistic regression models have demonstrated their veracity by confirming the influence of traditional risk factors for the development of preeclampsia. At the same time, the use of these models allowed not only to prove the preventive effect of aspirin on the development of preeclampsia (the coefficient is statistically significant, with a negative sign), but also the ability to reduce the severity of preeclampsia. In addition, the negative sign of the coefficient was obtained when studying the effect of taking aspirin on such complications of pregnancy as premature birth and fetal growth retardation.Conclusions. 1. The use of a database of patients, statistical and model analysis of this dataset, allows you to establish and evaluate the relationship, their statistical significance between different factors. Based on the results of the research we can say with great confidence about the significant effect of prophylactic aspirin intake on reducing the risk of preeclampsia. 2. Taking aspirin reduces the likelihood of fetal growth retardation and premature birth. 3. The use of assisted reproductive technologies is positively correlated with the risk of developing preeclampsia. The influence of other traditional factors on the development of preeclampsia was proved by the method of logistic regression, which confirms the veracity of the proposed statistical model.

Apakah pengumuman resmi kasus pertama Covid-19 oleh Presiden Joko Widodo memiliki kandungan informasi? Event study pada saham-saham LQ-45

This study analyzes the phenomenon of the first case of Covid-19 transmission in Indonesia and its impact on the capital market in Indonesia. This study aims to test whether there is a negative PCAD pattern after the first announcement of the covid-19 virus transmission case on the Indonesian capital market and to prove that the Indonesian capital market experienced a significant decline in returns after the first announcement period of the covid-19 virus transmission. Stocks that are included as LQ45 stocks are being utilized and event study is the method to analyze the market response during the window period (t-10, t+10) and uses the independent sample t-test to compare the average abnormal return. mean (AAR) and mean cumulative abnormal return (CAAR). The results of this study indicate that the market takes a wait & see strategy, PCAD shows the form of a negative sign after the event and there is a difference between AAR and CAAR 10-days before and 10-days after the event. Overall, this research shows that the market has responded negatively to information related to the Covid-19 virus.

Decomposition Factors Household Energy Subsidy Consumption in Indonesia: Kaya Identity and LMDI Approach

For decades, the subsidy had prompted excessive and wasteful while offering little motivation to boost energy efficiency or reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper aimed to measure household subsidy energy by examining the relationship between the other ten variables. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and decomposition index were deployed to recognize the determinant effects that drive household's subsidy energy consumption. This study also presented an ARDL model applied. The robustness of the Granger Causality, Long-run, and Short-run causality during 1990-2017 was assessed. Based on LMDI, we found out that Population, Income Per Capita, Ratio National Renewal Energy over Fuel Fossil, Gross Capital Stock, Urban Household Consumption, and Ratio Household Subsidy were the positive factors that aggravate the change in household energy subsidy. The negative sign of Ratio National Energy Intensity effect, Ratio Fossil Renewal Energy effect, Ratio Capital Labour substitution, and Ratio Household over Labour Force signified the decreasing significance of less household energy subsidy. On the panel ARD-ECM, we identified a negative sign speed-of-adjustment and significant at 1%. It implied that all the ten variable effects were converging in the long run after an experience shocks. The equation parameters were considered stable since the CUSUM gets inside the two critical lines. Additional RESET test of the stability to ascertain whether the estimated model was linear or correctly specified has been performed.