scholarly journals Temporal Causality and Dynamics of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth in Vector Auto Regression (VAR) for Bangladesh, 1974-2003: Implication for Poverty Reduction

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.F.M. Kamrul Hassan ◽  
M. Rafiqul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Mutual Effect ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Integration Test

This paper examines whether financial development and openness to international trade can play any positive role in reducing poverty in Bangladesh through their growth enhancing effect. The paper takes granted that growth reduce poverty and makes econometric test to ascertain whether financial development and trade openness cause growth. Standard Granger-causality test is employed for this purpose. Variables are found first difference stationary without having any co-integrating relationship as reported by Johansen co-integration test. As such Granger-causality test is carried out in first difference VAR. The paper does not find any causal relationship between trade openness and growth, and financial development and growth. This implies that financial development and trade openness do not reduce poverty through their effect on growth. However, bi-directional causal link evidenced between financial development and trade openness indicates that these two can contribute to poverty reduction directly through their mutual effect on each other. Journal of Nepalese Business Studies Vol.2(1) 2005 pp.1-12

scholarly journals The Relation between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Case of Saudi Arabia as an Emerging Tourism Destination

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-47
Author(s):  
Lamia Jamel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test

This paper examines empirically the relation between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The authors try to justify how tourism contributes to the economic growth of Saudi Arabia. There are applied descriptive statistics, unit root test, VAR model and Granger Causality test as an econometric methodology to examine the connection between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the annual data in the period from 1990 to 2018. The main empirical results of the study find out that tourism affects positively the economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Also, there is found a positive nexus among tourism and economic growth. Furthermore, CO2 emissions and financial development impact positively the tourism sector, while trade openness predicts a negative effect on tourism. Additionally, CO2 emissions, financial development, and trade openness have a positive impact on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Finally, the Granger causality test provides evidence of bidirectional nexus between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. This paper contributes to the current research by explaining the causal nexus among tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia during the period from 1990 to 2018, applying a vector autoregressive model and Granger Causality.

Does Poverty Reduction Cause Economic Development

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Mariam Ijaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
The World

Extreme poverty is a threat faced by billions of people making economic development as a chief goal for most of the countries all over the world. Having a deep understanding of the whole gamut of poverty, this study attempts to empirically investigate that whether a causal link exists between poverty reduction and economic development or not? And if it exists, then what is the direction of that causal link. The Panel data cover 26 developing countries, on the basis of the availability of data, for the years from 1994 to 2015. Through Co-integration to Pairwise Granger Causality Test & Granger Causality based on VEC Model, this study analyses the causality between poverty reduction and economic development. This study, apart from poverty reduction, also incorporates some other independent variables affecting economic development. The trickle-up theory, adopted in this study, explains the channels through which poverty reduction could cause economic development. The main conclusion drawn from the empirical results is that a causal link running from poverty reduction to economic development exists. This implies that poverty reduction causes economic development.

Relationships between Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Fahri Seker ◽  
Murat Cetin ◽  
Birol Topcu ◽  
Gamze Yıldız Seren
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The aim of this chapter is to investigate the cointegration and causal relationship between financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Turkey for the period of 1980-2012. To analyze the data, the bounds testing and Johansen-Juselius approaches to cointegration and Granger causality test based on vector error-correction model are employed. The cointegration tests suggest that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The Granger causality test reveals long-run bidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. The findings also indicate unidirectional causality running from financial development to trade openness and economic growth in the long run as well as a bi-directional causality between financial development and economic growth in the short run. The results support supply-leading and trade-led growth hypotheses. Therefore, it can be suggested that Turkey can accelerate its economic growth by improving its financial systems and encouraging foreign trade.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

The Relationship Between Stock Market Indices of the Biggest Six Economies of the European Union and BIST 100

2020 ◽  
pp. 257-275
Author(s):  
Serdar Ögel ◽  
Fatih Temizel
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Var Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock market indices of the biggest six economies of the European Union and BIST 100. In this context, this study used the daily time series regarding indices of DAX for Germany, CAC 40 for France, FTSE MIB for Italy, IBEX 35 for Spain, AEX for Holland, FTSE 100 for United Kingdom, and BIST 100 for Turkey from 2014 to 2018. To test whether there is a co-integration relationship among indices, Johansen co-integration test was used. Since a co-integration relationship was not found between series, causality relationship between the European stock market indices and Turkey was tested with Granger causality test by establishing standard VAR model. As a result, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was found from DAX, FTSE 100, CAC 40, IBEX 35, and AEX to BIST 100 according to lag length 1 and 2. However, a unidirectional Granger causality relationship was only found from FTSE MIB to BIST 100 for lag length 1. For lag length 1 and 2, no causality relationship was found from BIST 100 to the selected European stock market indices.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals Granger Causality Between Local Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
Sri Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Integration Test

Objective - This study examines the causal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in West Kalimantan between 2009 and 2015. This research resulted in the enactment of Wagner's Law and/or Keynes's Theory in West Kalimantan leading the local government to take the right policies as an effort towards improving economic development. Methodology/Technique - By using panel data that combines time series data and cross-site data, it will be estimated by the Granger causality test which begins with a stationary test and co-integration test. Based on the co-integration tests, the results suggest that there is a long-term relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the Granger causality test, there is no reciprocal relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Findings - A direct relationship in the form of the influence of government expenditure on economic growth in West Kalimantan. Novelty - These results are in line with the Keynes's Theory through its national income function. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Co-integration; Causality. JEL Classification: F40, F43, F49.

scholarly journals Dose Remittances Matter for Openness and Financial Stability: Evidence From Least Developed Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Miao ◽  
Md. Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
System Gmm ◽  
Integration Test

The study's motivation is to gauge the effects of remittances on openness: financial and economic openness and financial stability in least developed countries (LDCs) for the period spanning 1975–2018. The study applies Generalized Moment of Methods (GMM) and System-GMM to detect the magnitude of remittances, gross capital formation, and government debt on openness and financial stability, and their directional association is established by performing a Granger causality test with System-GMM specification. The results of cross-sectional dependency ascertain the presence of a common dynamic among the research units; on the other hand, both first, and second-generation unit root tests establish that variables are integrated either at level or after the first difference, neither variables are exposed to order of integration after second difference. A panel co-integration test based on error correction confirms the availability of the long-run association among variables. Study findings with GMM and System-GMM estimation expose positive statistically significant effects of remittance inflows to economic and financial openness and financial stability. In LDCs, remittance inflows positively augment economic and financial openness; moreover, financial stability remittances play a critical role. The study implemented the Granger causality test with System-GMM specification, and results disclosed the feedback hypothesis that is bidirectional causality availability in the tested empirical causal model.JEL Classifications: F24, F43, P34.

Dynamic linkages among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shelly Singhal ◽  
Sangita Choudhary ◽  
Pratap Chandra Biswal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context. Design/methodology/approach This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study. Findings Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market). Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.

scholarly journals Interactions between Economic Growth, FDI and Islamic Banking Development in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salih Kalayci ◽  
Behic Efe Tekin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Banking Development

<span lang="EN-US">In this research paper, the quarter data has been collected from Turkish Central Bank in order to determine the relationship between economic growth, FDI and participation banks of Turkey over the periods of 2002 - 2014. Several econometrical models have been implemented to reveal this relation among variables. In this context, it has been found that there is a long-term linkage between economic growth, FDI and breakdown of participation funds in Islamic banking by implementing Johansen co-integration test. On the other hand, according to Granger causality test (GCT), when the lag number is 3, there is a bidirectional relationship between GDP and participation funds in Islamic banking. According to results of both Johansen co-integration and Granger causality test, the contribution of Islamic banking to*the economic growth of Turkey is so vital. The linear regression analysis has to be used to reply the research questions. The results indicated that there is the considerable impact of GDP on Islamic bank deposits in Turkey which is founded 0.0006.</span>

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