Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability streamflows for streams in Kansas based on data through water year 2015

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin C. Painter ◽  
David C. Heimann ◽  
Jennifer L. Lanning-Rush
Keyword(s):  
Exceedance Probability

ASSESSMENT OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF HISTORIC DANUBE FLOODS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stevan Prohaska ◽  
◽  
Aleksandra Ilić ◽  
Pavla Pekarova ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Simultaneous Occurrence ◽  
Flood Wave ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Comprehensive Method ◽  
Flood Hydrograph

Data on historic floods along the Danube River exist since the year 1012. In the Middle Ages, floods were estimated based on historical documents, including original handwritten notes, newspaper articles, chronicles, formal letters, books, maps and photographs. From 1500 until the beginning of organized water regime observations, floods were hydraulically reconstructed based on water marks on old buildings in cities along the Danube (Passau, Melk, Emmersdorf an der Donau, Spilz, Schonbuhen and Bratislava). The paper presents a procedure for assessing the statistical significance of registered historic floods using a comprehensive method for defining theoretical flood hydrographs at hydrological stations. The approach is based on correlation analysis of two basic flood hydrograph parameters – maximum hydrograph ordinate (peak) and flood wave volume. The PROIL model is used to define the probability of simultaneous occurrence of these parameters. It defines the exceedance probability of two random variables, in the specific case two hydrograph parameters of the form: P{Qmax more equal to qmax,p)∩(Wmax more equal to wmax,p)} = P (1) where: Qmax – maximum hydrograph ordinate (peak); qmax,p – maximum discharge of the probability of occurrence p; Wmax – maximum hydrograph volume; wmax,p – maximum flood wave volume of the probability of occurrence p; P – exceedance probability. Spatial positions of the lines of exceedance of two flood hydrograph parameters and the empirical points of the corresponding parameters of the considered historic flood in the correlation field Qmax - Wmax, allow direct assessment of the exceedance probability of a historic flood, or its statistical significance. The proposed procedure was applied in practice to assess the statistical significance of the biggest floods registered along the Danube in the sector from its mouth to the Djerdap 1 Dam. The linear trend in the time-series of maximum annual flows at a representative hydrological station and the frequency of historic floods in the considered sector of the Danube are discussed at the end of the paper.

Inclusion of Aircraft Crash into NPP Design Bases and Probabilistic Justification of Loads on Civil Structures and Equipment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
Nikita Chernukha
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Response Spectra ◽  
Mechanical Action ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Civil Structures ◽  
Method Of Calculation ◽  
Floor Response Spectra ◽  
Aircraft Trajectory ◽  
Probabilistic Justification ◽  
Aircraft Crash

The article is about nuclear power plant (NPP) safety analysis in case of aircraft crash. Specifically, the article considers the following problems: inclusion of aircraft crash into NPP design bases regarding calculation of frequency of an aircraft crash into NPP; aspects of justification of loads on NPP structures, systems and components (SSCs) caused by mechanical action of a primary missile – aircraft fuselage impact. Probabilistic characteristics of such random parameters as frequency of aircraft crash and direction of aircraft trajectory are determined by the results of analysis of world statistics of aviation accidents. Method of calculation of aircraft crash frequency on structures, buildings and NPP as a whole is presented. It takes into account options of accidental and intentional aircraft crashes and various aircraft approach scenarios. Procedure of probabilistic justification of loads on civil structures under aircraft impact is described. The loads are specified so as not to exceed allowable value of failure probability of NPP as a whole. Calculation of failure frequency of civil structures of existing NPP is given as an example to show analysis in case of a crash of an aircraft heavier than considered in NPP design. Procedure of probabilistic justification of dynamic loads on NPP equipment in case of aircraft impact is described. Method of floor response spectra (FRS) calculation with the required non-exceedance probability is given. Probabilistically justified loads in case of intentional aircraft impact (act of terrorism) are also considered. Additionally it is presented how internal forces calculated with the use of FRS with the required non-exceedance probability can be summed to provide analysis of subsystems.

scholarly journals A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 775-789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Monsieurs ◽  
Olivier Dewitte ◽  
Alain Demoulin
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Rainfall Threshold ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Satellite Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Estimates

Abstract. Rainfall threshold determination is a pressing issue in the landslide scientific community. While major improvements have been made towards more reproducible techniques for the identification of triggering conditions for landsliding, the now well-established rainfall intensity or event-duration thresholds for landsliding suffer from several limitations. Here, we propose a new approach of the frequentist method for threshold definition based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with landslide susceptibility data. Adopting a bootstrap statistical technique for the identification of threshold uncertainties at different exceedance probability levels, it results in thresholds expressed as AR = (α±Δα)⋅S(β±Δβ), where AR is antecedent rainfall (mm), S is landslide susceptibility, α and β are scaling parameters, and Δα and Δβ are their uncertainties. The main improvements of this approach consist in (1) using spatially continuous satellite rainfall data, (2) giving equal weight to rainfall characteristics and ground susceptibility factors in the definition of spatially varying rainfall thresholds, (3) proposing an exponential antecedent rainfall function that involves past daily rainfall in the exponent to account for the different lasting effect of large versus small rainfall, (4) quantitatively exploiting the lower parts of the cloud of data points, most meaningful for threshold estimation, and (5) merging the uncertainty on landslide date with the fit uncertainty in a single error estimation. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift based on landslides that occurred between 2001 and 2018, satellite rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 RT), and the continental-scale map of landslide susceptibility of Broeckx et al. (2018) and provide the first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.

scholarly journals Reassessing Existing Reservoir Supply Capacity and Management Resilience under Climate Change and Sediment Deposition

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1819
Author(s):  
Eleni S. Bekri ◽  
Polychronis Economou ◽  
Panayotis C. Yannopoulos ◽  
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Sediment Deposition ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Management Scenario ◽  
Supply Capacity

Freshwater resources are limited and seasonally and spatially unevenly distributed. Thus, in water resources management plans, storage reservoirs play a vital role in safeguarding drinking, irrigation, hydropower and livestock water supply. In the last decades, the dams’ negative effects, such as fragmentation of water flow and sediment transport, are considered in decision-making, for achieving an optimal balance between human needs and healthy riverine and coastal ecosystems. Currently, operation of existing reservoirs is challenged by increasing water demand, climate change effects and active storage reduction due to sediment deposition, jeopardizing their supply capacity. This paper proposes a methodological framework to reassess supply capacity and management resilience for an existing reservoir under these challenges. Future projections are derived by plausible climate scenarios and global climate models and by stochastic simulation of historic data. An alternative basic reservoir management scenario with a very low exceedance probability is derived. Excess water volumes are investigated under a probabilistic prism for enabling multiple-purpose water demands. Finally, this method is showcased to the Ladhon Reservoir (Greece). The probable total benefit from water allocated to the various water uses is estimated to assist decision makers in examining the tradeoffs between the probable additional benefit and risk of exceedance.

scholarly journals Active-subspace analysis of exceedance probability for shallow-water waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 126 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenan Šehić ◽  
Henrik Bredmose ◽  
John D. Sørensen ◽  
Mirza Karamehmedović
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Water ◽  
Water Waves ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Subspace Analysis ◽  
Shallow Water Waves ◽  
Active Subspace

scholarly journals The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 666
Author(s):  
Mahkameh Zarekarizi ◽  
K. Joel Roop-Eckart ◽  
Sanjib Sharma ◽  
Klaus Keller
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Water Surface ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surface Elevation ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Water Surface Elevation ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Probability Maps ◽  
Flood Probability ◽  
Floodplain Development

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

Probabilistic nature of storage delay parameter of the hydrologic model RORB: a case study for the Cooper's Creek catchment in Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 400-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hitesh Patel ◽  
Ataur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Accurate Design ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

In rainfall–runoff modeling, Design Event Approach is widely adopted in practice, which assumes that the rainfall depth of a given annual exceedance probability (AEP), can be converted to a flood peak of the same AEP by assuming a representative fixed value for the other model inputs/parameters such as temporal pattern, losses and storage-delay parameter of the runoff routing model. This paper presents a case study which applies Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) to assess the probabilistic nature of the storage delay parameter (kc) of the RORB model for the Cooper's Creek catchment in New South Wales, Australia. It has been found that the values of kc exhibit a high degree of variability, and different sets of plausible values of kc result in quite different flood peak estimates. It has been shown that a stochastic kc in the MCST provides more accurate design flood estimates than a fixed representative value of kc. The method presented in this study can be adapted to other catchments/countries to derive more accurate design flood estimates, in particular for important flood study projects, which require a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impacts of parameter uncertainty on design flood estimates.

Dynamic Responses Analysis of Permeable Breakwater Subjected to Random Waves

2014 ◽  
Vol 1061-1062 ◽  
pp. 809-812
Author(s):  
Hu Ping
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element Method ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Random Waves ◽  
The Finite Element Method ◽  
Wave Load ◽  
Power Spectral ◽  
Density Analysis ◽  
Element Method

In this paper, based on the finite element method and ANSYS software, the dynamic responses of permeable breakwater under wave load response is analyzed and studied. Taking the method of combining modal analysis and power spectrum analysis research on dynamic response of breakwater in the frequency domain and the principal stress and displacement distribution of the structure in the exceedance probability of 0.7%. The results prove that the finite element method of power spectral density analysis can provide effective guidance for the actual engineering.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document