scholarly journals Monetary policy under economic transformation in Ukraine

2019 ◽  
pp. 173-184
Author(s):  
Mykola Pasichnyi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Functional Improvement ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Bank System

The research subject includes the theoretical basis and mechanisms of monetary policy formation and realization as an instrument of macroeconomic regulation. The aim of the study is to determine the features of domestic monetary policy and to systemize the policy’s stages under economic transformations. Methods. In order to achieve the appropriate tasks, we used a set of methods and approaches, that helped to ensure the conceptual unity of our investigation. The dialectical, systemic and structural approaches, methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, scientific abstraction are applied. Results. The peculiarities of formation and realization of monetary policy of Ukraine under economic transformations are determined. The main stages of national monetary policy’s development are systemized. The dynamics of monetization, exchange rate and index of consumer price from 1992 to 2018 is investigated. Practical implications. Monetaryl policy and instruments of its implementation. Conclusions. Nowadays, the monetary policy has a formed institutional mechanism in order to reach the main goal and tasks. We identified the main phases of monetary policy of Ukraine. In the initial stage the main elements of monetary architectonics are established, also the powers and tasks of central bank are defined. The stage of functional improvement characterized by the restriction on central bank repayment of bonds on the primary market, decreasing the monetization of national economy, introducing the currency exchange corridor. At the steady development phase, we determined the exchange rate stability and gradual increasing of monetization level. Within the transitional stage of modification, the raising of monetization was continued, moreover, the combined using of methods on the currency market was carried out to stabilize it. Also, National bank defined the priority directions to enhance the bank system. The stage of institutional modernization is characterized by the monetary strategy formation, increasing the central bank institutional and financial independence, the adoption of inflation targeting regime, the improving of basic statements of currency transaction, the developing of macroprudential regulation to ensure financial stability.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Main Regulator

Abstract The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Anchors: Firm-Level Evidence

2010 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 695-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lawrence Broz ◽  
Michael Plouffe
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Level Data

AbstractAnalyses of monetary policy posit that exchange-rate pegs, inflation targets, and central bank independence can help anchor private-sector inflation expectations. Yet there are few direct tests of this argument. We offer cross-national, micro-level evidence on the effectiveness of monetary anchors in controlling private-sector inflation concerns. Using firm-level data from eighty-one countries (approximately 10,000 firms), we find evidence that “international” anchors (exchange-rate commitments) correlate significantly with a substantial reduction in private-sector concerns about inflation while “domestic” anchors (inflation targeting and central bank independence) do not. Our conjecture is that private-sector inflation expectations are more responsive to exchange-rate anchors because they are more transparent, more constraining, and more costly than domestic anchoring arrangements.

scholarly journals Communication as an instrument for enhancing trust in a central bank: the case of Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliia Shapoval ◽  
Kateryna Anufriieva ◽  
Svitlana Brus ◽  
Yevhen Bublyk
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Communication Policy ◽  
Market Participants

The relevance of trust in the central bank is determined by the rapid growth of the gap between the expectations of a regulator and market participants regardless of the reforms carried out by the NBU. Therefore, the need to use the “non-traditional” monetary policy instruments has enhanced the role of verbal interventions in the context of inflation targeting. The aim of the article is to ground that trust causes adequate rational behavior of the market participants in response to the central bank’s communication policy. The type of this research is an explanatory research method. As determined, trust is the necessary condition for the effectiveness of the central bank’s communication strategy and it favors the achievement of proclaimed objectives. It is established that although since 2014 the NBU activated verbal interventions as an additional instrument to anchor expectations, the increase of transparency does not prompt the trust because of the lack of confidence of citizens in the NBU and high level of stress in the domestic financial sector. It is emphasized that the pursuit of inflation targeting requires expanded communication to gather the expectations of economic agents. The NBU, in its communication policy concerning the economic climate, underlines devaluation expectations, the exchange rate and explanations on the discount rate. However, the deviation of expected enterprises’ exchange rate from the actual exchange rate, growing velocity of money circulation against the declining share of funds involved in the banking system, low monetization level and low penetration of financial services evidence the distrust in monetary policy.

scholarly journals Recent Monetary Policy in Turkey: Capital Flow, Reserves and Exchange Rate

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şaziye Gazioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Flow ◽  
Capital Inflows

In this paper, we investigate the recent monetary policies and development of Turkish banking system during the post 2001 financial and banking crisis. We explore the effects of capital inflows and outflows to real exchange rates and the real stock market prices, before and after the financial crisis. We investigate the relationship between real exchange rate, real stock prices and capital flows. We decompose the foreign flows into real assets and liabilities, in order to investigate the possible long-term effect of inflows and outflows. Reversal of capital flow seems to create a possibility of exchange rate crisis. The Turkish Central Bank by taking lessons from this experience they formulate their recent policies accordingly. Recent Monetary Policy mix in Turkey aims to have financial stability by increasing the reserve ratio in each component of capital flows in Turkey. The ratio increases shorter the period of the asset. The Central Bank work claims to have an effect similar to inflation targeting.

scholarly journals Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sinyakov ◽  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014-2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer’s (2013) IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables). In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector.

INFLATION TARGETING, CREDIT FLOWS, AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A REGIME CHANGE MODEL

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 59-89
Author(s):  
Marco Gross ◽  
Willi Semmler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
The State ◽  
State Dependent

Recent papers point to the problem that inflation-targeting models do not as of yet consider financial market stability that can considerably derail inflation-targeting monetary policy, implying significant nonzero crisis probabilities that could come along with large negative output and employment gaps. Credit flows and the instability of credit appear to be at the root of the financial instability problem. On the other hand, some authors recently questioned whether a too early and too strong leaning against the wind policy by central banks might have higher costs than benefits in terms of output and employment losses. In our paper, we include in an inflation targeting model a financial stabilization goal. In contrast to infinite horizon and two-period models, we propose a finite horizon model. The model is solved by using a new global solution algorithm, called Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC), exploring stabilizing/destabilizing effects of price and nonprice (credit volume) drivers of the output gap, inflation, and credit flows. We substantiate the theoretical part of the paper by approaching the subject empirically, relying to that end on a regime-switching structural vector autoregressive (VAR) for the euro area. The empirical model contains standard macroeconomic variables along with credit flows and loan interest rates, the central bank policy rate, and European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet variables. The regime-switching feature of the model is meant to capture the state-dependent relationship between the variables, with specific nonlinearities having direct counterparts in the theoretical model. Based on a sign restriction methodology, we explore conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks, loan supply, and demand shocks, under different regime assumptions to reveal the state-dependent effects of both interest rate and volume-based policies. The empirical results are used as guidance for the calibration of the theoretical model variants.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

Europäische Zentralbank: kontraproduktive unkonventionelle Geldpolitik und der Euro-Wechselkurs / European Central Bank: counter-productive unconventional monetary policy and the exchange rate

ORDO ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Europäische Zentralbank

ZusammenfassungDie EZB sollte der Versuchung widerstehen, die Deflationsgefahr in der Eurozone durch zusätzliche Varianten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik (z.B. „Quantitative Easing“) zu bekämpfen. Was in den USA oder in Großbritannien geklappt haben mag, wird in der Eurozone nicht funktionieren. Es besteht gar die Gefahr einer Deflationsspirale, wie dieser Beitrag zeigt. Eingebettet werden die Argumente in die aktuelle Debatte um den „zu starken“ Euro.

scholarly journals Regular Econometric Model of Taylor for Albania

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Assets

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.

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