scholarly journals Rice trade policy and productivity: empirical evidence from Nigeria’s Rice sub-sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-106
Author(s):  
Ogheneruemu Obi-Egbedi ◽  
Olaide A Akin-Olagunju ◽  
Isaac B Oluwatayo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling ◽  
Rice Trade

Low productivity, modest production and large-scale importation characterize Nigeria’s rice subsector despite government intervention through trade policy measures since independence. Studies on Nigeria’s trade policy and rice productivity are scanty in the literature. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of the country’s rice trade policy on rice productivity from 1961-2017, employing the Vector Error Correction Modeling approach. The results show that protectionist trade policy reduced rice productivity in the short run but was not significant in the long run. Producer price and domestic consumption improved rice productivity in the short run although, the latter reduced productivity in the long run. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and exchange rate reduced productivity in the short run but exchange rate increased productivity in the long run. Thus, government should focus on exchange rate, liberalized trade policy and appropriate fertilizer policy to improve Nigeria’s rice productivity.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals Determinants of Inflation in the Local Economy

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Jaka Sriyana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research analyzes the determinants of inflation rate in the local economy. It uses co-integration and vector error correction to capture the long and short run relationship between inflation rate and other economic variables. We find that the determinants of inflation rate in Yogyakarta are minimum wage, economic growth, and monetary variables indicated by BI-rate.  More finding, exchange rate also contributes to the price change. This research finds evidence of long-run causality between minimum wage and inflation and unidirectional relationship from wage to inflation in the short run. This finding confirms the proposition of non-neutrality wage on price changes. The inflation rate in the local economy depends not only on the regional indicator but also depends on international changes reflected in the exchange rate. Monetary variable indicated by BI- rate also partially contributes to the price changes at the local level. Overall, the local government has successfully managed the price changes.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v17i1.7146

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Nor Ermawati Hussain ◽  
Hafizah Abdul Rarhim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Integration Technique ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

Interest-rate causality between the federal funds rate and long-run market interest rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-401
Author(s):  
Hongkil Kim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Empirical Relations ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

This paper investigates empirical relations between the federal funds rate/federal funds future rate and long-run market interest rates, employing a cointegration technique, vector error-correction modeling, and the Granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). As a result, stable long-run relationships between the federal funds rate and Treasury bond rates are identified in the form of bidirectional causalities that are supportive of the Structuralist position, while the findings indicate unidirectional causalities from the federal funds rate to the Treasury bond rates in the short run. Empirical evidence in this paper also rejects the Horizontalist view that the expected future federal funds rate is relevant to current movements of the long-run interest rates, demonstrating Moore (1991) and his followers’ reverse interpretation on the causality from market rates to the federal funds rate to be inaccurate. An implication of such findings is that the current and the expected future federal funds rate do not have as much exogenous power on long-run market rates as claimed by Horizontalists, and the federal funds rate is, rather, endogenous to market rates for the 2004:2–2008:8 period.

EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH FOR SELECTED ASIAN ECONOMIES

2001 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 247-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
MUN-HENG TOH ◽  
HWEI-JING HO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

This paper investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through for the selected Asian countries namely Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, and Singapore. Unlike past studies, this paper focuses on small open economies and includes exports of primary commodities in the investigation. We utilize cointegration techniques based on Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen and Juselius (1990), and error correction modeling, to provide a more robust and rigorous investigation of the long run and short run pass-through of exchange rates. It is found that, in general, the degree of pass-through is high, although there is a small extent of pricing to market found for all countries. For Malaysia, the degree of pricing to market found suggests that there is intense competition in the export industries. In the case of Thailand, there is almost complete pass-through and this conforms to our a priori expectations. In the case of Singapore and Taiwan, we detect a higher degree of pass-through compared to past studies. For a country, the high degree of pass-through will support the adoption of more flexible exchange rate oriented monetary policies, and for firms it will reveal the limits of their price setting behavior amidst international competition.

Electricity consumption and income nexus: evidence from Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1020-1037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sima Rani Dey
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
National Income ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption (PCEC) and per capita gross national income (GNI) (PCGNI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1971-2014. Design/methodology/approach Vector error correction modeling approach. Findings The study reveals that positive short-run unidirectional causal flow running between PCEC to PCGNI without feedback which implies that an increase in electricity consumption promptly affects economic activity. The results of both long-run and joint causality yield strong evidence of bidirectional causal relationship between PCEC and per capita real GNI with feedback. Originality/value Therefore, both electricity generation and conservation policy will be effective for Bangladesh economy. So, smooth supply of electricity is necessary to meet the growing electricity demand for consumption; consequently, it will lead to sustain of growth and take it even higher level.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

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